The Week On-Chain 44, 2025
Bitcoin stabilizes near $100K after losing key cost-basis levels, with fading demand and long-term holder selling. With ETF outflows and cautious options positioning, markets remain oversold.

Executive Summary
- Bitcoin fell below the Short-Term Holders’ Cost Basis (~$112.5K), confirming fading demand and ending its prior bullish phase.
- Around 71% of supply remains in profit, consistent with mid-cycle corrections.
- Since July, LTH supply has declined by 300K BTC, marking ongoing distribution even as price trends lower.
- U.S. Spot ETFs have recorded steady outflows, while spot CVDs on major exchanges show persistent sell pressure.
- The Perpetual Market Premium dropped drastically indicating traders are stepping back from leveraged longs.
- Elevated put demand and higher premiums at the $100K strike show traders are still hedging, not buying the dip.



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#BTC Options Weekly

Bitcoin is retesting the 100K level after short term holders have capitulated. Options data reveal how traders feel about fear, vol and positioning, a clear read on sentiment and the driver of price action.

Check our latest BTC Options Weekly

Bitcoin rebounded from the 75th percentile cost basis (~$100K) and is now consolidating near $106.2K.
The next key level is the 85th percentile cost basis (~$108.5K); a zone that has historically served as resistance during recovery moves.

📉https://glassno.de/4ojfrSN

#Bitcoin futures open interest remains muted following October’s leverage flush, showing little sign of new speculative build-up. Derivatives activity has slowed materially, mirroring the broader backdrop of subdued market sentiment.

🔗https://glassno.de/47Ksfup

Since early October, U.S. Bitcoin ETFs have shown signs of weakness, with a few positive days, but mostly net outflows reaching up to -$700M per day.
This trend points to a broader de-risking phase among ETF investors.

📉https://glassno.de/4oN6SQ5

The majority of #Bitcoin supply sits in long-term holder’s hands, while Ethereum shows greater turnover and productive use on-chain. In our joint research with Keyrock, we assess how BTC and ETH supply dynamics shape their respective store-of-value profiles. Grounded in on-chain data, our analysis cuts through the narratives, showing Bitcoin’s dominant savings-asset profile and Ethereum’s hybrid position as both reserve capital and working collateral within DeFI.

Read the report for full insights: https://glassno.de/47F7FNu

The Week On-Chain 45, 2025
#Bitcoin consolidates near $103k, with support at $100K and resistance at $106K. ETF outflows, low leverage, and strong put demand highlight a cautious market still searching for conviction.

Executive Summary
- Bitcoin remains in a mild bearish phase, trading between $97K and $111.9K, with resistance near $116K marked by top-buyers’ supply cluster.
- Seller exhaustion and renewed accumulation near $100K provide short-term support but lack strong follow-through demand.
- A dense supply cluster between $106K–$118K continues to cap rallies as investors exit near breakeven.
- ETF flows have turned modestly negative, reflecting fading institutional demand and a cautious risk appetite.
- Futures markets show muted funding rates and low open interest, signalling subdued speculative activity across both Bitcoin and altcoins.
- Options traders maintain a defensive stance, with put protection concentrated around $100K, while the 25-delta skew remains a key gauge for sentiment shifts.
- Overall, the market is consolidating within a defined range, awaiting stronger inflows or macro catalysts to break out of the current equilibrium.



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At $96K, nearly 99% of investors who accumulated Bitcoin within the past 155 days are now holding at a loss

📉https://glassno.de/47GyFfn