The Week On-Chain 37, 2025
Bitcoin is above $115.2K with 95% of supply in profit post-FOMC. Futures saw short squeezes, while options OI hit a record 500K BTC ahead of Sept 26 expiry. Holding $115.2K is key; losing it risks a drop toward $105.5K.


Executive Summary
- Bitcoin gained momentum into the Sept 17 FOMC, with derivatives shifting from risk-off to balanced. Spot showed mild sell pressure, while perpetuals absorbed via short squeezes.
- Perpetual OI peaked at 395K BTC before easing to ~380K as volatility flushed leverage.
- Options OI hit a record 500K BTC ahead of the Sept 26 expiry, with $110K max pain likely to influence spot.
- Volatility repricing lifted the 1M IV–RV spread, while dealer hedging flows support rallies and cushion dips.
- On-chain, BTC trades above $115.2K, cost basis for 95% of supply. Holding is key; losing risks a move toward $105.5K.


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The short-term holder cost basis is often treated as the key battle line between bulls & bears, and currently sits at $111.4k 🔵.
Sustained trading below this level could signal a shift toward a mid- to long-term bearish market structure.

https://glassno.de/46NvTEt

#Bitcoin futures open interest fell from $44.8B to $42.8B as price slid to $113k.

The flush in leverage reflects reduced speculative exposure, often a healthy reset that can stabilize derivatives markets and lower the risk of forced liquidations.

📈 https://glassno.de/3K9e6Pw

This chart measures the cumulative profit realized (in BTC) by long-term holders from the moment a new cycle ATH is set until the final peak.
So far, LTHs have realized 3.4M BTC—a historically large volume compared to prior cycles.

📈 https://glassno.de/4mr1VuD

#Bitcoin US spot ETF flows have cooled after strong September inflows, with the latest sessions tipping into mild outflows. While overall accumulation remains intact, the slowdown suggests a pause in institutional demand.

🔗https://glassno.de/46R0YHr

#Bitcoin has slipped below the 0.95 Cost Basis Quantile, a key risk band that often marks profit-taking zones.

Reclaiming it would signal renewed strength, but failure to do so risks a drift toward lower supports around $105k–$90k.

🔗https://glassno.de/3IE26F0

#Bitcoin Accumulation Trend Score has softened, with muted conviction from large cohorts despite elevated prices.

Lighter accumulation signals a more cautious bid, leaving the market vulnerable to supply overhang unless demand re-intensifies.
🔗https://glassno.de/4gGE7S9

The Week On-Chain 38, 2025
#Bitcoin shows exhaustion post-FOMC as LTHs realized 3.4M BTC in profit and ETF inflows slowed. With spot and futures weak, $111k STH cost basis is key support or risk downside.

Executive Summary
- Bitcoin Correction: Post-FOMC, price action reflects “buy the rumour, sell the news” with fading momentum.
- On-chain: Drawdown mild at 8%, but $678B inflows and 3.4M BTC in LTH profits show major capital rotation.
- ETFs vs LTHs: ETF inflows slowed as LTH distribution accelerated, leaving flows fragile.
- Spot & Futures: Spot volumes spiked, futures deleveraged, and liquidation clusters highlight liquidity risk.
- Options: Skew surged and puts bid, showing defensive positioning as macro signals exhaustion.

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