In this week's Glassnode Clips, we focus on Bitcoin's Daily Price Change:

- Workbench is used for detailed visualization and analysis of Bitcoin's daily price changes.
- Important daily price movements in Bitcoin are highlighted using if-then statements and standard deviation bands to mark major positive and negative changes.
- The recent 5.7% sell-off is recognized as Bitcoin's third largest in 2023, with the analysis drawing on past significant market events to provide context on its volatility.

Discover more in the latest Glassnode Clips below 👇
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ojv9M9kAmOE

Our analysts have pinpointed three essential metrics tailored to trend traders:

The convergence of these three metrics serves as a precise indicator of critical market inflection points. Trend traders can leverage these insights for strategic decisions, whether to close long positions or initiate short positions.

Realized Cap Net Position Change

- Spotlights periods of significant capital inflows, signaling opportune moments for entering or exiting positions.
- Strategically aligned with identifying the euphoric phase of a bull market.

Binary CDD

- Highlights the timing when experienced investors divest their holdings, often following an all-time high (ATH).

Realized HODL Ratio (RHODL Ratio)

- Analyzes the wealth distribution between seasoned and novice traders.
- Reflects the transfer of wealth from informed investors to retail traders.

For personalized demonstrations or in-depth discussions, visit our institutional page: https://glassnode.com/institutions#contact

The Week On-chain 51, 2023
In this last edition for the year, we will do a whirlwind tour of what changed this year, on-chain. We will explore how the Bitcoin, Ethereum, Derivative, and Stablecoin landscapes have evolved in 2023, and how this sets up the space for an exciting road ahead.

Executive Summary
- 2023 has been an incredible year for digital assets, with Bitcoin up over 172%, correcting less than 20%, and net capital inflows into BTC, ETH and Stablecoins.
- The market has broken above several important technical and on-chain pricing models this year, with October being a major pivot point for institutional capital flows.
- Long-Term Holders currently hold a near all-time-high of the Bitcoin supply, and a super-majority of coins are now held in profit.
- Major market structure shifts are taking place, such as Tether re-asserting dominance amongst stablecoins, CME futures flipping Binance, and significant frowth of Options markets.

Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter and watch our latest video analysis report.

In this week's Glassnode Clips, we focus on NVT Price:

- The NVT price model is used to estimate Bitcoin's fair value, highlighting its economic relevance by comparing market cap to transaction volume.
- In its analysis, the model concentrates on economically meaningful transactions, filtering out internal exchange movements and wallet transfers to enhance the accuracy of its insights.
- Recent observations from the NVT price model reveal a mismatch between Bitcoin's price rise and transaction volume, indicating rapid price increases, with a noticeable uptick in transaction activity starting from October, coinciding with an influx of new capital into the Bitcoin market.

Discover more in the latest Glassnode Clips below 👇
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DBgdfVaM7g0

In this week's Glassnode Clips, we focus on Short-Term Holder Profit Cycles:

- Short-Term Holder Profit Cycles Analysis highlights Bitcoin's short-term holders' influence on market dynamics, focusing on those who spend coins acquired within the last five months.
- The model tracks short-term holder coins moving from loss to profit, emphasizing periods that impact future price movements and measuring the duration of these profits.
- The analysis of consolidation periods and market inflection points shows how sustained consolidation forms a basis for price rallies, with quick changes in short-term holders' profit/loss status indicating key market shifts.

Discover more in the latest Glassnode Clips below 👇
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MlUOMUEl0jo

In this week's Glassnode Clips, we focus on Bull Market Corrections:

- The analysis uses Workbench to isolate and examine significant bull market periods, color-coding each epoch for clarity.
- It evaluates the depth of corrections within bull markets, assessing drawdowns from local highs to gauge the intensity of market dips.
- The 2023 market cycle demonstrates resilience, with relatively shallow corrections and rare drawdowns beyond 20%, indicating a strong and steady upward trend for Bitcoin.

Discover more in the latest Glassnode Clips below 👇
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s3T8L6Yaeq0

Introducing the Q1 2024 Guide To Crypto Markets by Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode.

The 44-page Guide dives into Bitcoin, Ethereum, Stablecoins, Derivatives and portfolio allocation.

Here are some key takeaways from the report:

- Correlations have changed: Explore how cryptocurrency, particularly in 2023, returned to showing low correlations with traditional assets, reinforcing its role as a unique risk factor in diversified portfolios.

- Enhanced portfolio performance: Review data from March 2018 to October 2023 showing how adding the Coinbase Core Index to a traditional 60/40 portfolio improved both absolute and risk-adjusted returns.

- Stablecoins on the rise: Understand how various stablecoins contributed to the overall growth in circulating supply seen in Q4.

Download the guide here: https://get.glassnode.com/q1-2024-guide-to-crypto-markets/

Yesterday marked the launch of the Q1 2024 Guide to Crypto Markets by Coinbase Institutional & Glassnode, and today we highlight a key piece of analysis from the report:

BTC Monthly Realized Volatility Bands

- Annual Perspective: Bollinger Bands applied over a one-year lookback period to capture a broad view of market trends.

- Volatility Insights: Pinpoints when volatility is notably high or low—identifying periods of significant price expansion/contraction or unusual calm.

These insights are crucial for investors to spot both turbulent periods and times of quiet before potential market movements.

For more insights, download our guide: https://get.glassnode.com/q1-2024-guide-to-crypto-markets/

Also, check out the accompanying dashboard for an interactive experience of the guide's insights: https://studio.glassnode.com/dashboards/8ce2df90-f7fa-4d66-595e-4d81584825ea

The SEC has greenlit 11 Spot Bitcoin ETFs, marking a significant shift for the Bitcoin market. Let's examine the on-chain impact:

- Hash Rate hit a new peak over 600 EH/s, demonstrating network strength.

- Daily on-chain transactions exceed $5.7B, with exchange flows at $4.6B.

- Futures Open Interest is at $17.6B, with crypto collateral down to 22%.

- Bitcoin's Realized Cap nears an all-time high at $438B, suggesting increased demand.

- Holder Realized Prices indicate new market entrants:

🟠 $22.4K
🔴 $37.5K
🔵 $20.9K

Despite the rising market, HODLing persists as the prevailing strategy. Yet, a rise in Short-Term Holder supply hints at emerging distribution to new investors.

For full analysis, visit: https://x.com/glassnode/status/1745458120338604490?s=20

In this week's Glassnode Clips, we focus on Market Year-to-Date Price Performance in 2023:

- Bitcoin experienced exceptional growth in 2023, with its market cap increasing by 170%, significantly outperforming traditional assets, and its dominance was particularly notable since October.
- Ethereum has lagged behind, evidenced by its ratio to Bitcoin reaching multi-year lows, which indicates that its growth hasn't kept pace with Bitcoin's.
- The wider altcoin sector, excluding Ethereum and stablecoins, has shown a steady performance, which parallels that of Ethereum, in stark contrast to Bitcoin's rapid growth.

Discover more in the latest Glassnode Clips below 👇
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ALH1NGilj5I&t=1s

Last week, in collaboration with Coinbase Institutional, we released the Q1 2024 Guide To Crypto Markets.

Thousands of downloads & acclaim for the 44-page guide on Bitcoin, Ethereum, Stablecoins, Derivatives, and portfolio strategies.

Here’s a quick recap of what’s making waves:

- Changing Correlations in Crypto: Highlights 2023 as the year digital assets, particularly Bitcoin, showed low correlations with traditional assets, enhancing portfolio diversity.

- Portfolio Analysis (Mar 2018 - Oct 2023): Adding the Coinbase Core Index to a 60/40 portfolio notably improved both absolute and risk-adjusted returns.

Stablecoin Growth: Explores the rise of various stablecoins and their impact on Q4's circulating supply, offering insight into their increasing importance.

You can view our brand new dashboard here: https://studio.glassnode.com/dashboards/8ce2df90-f7fa-4d66-595e-4d81584825ea

Download it now: https://get.glassnode.com/q1-2024-guide-to-crypto-markets/

The Week On-chain 03 , 2024
2024 has opened with a roller-coaster ride for Bitcoin, as ten new spot ETFs begin trading in US markets. The event was historic and chaotic, with BTC prices setting both new multi-year highs, and YTD lows. Bitcoin has welcomed traditional finance into it's world.

Executive Summary
- The successful SEC approval of ten new spot BTC ETF products set the scene for a characteristically chaotic week for Bitcoin investors.
- BTC prices set new multi-year highs, followed by YTD lows, as the market sold off -18% over the weekend. This was driven by both derivatives leverage and spot profit taking.
- Several indicators reached levels where past cycles found meaningful resistance, and was highlighted by ~75K BTC being spent by Long-Term Holders taking profits.

Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter and watch our latest video analysis report.

Attention institutional investors: On January 24th we will be hosting a live Webinar discussing the metrics that matter the most in Q1.

Join Glassnode's Lead Analyst, James Check, and David Duong, Head of Research at Coinbase Institutional, to learn:

- If digital assets correlate with traditional assets
- Where we are in the current cycle
- How adding crypto can affect portfolio performance

Seats are limited so sign up today: https://zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_32Egmw1MRzegOHK6ScgQaA#/registration

Whilst the fourth halving is pre-determined to occur at block-height 840,000, the exact date is unknown due to the natural variability and probabilistic nature of mining blocks.

Our best estimate given the current average block interval is that the halving is now 100-days away.

Whilst the fourth halving is pre-determined to occur at block-height 840,000, the exact date is unknown due to the natural variability and probabilistic nature of mining blocks.

Our best estimate given the current average block interval is that the halving is now 100-days away.

If you'd like to learn more about how the halving may affect the supply and demand dynamics of Bitcoin and, ultimately, its price action in the coming months, this comprehensive analysis Glassnode produced back in November is your go-to resource: https://insights.glassnode.com/the-week-onchain-week-46-2023/

In our first Chart of the Week of 2024, we explore the Value Days Destroyed metric.

The introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs, which turned out to be a "sell the news" event, prompts us to question if this marks the initial hint of a reversal in the positive trend we've witnessed over the past year. Value Days Destroyed, an indicator focused on Bitcoin's smart money, might just hold the answers. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n9T5zD09XTI

In this week's Glassnode Clips, we focus on ETFs:

- GBTC remains a key player in the ETF market, holding about 617,000 BTC. It has recently reduced its fee, shifting from a premium to a 50% discount, which impacts investor decisions.
- The ETFs saw a $7.6 billion trading volume in two days, with GBTC alone contributing $4.16 billion. Investors are weighing the trade-off between GBTC's high liquidity and its fees against other ETFs with lower fees.
- The market now features around 10 different ETF products, each with its own characteristics. This diversity presents a complex scenario for analysts and investors, requiring careful observation of the market's evolution.

Discover more in the latest Glassnode Clips below 👇
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wzwcm_mg7zU&t=1s

The Shrimp Cohort [<1 BTC] continues to aggressively accumulate Bitcoin
at a rate of +23.7K BTC / Month, bringing the total Shrimp supply to a value of 1.38M BTC.

For further information regarding Entity Accumulation and Distribution, visit our Dashboard: https://glassno.de/3g3mt0i

Or read our deep dive report exploring the supply distribution of Bitcoin, breaking down the supply by wallet size, and exploring how coins disperse over time: https://insights.glassnode.com/bitcoin-supply-distribution-revisited/