The Week On-Chain 3, 2026
#Bitcoin is consolidating in a low-volume regime, with easing spot pressure, light leverage, and volatility priced as short-lived rather than structural.

Executive Summary
- On-chain structure remains fragile, with price hovering around key cost-basis levels and limited confirmation of durable long-term holder conviction.

- Supply overhang persists, as recent buyers continue to face overhead resistance, constraining upside follow-through and keeping rallies vulnerable to distribution.

- Spot flows have turned more constructive, with sell-side pressure easing across major venues, though accumulation remains selective rather than aggressive.

- Corporate treasury activity is sporadic, characterised by isolated, event-driven inflows rather than coordinated accumulation, leaving corporates a marginal demand source.

- Derivatives participation remains thin, with futures volume compressed and leverage deployment subdued, reinforcing a low-engagement market regime.

- Options markets are pricing risk only at the front end, with short-dated implied volatility reacting while medium- and long-dated tenors remain anchored.

- Hedging demand briefly intensified, as reflected by a spike in the put/call volume ratio, but has since normalised, signalling tactical rather than structural risk aversion.

- Dealer gamma positioning has skewed lower, reducing mechanical support for price stability and reinforcing sensitivity to liquidity shocks.




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The recent attempt to move above STH-cost basis ($98.4K) was capped by sell-side pressure from 3–6 month holders, whose average cost basis sits near $112.6K.
This cohort ramped up spending into the move, realizing elevated losses and weighing on upside momentum.

📰http://glassno.de/3ZosaJ7

Ethereum network fees just hit their lowest level since May 2017.

📉http://glassno.de/4agE1PG

Any meaningful transition back toward a strong market rally should be reflected in liquidity-sensitive indicators such as the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio (90D-SMA).
A sustained rise above ~5 has historically signalled a renewal of liquidity inflows into the market.

📉http://glassno.de/4rjg683

The Week On-Chain 4, 2026
BTC is consolidating with muted volumes, as spot bid rebuilds slowly while options markets lean increasingly defensive.

Executive Summary
- Bitcoin remains pinned near key on-chain cost basis levels, where support is being tested, and conviction is required to prevent further structural weakness.

- Short-Term Holder conditions remain fragile, with any failure to reclaim key breakeven bands keeping recent buyers vulnerable to renewed sell pressure.

- Broader holder behaviour still leans defensive, suggesting this is a consolidation regime driven more by absorption than expansion.

- Liquidity remains the deciding variable, as price stability has persisted despite reduced participation, but breakout continuation still needs demand follow-through.

- Spot ETF flows are stabilising, with the 30D average drifting back toward neutral after sustained outflows, reducing mechanical sell pressure.

- Spot CVD bias is improving across venues, led by Binance, indicating marginal buy pressure is returning, though Coinbase remains comparatively steady.

- Perpetual futures leverage remains muted, with funding largely neutral and speculative positioning still cautious and easily shaken out.

- Options markets are rotating toward downside protection, with bearish skew, elevated short-dated implied volatility, and dealer gamma slipping below zero, increasing downside sensitivity.


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Looking at the cumulative Spent Volume by Long-Term Holders, LTHs have been spending >12K BTC per day on average over the past 30 days — equivalent to ~370K BTC per month.
This highlights the scale of gross distribution activity, beyond what net metrics alone capture.

📉http://glassno.de/3Ob5dqo

The 3D-SMA of Net Realized Profit & Loss is now at –$317M/day, a regime last observed in December 2022.
Loss realization has regained control, liquidity is fading, and patience is being tested.

📉http://glassno.de/4tjaTyH