The Week On-Chain 35, 2025
Bitcoin is consolidating in the $104k–$116k air gap after significant absorption by investors. Futures and ETF flows show cooling demand. Strength above $116k could revive the uptrend, while a breakdown risks a move toward $93k–$95k.

Executive Summary
- Bitcoin trades near $112k, consolidating $104k–$116k. URPD shows dip-buying in $108k–$116k, though further contraction isn’t ruled out.
- Breaking below the 0.95-quantile cost basis ended a 3.5-month euphoric phase, placing price back in the $104k–$114k consolidation band.
- Short-term holder profitability fell to 42% before rebounding to 60%, leaving the market neutral but fragile unless price reclaims $114k–$116k.
- Off-chain sentiment cools: futures funding is neutral but vulnerable, and ETF inflows have slowed, Bitcoin flows were spot-driven, Ethereum mixed with arbitrage.

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Bitcoin’s futures funding rates are cooling, now around $366k/hour - near the neutral threshold of $300k/hour for this cycle. A break below this level would signal fading demand and deepen the off-chain divergence from prior bullish phases.

Over 50% of ETH ETF inflows have been mirrored by rising CME open interest, indicating that TradFi activity isn't purely directional. The data suggests a mix of outright exposure and arbitrage strategies as ETH trades below local highs.

Bitcoin’s 25 Delta Skew (1 Month) has been climbing to new highs, reflecting strong put demand. This isn’t purely a sign of bearishness; it often signals institutional hedging activity. With the rise of Bitcoin ETFs and DATs, institutions are stepping in, gaining exposure while using puts to manage downside risk.

Chart link: https://glassno.de/4n4eDR2

Consolidation Range

Bitcoin is currently trading at $111.1k, stuck between the 0.85 and 0.94 quantile cost basis band ($104.1k–$114.1k). This range historically marks post-euphoria consolidation. A break below signals further exhaustion, while a reclaim above $114k could mark renewed demand strength.

Chart here: glassno.de/3I3snwq

Rangebound

Any supply below $111.1k continues to be absorbed by latent demand as we consolidate. A break above $114.1k could see us test the cluster at $118k.

Chart link: https://glassno.de/3HUCL9M

Bitcoin entities holding 100–1k BTC (“sharks”) have sharply ramped up accumulation. Over the past 7 days, their holdings grew by ~65k BTC. The pace of accumulation has grown as well, with a 30D net increase of 93k BTC. This group now holds a record 3.65M BTC.

The Week On-Chain 36, 2025
Bitcoin is range-bound at $110k–$116k as profit-taking and slower ETF inflows curb momentum. Derivatives dominate, with $114k key for upside and $108k the risk level below.

Executive Summary
- Bitcoin holds in the $110k–$116k “air gap” after retreating from August highs. The $107k bounce drew dip-buyers, but short-term holder selling capped gains.
- Profit-taking by 3–6 month holders and losses from recent buyers weigh on momentum. Regaining $114k is key to restoring confidence and inflows.
- On-chain liquidity is steady but easing, while ETF flows have slowed to ~±500 BTC/day, tempering the TradFi demand that drove March and December rallies.
- With spot demand softer, derivatives lead. Futures remain balanced, and rising options open interest signals a more risk-managed structure.
- The market is at a crossroads: above $114k could unlock upside, while below $108k risks testing support near $93k.

Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter.

Bitcoin’s cost basis distribution highlights dense support around $110k–$114k, where a large share of supply was acquired. The next major supply zone sits near $117k, which may provide resistance if price tests this level.

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