$40k: Pre-ETF's - Anticipation of a "sell the news" event with the ETF release [Bearish Sentiment]. The market surged by $5k points.

$45k: Bullish response as the ETF gets approval [Bullish Sentiment]. However, the market experienced a dip of 5k points. when no one was expecting it anymore.

nicely reflected.

coincidencE!?

SEC delays Blackrock spot Ethereum ETF.

In January 2024, tokens with unlocks performed well. $SUI with a cumulative return of only 250%. Notably, $SUI is also part of Binance Launchpad, as I pointed out a few days ago, the significance of paying attention to Launchpad coins...

Sui Orderbooks

Jan 2023 ~ $100m volume base, with bear market, theis > Shorting the Unlocks bottomed > $0.40 < Oct/2023.

Jan 2024 ~ $250m volume base, with bull market, theis > Long the Unlocks Instead of shorting > $1.70.

In a bull market, one should be longing the coins with the worst tokenomics/theme. [Instead of shorting]

But,

Can coins move this fast? (Check Waves/narrative)
Can the bid fill in this fast? (Check order books)

The innovation of Bitcoin was independent. So, why does it now need to be dependent on ETFs' flow? Bitcoin does not need a secondary backer. /noise

Bitcoin seasonality vs. the last 5 cycles.

The correction is part of the rally, with January/February usually sideways or showing negative returns, which is nothing extraordinary. [Check reference graph].

This year is 2024, an election year. Markets are expected to have more optimism compared to other non-election years.

Token unlocks List for Feb month, the market focus will be around these coins..

Narrative Screen:

L1/2: [Binance listed, backed by Jump/Coinbase, Paradigm, tier-1 VCs]

AI: [Hyped, shilled by MM like (dwf), getting listed on Binance]

LRT: [New narrative, a small category with a few coins. LSD gave birth to LSDFI; now, the LRT narrative is giving birth to LRTfi.] Worth Monitoring.

Modular/DA [ hated rally, wrecked Airdrop Structure] hated = Top rated.

SocialFi [ New Projects, Friendtech, DESO/GAL]...

Year'o Rabbit year [22 Jan 2023 to Feb 2024, water hare].

year ending in Feb of 2024 is moving to a cyclical point that usually has positive corrections for BTC, This Spring.

Think Bitcoin can spike to $49k or 10% from here this month, While Newly listed tokens can do well, [DYM//TIA/ etc [Launchpad bucket], Hated coins, Token Unlocks]

[Embrace the cycles of the market, akin to the year of the rabbit, where strategic timing and agility breed opportunity]

Avg ~ 13% tradfi | 10% Crypto.

HashKey Capital transferred 700,000 $PENDLE ($2.17M) to Binance, anticipating a $1.61M profit (2.85x).

Early Activity:

19x returns in November 2022.
3x returns in July 2023 by selling Pendle.

The move was pretty fast, impulsive, with an 11% in 2 days. shared at $43k, now $48k.

Grayscale GBTC’s daily flows [fud = bottom]

Solana new launches last 3days ^(90% are down -95%) if one can't capture all moves of Bitcoin!how they can ape the next 50x?

most of these new launches insiders backed by small groups [ pre whitelisted wallets (family/friends), folks aping only to provide them exit)..

Grayscale Trader in charge just woke up and started deposting $140 million worth of BTC > Coinbase.

$BTC ~ $49k 🎯