On-Chain Support Levels

Using the UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD), the nearest support zone lies between $104k–$108k, where over 1.15M BTC was accumulated over the past year. This dense supply region may serve as a strong support if the market continues to correct.

Chart: https://glassno.de/4mWiKOT

ETH Holders in Profit

With Ethereum hitting a new ATH, the MVRV ratio has climbed to 2.15. This means, on average, investors hold over ~2.15x unrealized gains. This level mirrors prior market structures seen in March 2024 and December 2020, both of which preceded periods of elevated volatility and profit-taking.

Chart here: https://glassno.de/3VghiuG

Crucial Support

Bitcoin is now trading just above $110.8k, the average cost basis of 1m-3m old investors who accumulated during the May–July rally to new ATHs. Historically, failure to hold above this level has often led to multi-month market weakness and potential deeper corrections.

Chart here: https://glassno.de/45RDosE

Last week, institutional investors broke the multi-week run of inflows into US spot ETH ETFs with -105K ETH in net outflows. However, this week opened on a positive note, with +16.9K ETH added to positions yesterday.

Bitcoin has now spent 273 days with a super-majority of supply held in profit (above the +1σ band) - the 2nd longest stretch on record, behind only the 2015–2018 cycle at 335 days. A signal of how extended the current cycle has been relative to history.

Bitcoin’s long-term holders have already realized more profit this cycle than in all but one prior cycle (2016–17), highlighting elevated sell-side pressure. Taken alongside other signals, this suggests the market has entered a late phase of the cycle.

Network Activity Slowing

The monthly average of change-adjusted transfer volume has declined from $26.7B to $23.2B (~13%), tracking the pullback in price. A break below the yearly average of $21.6B would confirm weakening speculative activity and signal a broader contraction in on-chain demand.

Chart here: https://glassno.de/45SYtTk

The Week On-Chain 34, 2025
Bitcoin trades near $111k, testing key support at $107k–$108.9k. A bounce to $113.6k may face selling from stressed holders, while deeper losses could target $93k–$95k. Losses remain shallow, with spot demand neutral and perpetuals leaning bearish but fragile.

Executive Summary
- Bitcoin has pulled back to $111k, with support anchored by the $93k–$110k cost basis cluster. A break below $107k–$108.9k could open downside toward $93k–$95k.
- Short-term holders remain under stress, making $113.6k a likely resistance as they sell into any bounce.
- Unrealized and realized losses remain shallow, far from past bear extremes, suggesting limited capitulation so far.
- Spot demand has neutralized, while perpetual futures lean bearish, with funding rates signalling fragile neutrality.

Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter.

Bitcoin is holding above a dense supply cluster between $93k and $110k. This accumulation zone has steadily matured since Dec 2024 and could form a floor - unless sustained sell pressure drives a capitulation event.

Bitcoin trades below the $113.6k and $115.6k cost basis of the 1M and 3M cohorts. With short-term holders under water, rallies may face resistance as these investors seek to exit at breakeven.

The Relative Unrealized Loss of BTC investors sits at just 0.5% - far from the >30% levels typical of bear market extremes. This reinforces that most holders remain in profit, despite growing short-term stress.

Spot market bias has reset. Bitcoin’s CVD across major venues has reverted to neutral, contrasting with strong April buyer dominance. This suggests waning conviction among spot participants near $111k.

MVRV standard deviation bands help anchor expectations for SOL. Since the March 2024 top, the +0.5σ band has acted as resistance, where profit-taking outweighed demand. Price now sits near the mean ($210). If defended, the +0.5σ band at ~$275 becomes the next test.

Though SOL recently saw an uptick in realized cap growth - a sign of new inflows - and Ethereum plateaued, ETH continues to lead. Over the past month, ETH’s realized cap grew +9.4% vs +4.9% for SOL and +2.6% for BTC.

ETH option skews rotated quickly over the past week.

• Aug 22: upside bias (calls richer, 1w -7%).
• Aug 25: defensive shift (puts richer, 1w +4%).
• Aug 28: neutral (~0% across tenors).

Traders rapidly repriced ETH risk from upside to downside and back to balance.

Studying total daily USDT transfer volume on Ethereum, shows a clear pattern since the cycle low: each major BTC rally triggered a >250% surge in USDT activity, followed by a cooldown phase as BTC slipped into downward consolidation.

Chart here: https://glassno.de/41tDxkA

No altcoin sector outperformed ETH over the past month, though DeFi and Layer 2 came close. Notably, most altcoin sectors ended the period in decline.