The Week On-chain 04 , 2024
The approval of a suite of new Bitcoin ETFs appears to have become a classic sell-the-news event, triggering BTC prices to drop by -19%. This makes for an ideal opportunity to assess how investor profitability has changed over recent weeks.

Executive Summary
- Supply in Profit/Loss as an ideal toolkit to monitor profitability.
- Breakdowns of supply into Long and Short-Term Holder cohorts.
- Identifying divergences using simple statistical bands and levels.

Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter and watch our latest video analysis report.

Last night, David Duong, CFA, Head of Research at Coinbase Institutional, and our Lead Analyst, James Check, hosted an in-depth webinar which highlighted some key insights from our Q1 Guide to Crypto Markets.

A big thank you to the many institutional investors who attended the live webinar and asked amazing questions. If you missed it, you can access the recording here: https://get.glassnode.com/2024-crypto-guide-coinbase/

Get in touch here: https://glassnode.com/institutions

In our latest Chart of the Week, we discover the significance of the Short-Term Holder Supply in Loss metric.

This cyclical indicator aids traders employing momentum strategies in the Bitcoin market. Gain insights into its role in distinguishing between market corrections and potential peaks, offering valuable information for strategic decision-making. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mjcde_26JSA

In this week's Glassnode Clips, we focus on Long and Short-Term Holder Supply:

- Market trends and investor behaviors are significantly impacted by changes in the balance between long-term and short-term Bitcoin holders.
- The distribution of long-term versus short-term holders serves as a market sentiment indicator, where an increase in short-term holders often aligns with market peaks, signaling new investor influx and potential volatility.
- The current market state, marked by a modest increase in short-term holder supply, suggests it isn't in a robust bull run, and a declining market could indicate insufficient demand, reflecting weaker market strength.

Discover more in the latest Glassnode Clips below 👇
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8zECAQxOv1A&t=2s

Assessing the severity of Bitcoin Bull Market Corrections by cycles, an increased level of resilience can noted across our current cycle.

Currently, the largest drawdown has reached a value of only -20.1%, paling in comparsion to historical precedence.

For further information on Bitcoin Price Performance, please visit our Dashboard: https://glassno.de/40Xt7GQ

The Week On-Chain 05, 2024
The Bitcoin market continues to show resilience, recovering from the initial sell-the-news drawdown following ETF approvals. In particular, the market is working through the significant supply overhead created by investors rebalancing capital out of the GBTC product since its conversion.

Executive Summary
- Bitcoin price performance since the 2022 lows shows striking similarity to prior cycles, albeit recovering somewhat slower, but in a more resilient manner.
- Despite a modest uptick in older coin spending following ETF approvals, the majority of long-term Bitcoin investors remain unwilling to part with their coins at current prices.
- Network activity remains low in terms of entities, but monetary volume transferred on-chain, and specifically to exchanges remains robust, and resembles prior bull market cycles.

Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter and watch our latest video analysis report.

The Bitcoin Realized Cap remains just -5.4% shy of its previous ATH of $467B, and is currently experiencing strong capital inflows.

That said, the duration for this recovery to accelerate has been markedly slower than prior cycles, arguably due to the significant supply overhang from challenging trades like the GBTC arbitrage.

🥇 2012-13 Cycle 0.22% daily
🥉 2015-16 Cycle: 0.09% daily
🥈 2019-20 Cycle: 0.17% daily
🐢 2023-24 Cycle: 0.05% daily

Discover more in the latest Week On-Chain below 👇
glassno.de/3SjCBtJ

Are Bitcoin sellers taking profits? Are long-term holders starting to sell? We've created an interactive guide covering 3 essential on-chain metrics that will help you uncover the market sentiment.

1. SOPR: Detect market consolidation or reversal points, understanding when sellers are taking profits. Interactive view: https://glassno.de/3UqImZ3

2. MVRV: Identify market conditions as overbought or oversold, steering clear of false signals. Engage with the metric here: https://glassno.de/3HG1UBg

3. HODL Waves: Anticipate price movements by analyzing Bitcoin holding patterns for shifts in supply and investor confidence. Learn more about HODL Waves: https://glassno.de/491RmIO

Read the full guide here:https://glassno.de/3SIvSuC

For traders and investors aiming to leverage these insights, we offer API access to SOPR, MVRV, and HODL Waves metrics.

Start with our free trial to elevate your trading strategy. Explore the guide and secure your API access here: https://glassno.de/491FpCW

In this week's Glassnode Clips, we analyse the GBTC Balance:

- GBTC's market impact is notable, with its transition from a closed-end fund to an ETF enabling share redemptions and significantly influencing Bitcoin's market dynamics, especially during the shift to a discount phase.
- The conversion of GBTC to an ETF led to significant Bitcoin outflows, including around 161,000 Bitcoin, largely due to redemptions and ETF fees.
- The ongoing market dynamics from GBTC's transition are still unfolding, with substantial outflows suggesting a shift of coins to other ETFs and a relatively modest market correction observed so far.

Discover more in the latest Glassnode Clips below 👇
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KS-1FvqLH0Y&t=2s

Bitcoin Transfer Volumes remain extremely robust with around $7.7B/day in economic volume processed.

However, an elevated presence of large size entities can be observed, with the average Volume per Entity soaring to value of $25.8k/transaction.

Discover more in the latest Week On-Chain below 👇
https://glassno.de/3SjCBtJ

The Week On-Chain 06, 2024
On-chain data provides analysts and investors with a remarkable degree of transparency into the performance, adoption, and investor positioning within digital assets. In this piece, we highlighted several approaches and frameworks for assessing market momentum across various data categories.

Executive Summary:
- Tools available to monitor positive and negative market momentum.
- Indicators of inflection points and shifts in direction.
- Confluence across several on-chain categories for robustness.

Read more in The Week On-Chain newsletter and watch our latest video analysis report.

Assessing Risk in a Bitcoin Bull
On-chain data provides both investors and analysts with a plethora of new tools to diagnose and assess the state of the chain from a multitude of viewpoints. In this article, we produce a new framework for assessing the degree of market risk across various data categories.

Executive Summary
-In this article, we introduce a new Risk Assessment framework which utilizes a suite of core on-chain instruments covering both Short-Term and Long-Term risk cycles.
- Equipped with this new framework, we aim to provide investors and analysts alike with a robust model for assessing drawdown risk from a data-driven standpoint.
- In conclusion, we compile all metrics considered into a heatmap to assess the confluence of risk across a variety of data categories.

Discover more in our latest research article.

After the challenging recovery since the FTX collapse, this indicator has advanced to 2.06, entering the High Risk 🟧 regime.

As noted, these levels are typically seen during the early stages of bull markets, as long-term investors return to a relatively meaningful level of profitability.

Read the Report here: https://glassno.de/49jl8IQ

In this week's Glassnode Clips, we analyse SOPR Momentum:

- SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) serves as a quick indicator, providing immediate insights into market changes by tracking profits or losses from spent coins, contrasting with slower-moving unrealized profit and loss metrics.
- SOA (Spent Output Age Bands) offers early warnings of shifts in profitability and market sentiment, relating closely to SOPR and comparing short-term to long-term averages for insight.
- Together, SOPR and SOA reveal market momentum by showing how profit-taking rates and demand balance each other, influencing trends and market stability.

Discover more in the latest Glassnode Clips below 👇
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VmuvpTzcTFo&t=36s

In this week's Chart of the Week, we examine the Short-Term Holder MVRV Ratio, an indicator for short-term Bitcoin market trends.

How does this metric inform us about potential local tops or bottoms? With historical data showing that peaks in MVRV often align with market adjustments, what do the current MVRV Ratio levels suggest for the near-term market direction? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Eja2CRtwhw8