Since our Aug 25 post, distribution has softened but not reversed. Most $BTC cohorts remain below the 0.5 threshold, indicating sell-side pressure persists. No group is showing strong accumulation (>0.8). The market remains in a broadly neutral-to-distribution regime.

US Spot #Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of ~5.9k BTC on Sept 10th, the largest daily inflow since mid-July.

This pushed weekly net flows positive, reflecting renewed ETF demand as BTC consolidates above the $114k level.

Chart Link: glassno.de/3IhGs9B

Throughout this bull market, BTC short-term holder realized price has effectively served as a support baseline.
As long as the price respects this level, the trend remains constructive. Losing this support has coincided with phases of contraction or pullbacks.

Chart Link: https://glassno.de/41UGivu

The SOPR ratio of <3-month holders—tracking the profit margin of active spenders—bounced off neutral (SOPR = 1) as BTC found support at $107k.

Short-term investors' on-chain behaviour confirms the market is anticipating a positive outcome from this week’s FOMC meeting.

This bounce suggests renewed confidence among recent buyers, with many returning to profitability just days ahead of the Fed decision. Historically, such patterns often precede sharp reactions to macro catalysts.

glassno.de/4po5uo2

This renewed confidence largely stems from price reclaiming the cost basis of all sub-3-month holders, which ranges between $111.8k and $114.2k.

For this momentum to hold, BTC must remain above this range post-FOMC. Failure to do so could signal a classic “sell the news” market structure.


glassno.de/4mud4Lu

#Bitcoin is ~6.8% below its ATH, heading into the most anticipated FOMC meeting of the cycle.
Options traders are rapidly buying options to hedge or position for a volatility spike, reflecting the market’s uncertainty and expectation of a major move.

https://glassno.de/46G8Vz9

Over the past 48 hours, centralized exchanges have seen three distinct waves of inflows exceeding $25M per block.
The latest wave aligned with BTC’s pullback from $117.2k, suggesting a partial spot market sell-off.

📈https://glassno.de/46NPO5l

US Spot #Bitcoin ETFs continue to see net inflows, with recent activity pushing firmly into positive territory. This reinforces institutional demand as a key pillar of market support, even as price slowly climbs near cycle highs.

https://glassno.de/47Qk41y

#Bitcoin's CBD heatmap shows the supply clustered around $117k, presenting a key resistance zone. Clearing this level could open the way to thinner supply above, while failure risks prolonging consolidation or a contraction.

📈https://glassno.de/4ppLIsx

The Week On-Chain 37, 2025
Bitcoin is above $115.2K with 95% of supply in profit post-FOMC. Futures saw short squeezes, while options OI hit a record 500K BTC ahead of Sept 26 expiry. Holding $115.2K is key; losing it risks a drop toward $105.5K.


Executive Summary
- Bitcoin gained momentum into the Sept 17 FOMC, with derivatives shifting from risk-off to balanced. Spot showed mild sell pressure, while perpetuals absorbed via short squeezes.
- Perpetual OI peaked at 395K BTC before easing to ~380K as volatility flushed leverage.
- Options OI hit a record 500K BTC ahead of the Sept 26 expiry, with $110K max pain likely to influence spot.
- Volatility repricing lifted the 1M IV–RV spread, while dealer hedging flows support rallies and cushion dips.
- On-chain, BTC trades above $115.2K, cost basis for 95% of supply. Holding is key; losing risks a move toward $105.5K.


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