#Iran retaliatory strike on #Israel

Alex Christoforou on X:

"

Iran side:
Iran is celebrating a successful retaliation. They responded to the attack on their Embassy in Syria.
They showcased their military capabilities. They showcased powerful hypersonic missiles. Iran shows it is a force in the region.
Iran saves face.

Israel side:
CNN: "No reports of injuries directly through Iranian strikes" and "Israel's military says 99% of weapons fired by Iran intercepted" and finally "The US assessment is that Iran’s attacks had been largely unsuccessful."
Israel's Air Defense is strong. US Air Defense is strong (MIC sales $$$).
Israel saves face.

US/Biden WH:
Neocons want Iran war. Biden is a neocon, but a neocon trying to get re-elected. Any other time in his Presidency and Biden would be all in...BUT Jake Sullivan who runs Biden's foreign policy is a campaign guy at heart, and he knows war with Iran would sink Biden's re-election. They opted for a calibrated response/defense, with an off-ramp for all sides.

FT hinted that US and Iran are in back-channel talks facilitated by Oman, "Tehran is unlikely to target Israeli diplomatic facilities in the region, said an official briefed on talks between Iran and Oman, the Gulf state that has often facilitated back-channel diplomacy between Tehran and Washington."

Biden WH official readout: "Tomorrow, I will convene my fellow G7 leaders to coordinate a united diplomatic response to Iran’s brazen attack."
KEY WORD is "diplomatic" not military response.

Conclusion:
There is no need for further escalation. A wider war can EASILY be avoided. Everyone can walk away from this claiming a W.

Problem:
Netanyahu, hardliners and neocons (whispering in Bibi's ears), as well as Biden WH mixed messaging.

Israel appears to be going along with the US narrative (for now), but Netanyhu may want to test Biden and launch a strike on Iran. Biden WH said they will not take part in a conflict with Iran, but Biden WH also said their support for Israel is ironclad. MIXED MESSAGING.

Biden has given Netanyahu many blank checks. Bibi may try his luck and cash in another check. Biden said the US will not join Israel in an attack against Iran, but Bibi may want to test that statement, and the neocons will be pushing him to do just that.

👉Long post, but I believe this is where we are.
NO NEED FOR WIDER WAR! This is an easy one to walk away from. All Biden and his team of foreign policy wiz kids need to do is make it very clear that this ends NOW, for all parties involved"

#Iran retaliatory strike on #Israel

Fadi Quran on X:

"My analysis is that the scale of Iran’s attack, the diversity of locations it targeted, and weapons it used, forced Israel to uncover the majority of anti-missile technologies the US and it have across the region. The Iranians did not use any weapons Israel didn’t know it had, it just used a lot of them. But the Iranians likely now have almost a full map of what Israel’s missile defence system looks like, as well as where in Jordan and the Gulf the US has installations. It also knows how long it takes to prepare them, how Israeli society responds…etc This is a huge strategic cost to Israel, while Arab regimes now are being blasted by their peoples, particularly the Jordanian monarchy, for not doing anything to protect Gazans but then going all out to protect Israel. Crucially, Iran can now reverse engineer all the intel gathered from this attack to make a much more deadly one credible. While the US and Israel will have to re-design away from their current model which has been compromised. Its success in stopping this choreographed attack is thus still very costly. Moreover, with the threat of a regional war that neither the US nor the Arab regimes want feeling nearer, it’s likely their pressure on Israel to back down will increase, making a ceasefire more feasible. Anyone assuming this is just theatrics is missing the context of how militaries assess strategy versus tactics. Theatre is an important factor, but gathering intelligence of the “enemy’s” posture is more valuable, especially if one believes they’re in a long war of attrition. Netanyahu and the Israel government prefer a quick hot and urgent war where they can pull in America. The Iranians prefer a longer war of attrition that bleeds Israel of its deterrence capabilities and makes it an ally for Arabs and the US that’s too costly to have. Lastly, if you are a person who hates war, if you want peace, the best and only way to get there in the region is to support the Palestinian struggle for freedom, justice and dignity. There is no sustainable peace possible as long as Palestinians live under an oppressive system of apartheid."

#Iran retaliatory strike on #Israel

Rania Khalek on X:

"THE KEY TAKEAWAY FROM THE IRANIAN RETALIATION ON ISRAEL:

This is a deterrence win for Iran.

Had Israel been taken by surprise and not had the days long preparation to mitigate the impact of an Iranian attack this large, the damage would have been huge.

There is no way Israel could have intercepted hundreds of Iranian missiles without a week of its allies putting defenses in place and Iran intentionally taking its time.

A real war would NOT be telegraphed in advance so Israel can prepare with a symphony of air defenses from its allies.

Biden understands the risks posed by further escalation, especially to US forces, which is why he told Netanyahu he will not back an Israeli counterstrike."

The equation in the region has changed and Iran did it masterfully and responsibly without igniting the big war."

Debunking #EU #UrsulavonderLeyen fabrications and disinformation

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1779483481703162342.html?utm_campaign=topunroll

Seyed Mohammad Marandi, a professor at the University of Tehran:

The Iranians used inexpensive older generation drones and missiles to force the Israelis and their Western allies to fire interceptor missiles worth $1.3 billion.

Iran didn't reveal any of its latest technology. The Zionists did the opposite.

Who won?

https://www.channel4.com/news/if-the-israeli-regime-wants-to-continue-iran-will-have-the-excuse-to-hit-it-harder-and-harder-says-university-of-tehran-professor

🇬🇪-🇺🇸🇪🇺US-backed mobs attempt to coerce Georgia's government to abandon a bill that would restrict US-European interference in their internal political affairs.

Besides the fact that Georgia has a right to defend against foreign interference under international law, and that the US-Europe have much stricter laws, the fact that the West is using opposition it controls to pass or oppose laws in another sovereign country demonstrates how dangerous this is and how important it is for Georgia and ALL other nations to pass similar legislation... ↘️↘️↘️

This is the West's "international order," under which they dictate everyone's matters to them all around the world, serving their own interests at everyone else's expense, in complete contravention of international law.

"An Iranian military security official has revealed that the US contacted the Islamic Republic, asking the nation to allow Israel 'a symbolic strike to save face' following Iran's retaliatory drone and missile barrage this weekend."

https://thecradle.co/articles-id/24419

#Gaza

A trauma surgeon who has worked in many of the worst war zones over the last 3 decades says he has never seen anything as horrific or destroyed as Gaza.

The UK surgeon David Nott describes a complete destruction of civilian society and medical care.

Dr. Nott's article goes on and on and on with one horrifying story like this after the next. Again, he has been in war zones in Syria, Yemen, Afghanistan and Iraq. Nothing is even close to what he's seen in Gaza, he says.

https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2024/04/15/a-trauma-surgeon-on-why-gaza-is-the-worst-of-war-zones

Iran targets Muslims and their holy sites, while Israel protects them, implies Gilad Erdan at the UNSC while holding up a video of drones and missiles being intercepted over the Dome of the Rock in occupied Jerusalem.

He attributes this to Iran's disregard for Muslims due to the "Ayatollah regime's plot to impose a global Shiite hegemony" through its "proxies" that comes at the expense of Palestinians.

This Israeli narrative is not only found in western media, but has been peddled by Gulf media for years in order to incite sectarian strife and keep the region divided.

Israel's existence and well being depends and thrives on sectarian conflict and division in the region, as once outlined so eloquently in Oded Yinon's 'A Strategy for Israel in the 1980's,' published in 1982.

Russian MFA Spox Maria Zakharova:

💬 When asked at today’s briefing if Antonio Guterres thinks that the UN should know who is responsible for the strikes at the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant, Spokesperson for the UN Secretary-General Stephane Dujjaric said they do not have a forensic capability of reporting on these strikes, nor does the IAEA. Nor do we have an investigative mandate, he added.

What about his conclusions on Bucha two years ago?

At the briefing on April 7, 2022,Stephane Dujjaric said they wanted to see a transparent investigation. He said there are various mechanisms within the UN system to ensure accountability for what could be very serious crimes. Those mechanisms are currently underway, he added.

So, are these mechanisms underway or is the mandate missing?

#UK foreign secretary David Cameron, who criticized Iranian response to Israel while adding that the UK would have done same, has been called out for blatant hypocrisy.

https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2024/04/17/723848/how-cameron-squirmed-after-grilled-israeli-terrorism-against-iran