*US OCT. NONFARM PAYROLLS FALL 105K M/M; EST. -25K

*US AUG PAYROLLS REVISED TO -26K FROM -4k

*US SEPT. PAYROLLS REVISED TO +108K FROM +119K

*US NOV. NONFARM PAYROLLS RISE 64K M/M; EST. +50K

*US NOV. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 4.6%; EST. 4.4%

* FEDERAL GOVERNMENT OCT. CHANGE: -162K

* FEDERAL GOVERNMENT NOV. CHANGE: -6K

* EX GOVT, OCT +57K, NOV +70K

* OIL HITS 5-YEAR LOW: INFINITYHEDGE

* Russia Oil Prices Also Hit Lowest Since War Began on Western Pressure

* Russian Oil down 28% over the last three months, with recent restrictions targeting oil giants Rosneft PJSC and Lukoil PJSC widening the markdowns.

* Indian imports (largest importer) of Russian oil are expected to fall to ~800kbpd in Dec. 2025 (~50% drop). Jan 2026 forecast is just 500kbpd lowest in 4 years)

* Russia need Oil revenue to fund its war. Oil and Gas revenues accounted for 25% of Russia's federal budget. Oil and Gas revenues in Dec. is at 4-year low per rtrs.

* Russia needs to refill its war chest, which is now down to $1b/week vs $2b back in the summer.

TRUMP: WILL BE GIVING AN ADDRESS TO NATION TOMORROW NIGHT AT 9PM EST, LIVE FROM WHITE HOUSE

* Trump's Address Will Be About Accomplishments, What's To Come Next, Maybe Tease New Year Policies: White House

TESLA SHARES HIT ATH

*BINANCE EXPLORING US COMEBACK STRATEGY INCLUDING A POTENTIAL RECAPITALIZATION THAT COULD REDUCE CZ'S MAJORITY STAKE: INFINITYHEDGE VIA BBG

*BINANCE ALSO PURSUING CLOSER RELATIONSHIPS WITH BLACKROCK INCLUDING ADDITIONAL PRODUCTS AND POTENTIAL REVENUE-SHARING ARRANGEMENTS

*BINANCE URGENTLY SEEKING US MARKET REENTRY BEFORE POTENTIAL DEMOCRATIC POLITICAL SHIFT IN MIDTERM ELECTIONS

*WE CANNOT COMMENT ON HYPOTHETICAL STORYLINES, NONE OF THESE SPECULATIVE SCENARIOS REFLECT ACCURATE FACTS: BINANCE SPOKESPERSON

* SILVER SURPASSES GOOGLE TO BECOME THE 4TH LARGEST ASSET BY MARKET CAP: INFINITYHEDGE

*US NOV. CONSUMER PRICES RISE 2.7% Y/Y; EST. +3.1%

*US NOV. CORE CPI RISES 2.6% Y/Y; EST. +3.0%

*U.S. CORE CPI EASES TO SLOWEST PACE SINCE 2021

Views:
* GS: canceling of the Oct report makes MoM comparisons impossible...Fed will instead focus on the Dec. CPI for more accurate bellwether for inflation.

* Omair Sharif: This is totally inexcusable. BLS just assumed rent/OER were zero for Oct....There is just no world in which this was a good idea... (While he says there may be a good technical reason for doing so, the end result has distorted the data)

BE: One notable takeaway from the October-November CPI report is that inflation in most tariffed-exposed goods categories is peaking or has already peaked. Businesses slashed prices in November amid holiday sales events. Food-price growth slowed sharply in both months.

* Also Remember what Powell said last week. There may be quality issues with these numbers, given gov shutdown. Both inflation & labor market data “may be distorted,” he said. He called out the CPI specifically in saying “we’re going to look at that really carefully and understand that it may be distorted by very technical factors."

“All told this is a positive report, that comes with an asterisk."

BOJ RAISES INTEREST RATES TO 30-YEAR HIGH AS EXPECTED, FIRST HIKE SINCE JANUARY 2025: INFINITYHEDGE

JAPAN 10-YEAR YIELD HITS 2%, HIGHEST SINCE 2006: INFINITYHEDGE

TRUMP: THE ONLY REASON OUR UNEMPLOYMENT TICKED UP TO 4.5% IS BECAUSE WE ARE REDUCING THE GOVERNMENT WORKFORCE BY NUMBERS THAT HAVE NEVER BEEN SEEN BEFORE. 100% OF OUR NEW JOBS ARE IN THE PRIVATE SECTOR! I COULD REDUCE UNEMPLOYMENT TO 2% OVERNIGHT BY JUST HIRING PEOPLE INTO THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT, EVEN THOUGH THOSE JOBS ARE NOT NECESSARY.

DEBASEMENT TRADE CONTINUES: INFINITYHEDGE

*GOLD HITS RECORD HIGH OF $4,420
*SILVER HITS RECORD HIGH OF $69.4
*COPPER HITS RECORD HIGH OF $11,990
*PLATINUM RISES TO 17-YEAR HIGH
*PALLADIUM HITS 3-YEAR HIGH

The Week Ahead: infinityhedge

Mon: Saylor expected announce another BTC purchase

Tue: U.S. delayed Q3 GDP

Wed: Christmas Eve Markets close early

Thu: Christmas Day Markets closed

Fri: $24B worth of BTC Options Expiry: Max Pain Price $96k; Put/Call 0.37; OTM Calls value: $21B; Call options are clustered at strike prices of $100k and $120k, with heavy put option exposure accumulating at $85k.

ICYMI:
* Trump Orders Blockade of Sanctioned Oil Tankers in Venezuela
* Amount of oil held on tankers has risen to 1.3B barrels of “oil on water” - crude held at sea, That is the largest volume since April 2020, when oil consumption cratered due to COVID-19 lockdowns, and about 30% higher than August levels. This spike in supplies on water is partly due to tightening sanctions on Russia.
* NVIDIA, BlackRock, Microsoft Backed Startup PsiQuantum Founder: so we will have useful quantum computers solving meaningful problems across science and technology you know creating new technologies generating revenue, having serious impact way before Qday (break RSA encryption) happens and so we will be forewarned when you start to see people using quantum computers to solve really genuinely important problems then you can think right well maybe Qday is actually 5 years away maybe 10 years away and that’s when you should start to to worry right.

https://infinityhedge.substack.com/p/the-7-days-118

US TO TAKE TARIFF ACTION ON SEMICONDUCTORS FROM CHINA

U.S. SAYS TARIFF ON CHINA SEMICONDUCTORS ZERO UNTIL JUNE 2027

Context: These new tariffs (0% for now but US will announce new tariff rate in 2027) are in addition to the existing 50% Section 301 tariff that's already in place on semiconductors from China.

* SILVER SURPASSES APPLE TO BECOME THE 3RD LARGEST ASSET BY MARKET CAP: INFINITYHEDGE

S&P 500 HITS RECORD HIGH: INFINITYHEDGE

Merry Christmas & Happy Holidays Everyone ☃️ 🎄👻

NVIDIA BUYING AI CHIP STARTUP GROQ FOR ABOUT $20B IN CASH IN ITS LARGEST ACQUISITION ON RECORD: CNBC

Groq was founded by creators of google’s TPU Chip

UPDATE:
Nvidia: We're not acquiring Groq, We're just licensing tech. We will integrate Groq products into future offerings.

Groq entered into a non-exclusive licensing agreement with Nvidia for Groq’s inference technology.

As part of this agreement, Jonathan Ross, Groq’s Founder, Sunny Madra, Groq’s President, and other members of the Groq team will join Nvidia to help advance and scale the licensed technology.

TRUST WALLET EXTENSION MAYBE COMPROMISED ⚠️

ZACHXBT: A number of Trust Wallet users have reported that funds were drained from wallet addresses within the past couple hours. While the exact root cause has not been determined coincidentally the Trust Wallet Chrome extension pushed a new update yesterday.

Trust Wallet: We’ve identified a security incident affecting Trust Wallet Browser Extension version 2.68 only. Users with Browser Extension 2.68 should disable and upgrade to 2.69.

Please note: Mobile-only users and all other browser extension versions are not impacted.

Update from Trust Wallet:

*Confirmed that ~$7M has been impacted and all affected users will get refund.

*For affected users on Browser Extension v2.68, please follow these steps as soon as possible:

Step 1: Do NOT open the Trust Wallet Browser Extension v2.68 on your device.

Step 2: Go to Extensions settings in your browser, Switch the toggle to "Off" below the Trust Wallet if it's still "On".

Step 3: Click "Developer mode" in the upper right corner. And Press the "Update" on the left upper corner.

Step 4. Check the version number: 2.69. This is the latest and secure version.

*CHINA IMPOSES COUNTERMEASURES ON 20 US MILITARY COMPANIES AND 10 EXECUTIVES OVER TAIWAN ARMS SALES: INFINITYHEDGE

*CHINA FREEZES ASSETS AND BANS TRANSACTIONS WITH NORTHROP GRUMMAN, BOEING ST. LOUIS, L3HARRIS AND OTHER DEFENSE CONTRACTORS

*CHINA FREEZES ASSETS AND DENIES VISAS TO ANDURIL FOUNDER PALMER LUKEY, L3HARRIS EXECUTIVES AND OTHER DEFENSE TECHNOLOGY LEADERS INTO CHINA (INCLUDING HONG KONG AND MACAO)

*MINISTRY OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS SAYS MEASURES VIOLATE ONE-CHINA PRINCIPLE AND INTERFERE IN CHINA'S INTERNAL AFFAIRS

CHINA: THIS DECISION SHALL COME INTO FORCE AS OF DECEMBER 26, 2025

CONTEXT: U.S. APPROVED $11 BILLION IN ARMS SALES TO TAIWAN WEEK AGO.

*From BBG: Most of the companies and executives targeted have little or no presence in China, and some were already placed on the Commerce Ministry’s unreliable entity list.