The Week On-Chain 45, 2025
#Bitcoin consolidates near $103k, with support at $100K and resistance at $106K. ETF outflows, low leverage, and strong put demand highlight a cautious market still searching for conviction.

Executive Summary
- Bitcoin remains in a mild bearish phase, trading between $97K and $111.9K, with resistance near $116K marked by top-buyers’ supply cluster.
- Seller exhaustion and renewed accumulation near $100K provide short-term support but lack strong follow-through demand.
- A dense supply cluster between $106K–$118K continues to cap rallies as investors exit near breakeven.
- ETF flows have turned modestly negative, reflecting fading institutional demand and a cautious risk appetite.
- Futures markets show muted funding rates and low open interest, signalling subdued speculative activity across both Bitcoin and altcoins.
- Options traders maintain a defensive stance, with put protection concentrated around $100K, while the 25-delta skew remains a key gauge for sentiment shifts.
- Overall, the market is consolidating within a defined range, awaiting stronger inflows or macro catalysts to break out of the current equilibrium.



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At $96K, nearly 99% of investors who accumulated Bitcoin within the past 155 days are now holding at a loss

📉https://glassno.de/47GyFfn

The share of XRP supply in profit has fallen to 58.5%, the lowest since Nov 2024, when price was $0.53.
Today, despite trading ~4× higher ($2.15), 41.5% of supply (~26.5B XRP) sits in loss — a clear sign of a top-heavy and structurally fragile market dominated by late buyers.
📉 http://glassno.de/48pwOef

#BTC has broken below the 0.75 cost-basis quantile, a level that has historically marked bear-market territory. Across cycles, reclaiming and holding above it has been key to restoring bullish structure. Bulls will want to see this level regained.
📉https://glassno.de/4o6648m

The Week On-Chain 46, 2025
BTC has broken below key cost-basis levels amid weak spot demand and steady ETF outflows. Derivatives remain muted, with declining OI, cycle-low funding, and options activity skewed toward downside protection.

Executive Summary
- Bitcoin has broken below the STH cost basis and the −1 STD band, placing recent buyers under stress; the $95K–$97K region now acts as key resistance, and a reclaim would mark an early step toward restoring market structure.
- Spot demand remains weak, with US spot ETF flows deeply negative and no incremental bid emerging from TradFi allocators.
- Speculative leverage continues to unwind, reflected in declining futures open interest and funding rates falling to cycle lows across the top 500 assets.
- Options markets have sharply repriced risk, with implied volatility rising across maturities and skew remaining deeply negative as traders pay significant premiums for downside protection.
- Put-dominant flow and demand at key strikes (e.g., 90K) reinforce a defensive positioning regime, with traders hedging more actively rather than adding upside exposure.
- DVOL has returned to monthly highs, tying together the broad repricing of risk across volatility, skew, and flow metrics and signalling expectations for elevated near-term volatility.



Read more in The Week On-Chain

The shift from a confirmed bull to a true bear market often comes after multiple major on-chain price models fail:

🔴STH Cost Basis: $109.8K
🟡Active Investors Mean: $88.6K
🟢True Market Mean: $82K
🔵Realized Price: $56.1K

We are now testing Active Investors Mean. A breakdown below both Active Investors and the True Market Mean would mark the first major confirmation of a deeper bear trend since May 2022.

📊 http://glassno.de/3XDy2xe

The $2.0 level remains a major psychological zone for Ripple holders.
Since early 2025, each time XRP has retested $2, investors have realized $0.5B–$1.2B per week in losses.

This underscores how heavily this level influences spending behavior.

📉http://glassno.de/4obHgvn