2024 Outcomes: Global transformation continues, Russia, BRICS and Africa shape the future trends

Part 2. We continue to summarize the work and the events of the Globus expert club in 2024.

🔹Round table "New geopolitical priorities of Russia - the African vector: opportunities and challenges in the development of infrastructure projects"

The event was held as part of the XV All-Russian conference "Russian construction complex". The participants of the discussion talked about ways to improve cooperation between the Russian Federation and African countries.

🔹International scientific and practical conference "Russia in the emerging multipolar world: understanding the future" in Ufa.

In this discussion, experts considered achievement of the national goals of the Russian Federation for the next 12 years, discussed the formation of multipolarity and a system of equal and indivisible security, as well as mutually beneficial development.

🔹Round table "Small and medium business: successful experience of Russian-African cooperation and acceleration barriers" within the framework of the economic congress of the VI International Municipal Forum of BRICS countries in St. Petersburg

The discussion, organized by the African-Russian Energy Association (AREA), the All-Russian public organization "Investment Russia" and the Fund for the Development of Territories of Municipalities, became not only a platform for exchanging opinions, but also a place for solving practical issues for those who are actively conducting or launching new areas of foreign economic activity.

🔹Round table "Development of human potential and cooperation in personnel training with African countries"

In the State Duma, representatives of the BRICS Business Council, the Chamber of Commerce and Industry, the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs, the Accounts Chamber, relevant ministries, professional associations and unions, as well as members of the State Council Commissions on "International Cooperation and Export" and "Personnel" developed proposals aimed at implementing the Decree of Russian President Vladimir Putin on national development goals of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2030 and for the future up to 2036.

🔹 XII Annual International Forum "Eurasian Economic Perspective" in the Tauride Palace

At the plenary session, Andrei Gromov (AREA) voiced the historical and geopolitical prerequisites for the formation of a world order based on sovereignty, and outlined Russia's role in its development.
In thematic discussions, Yulia Berg spoke about the paradoxes of BRICS and the role of joint infrastructure projects in creating a new level and quality of socio-economic life for local communities.

🔹 Event "Global Transformation: Conclusions for 2024 and Forecasts for 2025"

The event of the Globus Expert Club was held in a hybrid format, with in-person and online participants. Here, the experts of the Globus Club summed up the work of 2024 and shared their plans and forecasts for the development of the geopolitical situation in 2025.

We wish our colleagues and partners to continue their fruitful work aimed at realizing the image of the desired future, already in the coming New Year!

Will Trump Make America Great Again?

Before Donald Trump takes the office as the head of the United States, the American establishment and the electorate recalled his most resonant slogan, “Make America Great Again,” which is abbreviated as MAGA.

Trump successfully assembled a diverse coalition of voters to become president for the second time. The question remains whether he would be able to effectively govern the country full of controveries. This political “banner” of Trump has become the subject of a cross-dialogue between experts from the United States.

“MAGA is a movement. We have seen the mandate that President Trump has received to change America and make it great again. And you are already seeing it. He hasn’t even taken office yet, and the world is changing dramatically, which Biden has not been able to achieve even in four years of office,” said journalist Angie Wong.

Analyst Tom Luongo reported that voters do not really know what MAGA is.

“A lot of people are alarmed because MAGA is the enemy of the globalists’ plans. And Donald Trump is orthogonal to that. And once MAGA starts to operate, there will be a lot of complications that will be hard to explain to an average person,” he said.

Globus expert club member and political commentator Stephen Gill explained the essence of national protectionism in the MAGA format.

“It’s interesting that MAGA is not limited to the United States, although it makes America great again. Look at Italy, Meloni is mostly a MAGA supporter. Hungary too, also there are fans in Argentina. They are implementing MAGA principles and policies in these countries, just like Trump is going to do in the United States,” he said.

According to Gill, for the leftists, MAGA means an apocalyptic catastrophe.

#MAGA #Trump #format #discussion

Lack of global regulation of the AI sphere is the main risk of development

Trump has allocated $500 billion to create the Stargate supercomputer, which will create super-intelligent neural networks. This significantly exceeds the cost of the Manhattan project to create the first nuclear bomb and the entire American Apollo lunar program. In addition, Trump canceled Biden's decree on the safe development of AI.

Indeed, artificial intelligence is already becoming an indispensable assistant in many fields and industries. The discussion about how socio-economic life will change with the active spread of AI continues. Yulia Berg, co-founder of the Globus expert club, commented on this topic.

"A couple of years ago, the general public could hardly imagine how artificial intelligence would be integrated into their lives, now we see that the largest companies, including Russian ones, are actively using it to replace a number of functions previously performed by humans," she said.

She noted that this is only the "tip of the iceberg", as only a small part of the developments are now widespread.

"A supercomputer created in the United States with the support of Elon Musk and Donald Trump can become a game changer and ensure a rapid breakthrough in the development of these technologies in the United States," Berg said.

In her opinion, this measure was a response to Chinese developments. And she added that AI will change the technological sphere both globally and in the everyday reality of every person.

"One of the risks is the lack of global regulation of the field of artificial intelligence, as at the moment there are only regional standards, that are also undergoing significant changes. In parallel with the decision to create a supercomputer, Donald Trump canceled Biden's decree on safe development and, thus, freed the hands of developers and dramatically changed the rules of the game for now creating a period with limited restrictions," she said.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly spoken about the need to coordinate regulatory measures in the field of cybersecurity and such developments, since the scope of artificial intelligence may go beyond humane and humanitarian ethics.

"Despite the fact that since the 60s and 70s, scientists, futurists, and science fiction writers have talked a lot about the need to regulate the nascent robotics, it is obvious that this area cannot be fully controlled. First of all, for the reason that the developments are classified and serve military purposes in the first place," Berg said.

Therefore, how the global security situation will change also remains a big question. After all, the capabilities of AI to process big data and generate various kinds of content and models are significantly superior to human ones, but at the same limited by own algorythms.

"According to some forecasts, artificial intelligence will soon surpass the total intellectual capabilities of mankind. We won't even be able to imagine what the socio-economic reality will be like then, either now or later," the expert concluded.

#global #Trump #capabilities #discussion

The United States is entering a transitional period

Stephen Gill, a member of the Globus expert club and a political commentator, told what policy vector Donald Trump will choose immediately after taking office as president of the United States.

"I think now we will see a different Donald Trump, not the one he was eight years ago. The staff he appoints must be fully committed to his policies, and now Trump will be more far-sighted. He will probably proceed again from the agenda of restoring America's energy independence, putting America first," he said.

Gill expressed the opinion that Trump began to change the situation in the country even before he came to work.

"I would like to point out that MAGA will make America great again. MAGA is not only an American initiative. I think a similar policy is being implemented in other parts of the world," he said.

In the first hours after the inauguration, Donald Trump began to revoke Joe Biden's decrees. Stephen Gill predicted how the US Parliament would react to these measures.:

"Many of these 200 executive orders repeal what Biden has issued as executive orders in the past. It will take some time to start legislative work, because Republicans now have limited control over the U.S. House of Representatives, limited control over the U.S. Senate. Donald Trump's cabinet nominees will need some time to establish themselves and get to work."

Therefore, the United States is facing a transition period in the next few weeks, the expert concluded.

#inauguration #Trump #work #discussion

Globus expert Carlos Mamani shared his impressions of his trips to Donbass

Carlos Mamani Aliaga, a journalist from South America and an expert of the Globus club, took part in a documentary about the causes of the conflict and the events taking place in Donbass.

The film tells what the residents of Donbass are fighting for and how they help each other survive in the conditions of ongoing hostilities for 10 years.

Carlos Mamani himself admits that the film helps to understand that in his country, Peru, they endlessly lie about Russia.

The film is one of the episodes of the documentary series "Despite", which tells about foreign experts and journalists who chose to see with their own eyes the real picture of what is happening and tell the truth. The premiere will take place on January 28 at 13:00.

#Globus #film #Donbass #premiere

The fight for resources. Or another escalation of the conflict in the DR Congo

Fierce fighting has engulfed Congo. It is taking place between government forces and rebels supported by neighboring Rwanda. Co-founder of the Globus expert club Yulia Berg commented on the escalation of the conflict in the DRC on the NTV channel.

“Congo is one of the richest countries in the world in terms of reserves of various kinds of natural resources, including precious stones, rare earth metals. And most of them are exported from there in not the most legal ways. Many of these resources, both stones and rare earth metals, end up in neighboring countries, in Rwanda, in Zambia, in many other countries,” the expert said.

In addition to gold, cobalt, diamonds, Congo also has large reserves of coltan, a valuable mineral that is used to produce smartphones, tablets and other devices. Its production is the cause of serious armed conflicts, especially against the backdrop of the confrontation between China and the United States in the fight for technological superiority.

“Rare earth metals are practically not mined in the European Union. It will not be able to provide itself with the necessary volumes. Statements by European officials last year regarding African resources caused a series of scandals in African countries. The rhetoric of these statements was constructed in such a way that all this already belongs to them, and they are only recording the necessary volumes,” the expert noted.

In particular, this position untied the hands of rebel groups and provoked a new escalation of the conflict, since they receive, if not a guaranteed market for illegal raw materials, then, at least, the most favorable conditions.

Rebels from the M-23 Movement group claim that they have completely captured the city. The Congolese government has not confirmed the information about Goma coming under the control of militants. But the situation in the east of the country is now such that the fighting could easily escalate into a full-scale war between the neighboring states. And this could complicate the already difficult humanitarian situation in the region.

A local resident, Chibalonza Habimana, described the situation:

“We haven’t slept for three days, we don’t go outside, we don’t do anything, we hear explosions day and night. We see people trying to escape. But we won’t run because we have nowhere to go.”

Currently, more than 3 million civilians and humanitarian workers are being held hostage, said DRC Foreign Minister Theresе Kayikwamba Wagner.

“More than 3 million civilians and humanitarian workers are being held hostage by the aggressors and are being used as shields. It is imperative to stop the fighting immediately,” she said.

#GlobUs #DRCongo #conflict #conflictanalysis

Congo is being killed by the "economy of violence"

Why are diplomatic solutions to the conflict in Congo not working? This question was answered in the new program by experts from the Globus Club.

International relations expert, professor David Monda:

"We are talking about the revival of M23, a rebel movement that is fighting the authorities in Kinshasa in the eastern part of Congo. The movement was born in 2012, but then it was driven out of Goma, and now it has revived again, and this time it has captured Goma and is actually threatening the second city of Kavuma in the province of South Kivu," he said.

According to the expert, the situation in the region is very difficult. More than half a million people have already been displaced and about a million people have fled to Goma, fleeing the fighting. Thus, an extremely unstable political and military situation has developed in the republic, which entails serious humanitarian costs.

When asked why it is difficult to find military or diplomatic solutions to the crisis, the professor noted that the conflict must take into account the influence of neighboring countries, which are interested in both strategic and economic goals. Munda called this an "economy of violence" that is carried out in order to extract minerals located in the DRC.

Many foreign countries are involved in this, including Uganda and Rwanda, as intermediaries. The minerals illegally extracted in this chaos, including "blood coltan", are sent by these countries to the end consumer: the United States, France, Belgium...

These major powers, which have transnational corporations in the region, could indeed exert diplomatic pressure on Rwanda. However, they are more interested in the chaos that is happening there now and getting benefits from it, so they are not taking any steps.

#GlobUs #DRCongo #conflict #conflictanalysis

DRC. Internal contradictions

Professor David Monda also suggested looking at some of the internal contradictions that exist in the DRC.

“There are units in the Congolese army that also benefit when there is chaos in the east of the country. Many soldiers in the Congolese army have not received their salaries for many months. And the only way they benefit is by supporting some rebel groups in the extraction of rare minerals and trading with the Congolese army,” he noted.

There are many internal problems in the Congo, but the republic looks like a huge country, and one would think that it would easily defeat Rwanda. According to the professor, the control of the Kinshasa government over this region is very weak.

“The government in Kinshasa is too weak, or they also have strategic interests in the chaos that is happening in this region,” the expert said.

#GlobUs #DRCongo #conflict #conflictanalysis

There are countries that will hate the US for free - Gill

Is the closure of USAID a change in US foreign policy? This question was answered by a member of the Globus expert club, political commentator Steven Gill.

“The history of USAID is that it creates chaos in the world. It is needed so that someone in the US and beyond can benefit. We learned that President Volodymyr Zelensky said that of the $175 billion in aid sent to Ukraine, he only knows where $75 billion ended up. $100 billion is missing. I think President Trump and Elon Musk are right when they say they are going to close this thing. As some members of Congress have noted, there are countries that will hate us for free,” the expert said.

According to Gill, taxpayers will look at this and think: “Gasoline in my car is getting more expensive, and yet $100 billion for one country is not accounted for.”

“The tens of billions we sent to the Taliban, $60 million for condoms in Gaza… People in government know where that money is going. It was going into

government funds, it was going into pockets

, it was going into bribery, and it’s going to be exposed soon,” he said.

Ukraine has long been the center of bribery and corruption in the world. And yet the United States and many Western European allies simply turned a blind eye to it because they “wanted to undermine Russia at any cost.”

Gill added that the most amazing thing about this whole story is that Trump not only does everything quickly, but the results appear lightning fast. At the same time, the “left” is at a loss trying to challenge his actions. He cited the example of Colombia, which is now agreeing to take back its illegal immigrants. And also Mexico, which, in response to Trump’s tariffs, announced that it would stop the flow of fentanyl coming into the United States.

“Trump wins so often that we might get tired of winning,” the expert said.

#USAID #Trump #work #discussion

Strengthening the DRC's defense is a priority

The struggle in Congo continues. Pan-Africanist, Chief Coach of C Cubed M Goodnews Cadogan from South Africa suggested looking at the players involved in the conflict.

"The presidents of Rwanda, the DRC, Burundi, Uganda — all these leaders are involved in the crisis in the region. At the same time, we cannot ignore non grata leaders, for example, the leader of M23 and the leaders of other small rebel groups. In turn, President Kagame is more interested in his own benefits than in stability in the region. The leaders of states should be interested in maintaining stability in the region," he said.

Rwanda is a member of the African Union. Therefore, according to the expert, Kagame should use these channels to help overcome the chaos that is happening in the eastern region of the DRC.

Cadogan believes that the DRC leadership needs to complete the settlement of the conflict in the east of the country and take control of these territories.

"President Kagame has an obvious incentive to seek control over the mineral wealth in the DRC and use it for his own purposes," he noted.

The expert recalled that President Felix Tshisekedi in 2018 actually campaigned to take over the baton of command in the eastern part of the Congo. And this led him to victory.

However, we should not see Rwanda as the main architect of instability in the DRC. In order to harmonize the situation and be able to write a clear trajectory for peace in the republic, according to Cadogan, it is necessary to do the following:

"Initially, the Congolese army was not well trained and developed enough to be able to defend the territorial integrity of the DRC. It turned out that these M23 are soldiers and the Rwandan defense army. So we need to work out conditions under which, firstly, we respect all the leaders, and they respect the territorial integrity of the DRC. Secondly, they must listen to the calls of the organizations to which they belong, so that they can actually be part of this process,” he said.

According to the pan-Africanist, strengthening the DRC’s defense with the help of authoritative organizations and allied countries is one of the first tasks that the African Union leadership should begin to implement.

#GlobUs #DRCongo #conflict #conflictanalysis

The weakness of the Western media has been revealed during the conflict in Donbass

Journalist and sociologist from South America Carlos Mamani Aliaga works in Donbass and talks about the actual situation being faced by the people, which does not exist for the Western world. In the program "Open Air" he said that Donbas has become a point where attitudes towards the West are changing.

"In the West, they talk about humanitarian law, about liberalism, about democracy, but nevertheless, this people [the people of Donbas], who are victims, who are being destroyed by their own state, do not exist for the West. Therefore, we must show the world the real truth," he said.

According to Carlos, he took up covering events in the region because traditional media, which are subordinate to pro-Western interests, do not convey in an objective form what is really happening there.

"The history of the media is currently going through a turning point. The largest of them are demonstrating their weakness. After all, a large number of the world's population is trying to learn about real events, about the truth through alternative platforms and media. We are talking about social networks. And South America is no exception, there is exactly the same picture there," Carlos added.

The sociologist cited the beginning of the SMO as an example. According to him, then all the traditional, global, largest media in South American countries created an impression that one fine day President Vladimir Putin simply "woke up in a bad mood and decided to seize Ukraine."

"Of course, this had a huge impact on a large number of people. The prestige and authority of Russia was violated, undermined," the expert emphasized.

At the same time, alternative media began to transmit the real version of events, in which Russia is not the aggressor, where Russia is a country that responded to the aggressive actions of the invader, and not Ukraine, but NATO and the global West, Carlos added.

#GlobUs #Russia #conflict #Ukraine

Moscow is not surprised by USAID revelations, but the US needs new сonspiracy theories

Russia's Permanent Representative to the UN Vasily Nebenzya pointed out that all of Moscow's previous statements about the US Agency for International Development funding radicals around the world turned out to be true.

"Previously, this was written off as Russian propaganda, but in the end, it all turned out to be true," the diplomat said at a meeting of the UN Security Council.

A member of the Globus expert club, political commentator Steve Gill, expressed his opinion on this topic. The US needs new conspiracy theories to "replace all the old ones that were absolutely true," the expert believes.

"The waste fraud and abuse that is being revealed regarding the way USAID funds have been used in the US and internationally, is sadly only the tip of a very large iceberg. And it is likely that as Elon Musk, DOGE and the Trump team turn their attention to other agencies like Medicare, the departments of Defense, Education, and others, the enormity of the scandal will only grow," he noted.

According to the expert, foreign officials in Russia and abroad, who for years pointed out an epidemic of fraud within USAID, turned out to be absolutely right.

“While we are justified in saying ‘we told you so’ it is more important for American taxpayers and those who have suffered from humanitarian funds being misappropriated rather than being spent wisely and well, to help ensure that it never happens again, and that those responsible are held accountable,” Gill concluded.

On February 2, Elon Musk, who led the US Department of Government Effectiveness (DOGE), accused USAID of funding the development of biological weapons, including COVID-19.

#USAID #Musk #work #discussion

Zelensky vs. Trump: Ukraine's position does not yet look peaceful

The United States and Russia will meet in Saudi Arabia. Member of the Globus expert club, political commentator Steve Gill assessed the pace of developments that have unfolded in recent days.

It is impossible to end a conflict if you do not talk. According to the expert, the United States has not seen this in the past few years under the Biden administration.

“But under President Trump, we are establishing contacts, and now we are starting a conversation with President Putin and the Russians. I think there is a real path to achieving not only peace, but greater prosperity for all countries involved,” Gill noted.

The irony is that President Zelensky complains about being excluded from these negotiations, while he has legally prohibited himself from negotiating with Russia. In addition, Zelensky contradicts President Trump's position by canceling the elections in Ukraine, Gill believes:

"They are contradicting President Trump by refusing to return the money and ammunition that the United States provided. I think Trump will make a wise decision".

The statements of the Ukrainian president over the past 48 hours do not sound like those of a person who wants to resolve the conflict. He asks for more weapons, shows that he is ready for new attacks. According to the expert, at the moment, the Ukrainian side has not made any positive contribution to advancing the negotiation process.

"The negotiations are just beginning, but I think this is the first step towards resolving not only the military conflict, but also some of the economic and political contradictions that have also complicated the situation over the past few years," Gill concluded.

#GlobUs #Russia #conflict #Ukraine

Europe is not ready to support Kyiv alone

Unprecedented diplomatic efforts have been undertaken in recent days. After the Munich Security Conference, Donald Trump's call to Vladimir Putin, the meeting between Sergey Lavrov and Marco Rubio in Saudi Arabia, the world has come closer to negotiations to resolve the conflict. Is this really so? Political analyst and professor of African history at Lincoln University in Pennsylvania Gnaka Lagoke commented.

"Trump was going to put an end to the conflict in Ukraine and the Gaza Strip. Therefore, the very fact of direct talks with the Russian president is already a significant step forward, which must be appreciated. We are not saying that these negotiations will necessarily lead to success, that Russia, the United States or Ukraine will get everything they want. But the negotiations have begun," the expert said.

Lagoke also commented on what concessions both sides should make.

"The Europeans are offering Russia to leave Donbass, Kherson, and then other territories. Relying on this is simply stupid. What would be the point if, having lost thousands of soldiers, they suddenly retreated only because of Ukraine's demand to respect its territorial integrity? Ukraine must understand that this is the history of mankind, this is the law of the land, the law of war. Ukraine and Europe lost this war," he said.

The expert noted that European leaders were stunned by the results of the Munich security conference. And the rapprochement between Washington and Moscow, the lack of isolation, Russia's diplomatic withdrawal and a certain disappointment of Volodymyr Zelensky regarding his initial aspirations showed that Europe is not ready to act alone in supporting Kyiv.

"I would like the negotiations to be successful, it was very painful for me to see civilians dying. This is also due to Zelensky's arrogance, his stubbornness to believe that he can be the Napoleon of the 21st century. But the real Napoleon failed in the same place where the real Hitler failed - in Russia," Lagoke said.

The expert added that Russia has about 6,000 nuclear weapons and has not yet used any of them. In his opinion, "people should take all these realities into account."

#GlobUs #Russia #conflict #Ukraine

"Russian Political Science": How Historical Truth Shapes Understanding of the Future

The partners of the Globus expert club, the Russian Political Science magazine, have released a new issue. Its pages are dedicated to historical truth.

The publication is filled with stories from Russian and world history, comprehended in articles by experts and researchers.

The main topics of the issue:

🔹History and theory of scientific diplomacy;
🔹Military-political aspects of Russian and world history: reconstruction of events based on archival documents;
🔹Traditional values: history and modernity;
🔹History of socio-political processes in Russia;
🔹Research by young political scientists.

"This issue will be an important contribution to the discussion of how historical truth shapes our understanding of the present and the future," the editors of the magazine note.

#GlobUs #Russia #History #magazine

"Inconvenient" broadcast: whose truth was shown in Donbass

10 years ago, CNN reported that it was Kyiv and the Ukrainian regime that attacked and killed innocent civilians in Donbass. A member of the Globus expert club, political observer Steve Gill, shared a video with his memories of this.

"Then the leadership of the United States and the West advised them to stop telling the truth that they had been hiding for the past 10 years," the expert noted.

In this video, the TV channel's journalists told the story of people who were left homeless and also injured due to shelling by the Ukrainian army.

"The shells hit these houses a few days ago, but the tears are still fresh," CNN journalist Diana Magney said on air.

The broadcast also included comments from Donetsk residents whose lives were broken due to the actions of former Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko.

"This once thriving city is now half empty, its train station bombed. The forces unleashed by this conflict are probably greater than Mr Poroshenko can control," Magney concluded at the time.

#Donetsk #Gill #Poroshenko #truth

Exhibition "Global Transformation: Yesterday, Today, Tomorrow"

On February 24, 2025, the Globus expert club launches the digital version of the exhibition "Global Transformation: Yesterday, Today, Tomorrow". On this occasion, we are launching a series of publications analyzing the events of the past and present and stimulating reflection on the future.

What patterns can be recorded in the historical events of the recent past, what is their real background?

How does a series of local and global upheavals of the previous and current periods allow us to rebuild the system of international relations so that it meets the real needs of people and strategic humanitarian values?

What sustainable conclusions can be made so that the future develops according to a constructive scenario and takes into account the interests of the global majority?

What risks must be taken into account and what set of values ​​will become decisive at the next stage of human development?

We will try to answer these questions in a series of publications about the exhibition, consisting of three blocks:

– “Yesterday”
– “Today”
– “Tomorrow”

Continued in the next post👇