$BTC sits beneath every short-term holder's realized price but remains well above deeper realized levels, leaving the market in no-man’s-land.
Regaining these bands would mark the first meaningful sign of structural recovery.
📉https://glassno.de/4rlNr2Y

Breaking above the top-buyers’ supply clusters is a key prerequisite for regaining momentum toward a new ATH.
The major immediate clusters sit at $93k–$96K & $100k–$108K, where typically some degree of resistance from recent buyers is expected.

📊 glassno.de/4p2DTbn

XRP’s futures OI has fallen from 1.7B XRP in early October to 0.7B XRP (~59% flush-out).
Paired with the funding rate dropping from ~0.01% to 0.001% (7D-SMA), 10/10 marked a structural pause in XRP speculators’ appetite to bet aggressively on upside.

📉 http://glassno.de/4pwZ0Cw

🔄 Update:

With spot price now at $90.9K, several key levels have shifted:

🔴 STH Cost Basis: $104.2K
--- Spot Price: $90.9K ---
🟡 Active Investors Mean: $88.1k
🟢True Market Mean: $81.7K
🔵 Realized Price: $56.4K

📊http://glassno.de/3XDy2xe

A new cost-basis cluster formed after Bitcoin’s drop into the low-$80K region, showing fresh accumulation at these levels. This zone is now one of the densest on the heatmap and could act as a strong support area, likely to be defended by recent buyers.
📉https://glassno.de/48mkMlC

The Glassnode x Fasanara Q4 2025 Digital Assets Report is live!
🔗 Download your copy at https://glassno.de/4pIbsQ1.

Drawing on Glassnode’s data and analytics and Fasanara’s trading perspective, we outline how market structure has shifted across spot, ETFs, futures, stablecoins, and tokenized assets.

From Bitcoin’s spot-driven expansion to the rise of tokenization and decentralized perps, the market is reshaping around new structural anchors. For professionals navigating a fast-changing market, the report offers a consolidated view of the digital asset ecosystem.

📄 Read more on Glassnode Insights → https://glassno.de/3MzXJwk

Tune in to our webinar with Keyrock at 4pm CET today, where Glassnode Analyst Chris Beamish and Keyrock Digital Asset Researcher Ben Harvey will unpack the data and market forces behind BTC’s and ETH’s diverging usage patterns.
🔗 Event link: https://glassno.de/4pPHt98

The Week On-Chain 48, 2025
Bitcoin stabilizes above the True Market Mean, but market structure now mirrors Q1 2022 with over 25% of supply underwater. Demand is weakening across ETFs, spot, and futures, while options show compressed volatility & cautious positioning.

Executive Summary
- Bitcoin stabilizes above the True Market Mean, but the broader structure now resembles Q1 2022 with >25% of supply underwater.
- Capital momentum remains positive, supporting consolidation, though far below mid-2025 peaks.
- 0.75–0.85 quantile band ($96.1K–$106K) is the key zone for restoring structure; failure increases downside risk.
- ETF flows turn negative, and spot CVD rolls over, signalling weakening demand.
- Futures open interest declines and funding resets neutral, reflecting a risk-off stance.
- Options market sees IV compression, softer skew, and flows shifting from puts to cautious call selling.
- Options appear underpriced, with realised volatility exceeding implied, putting pressure on short-gamma traders.
- Overall, the market remains fragile, dependent on holding key cost-basis zones unless macro shocks break the balance.

Read more in The Week On-Chain

Since mid-November, BTC has fallen below the 0.75 quantile, putting >25% of supply underwater.
This leaves the market in a fragile balance between top-buyer capitulation risk and seller-exhaustion bottom formation.
At $93K, price remains highly sensitive to macro shocks until the market can reclaim the 0.75 quantile ($95.8K) and then the 0.85 quantile (~$106.2K).

📉glassno.de/3KEPxKM

📢 Interpolated IV Metrics

Skew is widely used to read crypto options, but it captures only one slice of a much richer volatility surface. Interpolated IV provides a structured view of how the market prices risk across specific deltas and maturities.
We’ve expanded our options coverage with standardized IV curves for BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, BNB & PAXG, mapped at:

• 5D–50D deltas
• 1w, 1m, 3m, 6m maturities
• Calls & Puts

Why does this matter?

Raw options data is uneven as strikes are irregular, expiries are thin, and liquidity shifts throughout the day. Interpolation cleans the surface, fills gaps, and provides consistent values at every timestamp.

This allows you to:

🔹Pinpoint where the market is paying for downside protection
🔹Track shifts in call-side demand and rotations into higher-beta assets
🔹Compare crash risk across assets
🔹Monitor short-term stress vs longer-term repricing through the term structure
🔹Use clean, stable IV series directly in systematic strategies

📰 glassno.de/48Gquiw

The Week On-Chain 49, 2025
#Bitcoin is stuck in a fragile range as losses climb, LTH selling grows, and demand stays weak. ETFs, liquidity, and futures remain muted while options price short-term volatility ahead of FOMC.

Executive Summary
- Bitcoin remains in a structurally fragile range, pressured by rising unrealized losses, elevated realized loss realization, and significant profit-taking by long-term holders. Despite this, patient demand has kept price anchored above the True Market Mean.
- The market’s inability to reclaim key thresholds, particularly the 0.75 quantile and the STH Cost Basis, reflects persistent sell pressure from both recent top buyers and seasoned holders. A near-term retest of these levels is possible if seller exhaustion emerges.
- Off-chain indicators remain weak. ETF flows are negative, spot liquidity is thin, and futures positioning shows little speculative conviction, leaving price more sensitive to macro catalysts.
- Options markets reveal defensive positioning, with traders bidding short-dated IV, accumulating both wings, and showing consistent demand for downside protection. The surface signals short-term caution but more balanced sentiment across longer maturities.
- With the FOMC meeting as the final major catalyst of the year, implied volatility is expected to decay into late December. Market direction hinges on whether liquidity improves and sellers relent, or whether the current time-driven bearish pressure persists.

Read more in The Week On-Chain