Week On-Chain, Week 31, 2025

Bitcoin has slipped below $116k, entering a low‑liquidity “air gap”, a zone where few coins have changed hands. Short-Term Holder profitability has hit the bull market mid-line, ETF flows have turned negative, and funding rates are cooling off as the market is trying to find support.

Executive Summary:

- After peaking above $123k in mid‑July, BTC has since entered a phase of indecision, with the price trading below the supply cluster with a base at $116k.

- On July 31, price broke below the lower boundary of this cluster, slipping into a relatively low‑liquidity “air gap”, which persists down to $110k. Opportunistic buying has emerged, but the market is yet to reclaim key resistance levels.

- Short‑term holder profitability has dropped, although around 70% of their supply is still held in profit. Without a quick rebound in demand, confidence amongst these new investors may start to weaken, prompting further sell pressure.

Read the full report here.

~120k BTC were acquired during the rebound from $112k to $114k - evidence of opportunistic buying. Yet supply within the $110k–$116k range remains sparse, meaning stronger accumulation is needed to form lasting support: https://glassno.de/4mzDbRB

Bitcoin is struggling to reclaim the cost basis of short-term top buyers (~$116.9k). Remaining below this level raises the probability of extended consolidation or further correction toward the lower $110k region.

Spent volume by Bitcoin short-term holders in profit has cooled to 45%, below the neutral threshold. This reflects a balanced market, with modest profit-taking and no clear directional conviction among short-term investors.

Shrimp-to-Fish cohorts (wallets with <100 BTC) continue to absorb supply faster than it’s created. Monthly balance growth sits above +17K BTC - outpacing the +13.85K Bitcoin issuance - with Shrimps alone adding nearly 10K Bitcoin, underscoring persistent retail-led accumulation.

After peaking on 16 July (Spot: $10.22B, Futures: $60.17B), both BTC spot and futures volumes have trended lower. However, current levels (7 Aug) at $6.61B and $41.05B remain well above the early-July lows of $4.85B and $33.82B, respectively.

XRP futures activity surged, with 24h volume up +208% to $12.4B - overtaking Solana’s $9.6B. Open interest climbed to $5.9B (+15%), while a positive funding rate suggests heavy long positioning - which could raise liquidation risk if price turns lower.

Since Jun 21, short-term holders - investors holding BTC <155 days - have added over 220K BTC to their balance (+9.9%). While notable, it’s modest compared to Jan–Mar, when supply surged by 540K BTC (+25%) in one of the sharpest rotations this cycle.

At 29.79%, Bitcoin’s 3-month realized volatility is at its lowest since Sep 2023. This cycle’s volatility profile stands out - staying mostly below 50%, compared to frequent 80–100% readings in the last two bull markets.

A useful gauge of short-term demand trends and potential reversals: when the cost basis of 1w–1m holders exceeds that of 1m–3m holders, it signals newer buyers paying a premium - a bullish sign. The gap remains wide, suggesting short-term demand for Bitcoin is still strong.

With ETH shooting up above $4.6K, its price came just 3.9% below its previous all-time high. As Ethereum strength builds, capital rotates further along the risk curve.

BTC dominance fell from 65% to 59% over two months, underscoring the growing appeal of altcoins amid broader risk-on behavior.

ETH futures open interest printed a new ATH around $35.5B as spot pushed to ~$4.59k. Leverage has rebuilt across venues, setting the stage for larger moves as positioning concentrates.

Shorts are feeling it: ~$66M in short liquidations on Aug 12 with price near $4.62k. This is the second largest shorts liquidation event this year-to-date.

In options, ETH OI has climbed to a YTD high ~$16.1B, alongside spot around $4.6k. Elevated open interest signals strong demand for optionality around the breakout.

Premiums confirm the tilt: call premium paid ~$82M (Aug 8) and still ~$31.5M (Aug 11), consistently outpacing puts. Traders are paying up for upside convexity as ETH presses higher.