The texas sharpshooter
(reading time – 30 sec.)
You cherry-picked a data cluster to suit your argument, or found a pattern to fit a presumption.
This 'false cause' fallacy is coined after a marksman shooting randomly at barns and then painting bullseye targets around the spot where the most bullet holes appear, making it appear as if he's a really good shot. Clusters naturally appear by chance, but don't necessarily indicate that there is a causal relationship.
Example: The makers of Sugarette Candy Drinks point to research showing that of the five countries where Sugarette drinks sell the most units, three of them are in the top ten healthiest countries on Earth, therefore Sugarette drinks are healthy.
Topic: #LogicalFallacy
Source: yourlogicalfallacyis.com
(reading time – 30 sec.)
You cherry-picked a data cluster to suit your argument, or found a pattern to fit a presumption.
This 'false cause' fallacy is coined after a marksman shooting randomly at barns and then painting bullseye targets around the spot where the most bullet holes appear, making it appear as if he's a really good shot. Clusters naturally appear by chance, but don't necessarily indicate that there is a causal relationship.
Example: The makers of Sugarette Candy Drinks point to research showing that of the five countries where Sugarette drinks sell the most units, three of them are in the top ten healthiest countries on Earth, therefore Sugarette drinks are healthy.
Topic: #LogicalFallacy
Source: yourlogicalfallacyis.com
Distinction Bias
(reading time – 50 sec.)
Distinction bias is the tendency to view two options as more distinctive when evaluating them simultaneously than when evaluating them separately.
For example, when televisions are displayed next to each other on the sales floor, the difference in quality between two very similar, high-quality televisions may appear great. A consumer may pay a much higher price for the higher-quality television, even though the difference in quality is imperceptible when the televisions are viewed in isolation. Because the consumer will likely be watching only one television at a time, the lower-cost television would have provided a similar experience at a lower cost.
Topic: #CognitiveBiases
Source: Wikipedia
(reading time – 50 sec.)
Distinction bias is the tendency to view two options as more distinctive when evaluating them simultaneously than when evaluating them separately.
For example, when televisions are displayed next to each other on the sales floor, the difference in quality between two very similar, high-quality televisions may appear great. A consumer may pay a much higher price for the higher-quality television, even though the difference in quality is imperceptible when the televisions are viewed in isolation. Because the consumer will likely be watching only one television at a time, the lower-cost television would have provided a similar experience at a lower cost.
Topic: #CognitiveBiases
Source: Wikipedia
Bandwagon Effect
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The bandwagon effect is a phenomenon whereby the rate of uptake of beliefs, ideas, fads and trends increases the more that they have already been adopted by others. In other words, the bandwagon effect is characterized by the probability of individual adoption increasing with respect to the proportion who have already done so. As more people come to believe in something, others also "hop on the bandwagon" regardless of the underlying evidence.
The bandwagon effect explains why there are fashion trends.
Topic: #CognitiveBiases
Source: Wikipedia
(reading time – 30 sec.)
The bandwagon effect is a phenomenon whereby the rate of uptake of beliefs, ideas, fads and trends increases the more that they have already been adopted by others. In other words, the bandwagon effect is characterized by the probability of individual adoption increasing with respect to the proportion who have already done so. As more people come to believe in something, others also "hop on the bandwagon" regardless of the underlying evidence.
The bandwagon effect explains why there are fashion trends.
Topic: #CognitiveBiases
Source: Wikipedia
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Information Bias
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Information bias is a type of cognitive bias that describes the tendency to seek information when it does not affect action. People can often make better predictions or choices with less information: more information is not always better. An example of information bias is believing that the more information that can be acquired to make a decision, the better, even if that extra information is irrelevant for the decision
Topic: #CognitiveBiases
Source: Wikipedia
(reading time – 20 sec.)
Information bias is a type of cognitive bias that describes the tendency to seek information when it does not affect action. People can often make better predictions or choices with less information: more information is not always better. An example of information bias is believing that the more information that can be acquired to make a decision, the better, even if that extra information is irrelevant for the decision
Topic: #CognitiveBiases
Source: Wikipedia
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The Best Posts of 2017
Expert Intuition
https://news.1rj.ru/str/feedbrain/23
Harry Potter and Methods of Rationality
https://news.1rj.ru/str/feedbrain/31
The False-Consensus Effect
https://news.1rj.ru/str/feedbrain/68
The Self-Serving Bias
https://news.1rj.ru/str/feedbrain/71
The Availability Heuristic
https://news.1rj.ru/str/feedbrain/78
Confirmation Bias
https://news.1rj.ru/str/feedbrain/79
Reciprocation
https://news.1rj.ru/str/feedbrain/84
Happy New Year😉
Expert Intuition
https://news.1rj.ru/str/feedbrain/23
Harry Potter and Methods of Rationality
https://news.1rj.ru/str/feedbrain/31
The False-Consensus Effect
https://news.1rj.ru/str/feedbrain/68
The Self-Serving Bias
https://news.1rj.ru/str/feedbrain/71
The Availability Heuristic
https://news.1rj.ru/str/feedbrain/78
Confirmation Bias
https://news.1rj.ru/str/feedbrain/79
Reciprocation
https://news.1rj.ru/str/feedbrain/84
Happy New Year😉
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Critical thinking
EXPERT INTUITION
We have all heard such stories of expert intuition: the chess master who walks past a street game and announces “White mates in three” without stopping, or the physician who makes a complex diagnosis after a single glance at a patient. Expert…
We have all heard such stories of expert intuition: the chess master who walks past a street game and announces “White mates in three” without stopping, or the physician who makes a complex diagnosis after a single glance at a patient. Expert…
Availability Cascade
(reading time – 10 sec.)
A self-reinforcing process in which a collective belief gains more and more plausibility through its increasing repetition in public discourse (or "repeat something long enough and it will become true").
Topic: #CognitiveBiases
Source: Wikipedia
(reading time – 10 sec.)
A self-reinforcing process in which a collective belief gains more and more plausibility through its increasing repetition in public discourse (or "repeat something long enough and it will become true").
Topic: #CognitiveBiases
Source: Wikipedia
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Frequency Illusion
(reading time – 30 sec.)
The illusion in which a word, a name, or other thing that has recently come to one's attention suddenly seems to appear with improbable frequency shortly afterwards. This illusion may explain some examples of the Baader-Meinhof phenomenon, when someone repeatedly notices a newly learned word or phrase shortly after learning it.
Topic: #CognitiveBiases
Source: Wikipedia
(reading time – 30 sec.)
The illusion in which a word, a name, or other thing that has recently come to one's attention suddenly seems to appear with improbable frequency shortly afterwards. This illusion may explain some examples of the Baader-Meinhof phenomenon, when someone repeatedly notices a newly learned word or phrase shortly after learning it.
Topic: #CognitiveBiases
Source: Wikipedia
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Post Hoc Fallacy
(reading time – 30 sec.)
It is a logical fallacy that states "Since event Y followed event X, event Y must have been caused by event X."
The Brazilian footballer Pelé is said to have blamed a dip in his playing performance on having given a fan a specific playing shirt; after getting the shirt back his performance recovered. The loss of the shirt was given as the reason for his dip, and its return the cause of his recovery. In reality, it was later discovered the shirt returned was not the original shirt.
Topic: #LogicalFallacy
Source: Wikipedia
(reading time – 30 sec.)
It is a logical fallacy that states "Since event Y followed event X, event Y must have been caused by event X."
The Brazilian footballer Pelé is said to have blamed a dip in his playing performance on having given a fan a specific playing shirt; after getting the shirt back his performance recovered. The loss of the shirt was given as the reason for his dip, and its return the cause of his recovery. In reality, it was later discovered the shirt returned was not the original shirt.
Topic: #LogicalFallacy
Source: Wikipedia
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The Ben Franklin effect
(reading time – 50 sec.)
The Ben Franklin effect is a proposed psychological phenomenon: a person who has performed a favor for another is more likely to do another favor for the other than he or she would be if he or she had received a favor from that person.
People reason that they help others because they like them, even if they do not, because their minds struggle to maintain logical consistency between their actions and perceptions.
Topic: #CognitiveBiases
Source: Wikipedia
(reading time – 50 sec.)
The Ben Franklin effect is a proposed psychological phenomenon: a person who has performed a favor for another is more likely to do another favor for the other than he or she would be if he or she had received a favor from that person.
People reason that they help others because they like them, even if they do not, because their minds struggle to maintain logical consistency between their actions and perceptions.
Topic: #CognitiveBiases
Source: Wikipedia
Cheerleader effect
(reading time – 20 sec.)
The cheerleader effect is the cognitive bias which causes people to think individuals are more attractive when they are in a group.
The effect is the result of the way we look at groups and what people, on average, deem an attractive face.
When we look at a group of people, we see them as a group, and our brains average out their facial features.
Topic: #CognitiveBiases
Source: Wikipedia
(reading time – 20 sec.)
The cheerleader effect is the cognitive bias which causes people to think individuals are more attractive when they are in a group.
The effect is the result of the way we look at groups and what people, on average, deem an attractive face.
When we look at a group of people, we see them as a group, and our brains average out their facial features.
Topic: #CognitiveBiases
Source: Wikipedia
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Post Hoc Fallacy
(reading time – 35 sec.)
The Latin phrase “post hoc ergo propter hoc” means, literally, “after this therefore because of this.” The post hoc fallacy is committed when it is assumed that because one thing occurred after another, it must have occurred as a result of it. Mere temporal succession, however, does not entail causal succession. Just because one thing follows another does not mean that it was caused by it.
One example of the post hoc flaw is the evidence often given for the efficacy of prayer. When someone reasons that as they prayed for something and it then happened, it therefore must have happened because they prayed for it, they commit the post hoc fallacy. The correlation between the prayer and the event could result from coincidence, rather than cause, so does not prove that prayer works.
Topic: #LogicalFallacy
Source: logicalfallacies.info
(reading time – 35 sec.)
The Latin phrase “post hoc ergo propter hoc” means, literally, “after this therefore because of this.” The post hoc fallacy is committed when it is assumed that because one thing occurred after another, it must have occurred as a result of it. Mere temporal succession, however, does not entail causal succession. Just because one thing follows another does not mean that it was caused by it.
One example of the post hoc flaw is the evidence often given for the efficacy of prayer. When someone reasons that as they prayed for something and it then happened, it therefore must have happened because they prayed for it, they commit the post hoc fallacy. The correlation between the prayer and the event could result from coincidence, rather than cause, so does not prove that prayer works.
Topic: #LogicalFallacy
Source: logicalfallacies.info
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Fear Of Missing Out
(reading time – 40 sec.)
In psychological terms, FOMO is a cognitive bias defined as the fear experienced by individuals when faced with the thought that they might miss out on a social occasion, a new experience, a profitable investment or a satisfying event.
Social media sites have become a large contributing factor to the FOMO sensation. People develop negative feelings and emotions from social media sites because of envy towards others’ posts and lives. Social media has created an easy-to-access, centrally located spot for people to constantly refresh their feeds and find out what others are doing in that exact moment.
Topic: #CognitiveBiases
Source: Wikipedia
(reading time – 40 sec.)
In psychological terms, FOMO is a cognitive bias defined as the fear experienced by individuals when faced with the thought that they might miss out on a social occasion, a new experience, a profitable investment or a satisfying event.
Social media sites have become a large contributing factor to the FOMO sensation. People develop negative feelings and emotions from social media sites because of envy towards others’ posts and lives. Social media has created an easy-to-access, centrally located spot for people to constantly refresh their feeds and find out what others are doing in that exact moment.
Topic: #CognitiveBiases
Source: Wikipedia
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Omission Bias
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The omission bias is the tendency to judge harmful actions as worse, or less moral than equally harmful omissions (inactions) because actions are more obvious than inactions.
A real-world example is when parents decide not to vaccinate their children because of the potential chance of death—even when the probability the vaccination will cause death is much less likely than death from the disease prevented
Topic: #CognitiveBiases
Source: Wikipedia
(reading time – 20 sec.)
The omission bias is the tendency to judge harmful actions as worse, or less moral than equally harmful omissions (inactions) because actions are more obvious than inactions.
A real-world example is when parents decide not to vaccinate their children because of the potential chance of death—even when the probability the vaccination will cause death is much less likely than death from the disease prevented
Topic: #CognitiveBiases
Source: Wikipedia
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Ambiguity effect
(reading time – 30 sec.)
The ambiguity effect is a cognitive bias where decision making is affected by a lack of information, or "ambiguity". The effect implies that people tend to select options for which the probability of a favorable outcome is known, over an option for which the probability of a favorable outcome is unknown.
When buying a house, many people choose a fixed rate mortgage, where the interest rate is set in stone, over a variable rate mortgage, where the interest rate fluctuates with the market. This is the case even though a variable rate mortgage has statistically been shown to save money.
Topic: #CognitiveBiases
Source: Wikipedia
(reading time – 30 sec.)
The ambiguity effect is a cognitive bias where decision making is affected by a lack of information, or "ambiguity". The effect implies that people tend to select options for which the probability of a favorable outcome is known, over an option for which the probability of a favorable outcome is unknown.
When buying a house, many people choose a fixed rate mortgage, where the interest rate is set in stone, over a variable rate mortgage, where the interest rate fluctuates with the market. This is the case even though a variable rate mortgage has statistically been shown to save money.
Topic: #CognitiveBiases
Source: Wikipedia
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Empathy Gap
(reading time – 30 sec.)
An empathy gap is a cognitive bias in which people underestimate the influences of visceral drives on their own attitudes, preferences, and behaviors.
The most important aspect of this idea is that human understanding is "state-dependent". For example, when one is angry, it is difficult to understand what it is like for one to be calm, and vice versa; when one is blindly in love with someone, it is difficult to understand what it is like for one not to be.
Topic: #CognitiveBiases
Source: Wikipedia
(reading time – 30 sec.)
An empathy gap is a cognitive bias in which people underestimate the influences of visceral drives on their own attitudes, preferences, and behaviors.
The most important aspect of this idea is that human understanding is "state-dependent". For example, when one is angry, it is difficult to understand what it is like for one to be calm, and vice versa; when one is blindly in love with someone, it is difficult to understand what it is like for one not to be.
Topic: #CognitiveBiases
Source: Wikipedia
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Illusion Of Truth Effect
(reading time – 40 sec.)
People are more likely to identify as true statements those they have previously heard (even if they cannot consciously remember having heard them), regardless of the actual validity of the statement. In other words, a person is more likely to believe a familiar statement than an unfamiliar one.
The truth effect plays a significant role in various fields of activity. During election campaigns, false information about a candidate, if repeated in TV commercials, can cause the public to believe it. Similarly, advertising that repeats unfounded claims about a product may boost sales because some viewers may come to think that they heard the claims from an objective source.
Topic: #CognitiveBiases
Source: Wikipedia
(reading time – 40 sec.)
People are more likely to identify as true statements those they have previously heard (even if they cannot consciously remember having heard them), regardless of the actual validity of the statement. In other words, a person is more likely to believe a familiar statement than an unfamiliar one.
The truth effect plays a significant role in various fields of activity. During election campaigns, false information about a candidate, if repeated in TV commercials, can cause the public to believe it. Similarly, advertising that repeats unfounded claims about a product may boost sales because some viewers may come to think that they heard the claims from an objective source.
Topic: #CognitiveBiases
Source: Wikipedia
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Outcome Bias
(reading time – 20 sec.)
The outcome bias is an error made in evaluating the quality of a decision when the outcome of that decision is already known.
One will often judge a past decision by its ultimate outcome instead of based on the quality of the decision at the time it was made, given what was known at that time. This is an error because no decision maker ever knows whether or not a calculated risk will turn out for the best. The actual outcome of the decision will often be determined by chance, with some risks working out and others not. Individuals whose judgments are influenced by outcome bias are seemingly holding decision makers responsible for events beyond their control.
Topic: #CognitiveBiases
Source: Wikipedia
(reading time – 20 sec.)
The outcome bias is an error made in evaluating the quality of a decision when the outcome of that decision is already known.
One will often judge a past decision by its ultimate outcome instead of based on the quality of the decision at the time it was made, given what was known at that time. This is an error because no decision maker ever knows whether or not a calculated risk will turn out for the best. The actual outcome of the decision will often be determined by chance, with some risks working out and others not. Individuals whose judgments are influenced by outcome bias are seemingly holding decision makers responsible for events beyond their control.
Topic: #CognitiveBiases
Source: Wikipedia
The Curse of Knowledge
(reading time – 40 sec.)
The curse of knowledge is a cognitive bias that occurs when an individual, communicating with other individuals, unknowingly assumes that the others have the background to understand.
For example, in a classroom setting, teachers have difficulty teaching novices because they cannot put themselves in the position of the student. A brilliant professor might no longer remember the difficulties that a young student encounters when learning a new subject. This curse of knowledge also explains the danger behind thinking about student learning based on what appears best to faculty members, as opposed to what has been verified with students.
Topic: #CognitiveBiases
Source: Wikipedia
(reading time – 40 sec.)
The curse of knowledge is a cognitive bias that occurs when an individual, communicating with other individuals, unknowingly assumes that the others have the background to understand.
For example, in a classroom setting, teachers have difficulty teaching novices because they cannot put themselves in the position of the student. A brilliant professor might no longer remember the difficulties that a young student encounters when learning a new subject. This curse of knowledge also explains the danger behind thinking about student learning based on what appears best to faculty members, as opposed to what has been verified with students.
Topic: #CognitiveBiases
Source: Wikipedia
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Ben Franklin effect
(reading time – 50 sec.)
The Ben Franklin effect is a proposed psychological phenomenon: a person who has already performed a favor for another is more likely to do another favor for the other than if they had received a favor from that person. An explanation for this is cognitive dissonance. People reason that they help others because they like them, even if they do not, because their minds struggle to maintain logical consistency between their actions and perceptions.
Topic: #CognitiveBiases
Source: Wikipedia
(reading time – 50 sec.)
The Ben Franklin effect is a proposed psychological phenomenon: a person who has already performed a favor for another is more likely to do another favor for the other than if they had received a favor from that person. An explanation for this is cognitive dissonance. People reason that they help others because they like them, even if they do not, because their minds struggle to maintain logical consistency between their actions and perceptions.
Topic: #CognitiveBiases
Source: Wikipedia
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