https://www.fnlondon.com/articles/london-crypto-hedge-funds-nickel-fasanara-extend-gains-amid-volatility-3a62fac6?

very Imp Week Ahead:12/08

Project Updates:
Aleph Zero will launch its EVM mainnet on August 12, 2024.
Aelf will complete its upgrade to version 1.10.0 by August 12, 2024.
Kelp DAO launches Gain, an airdrop farming tool, on Aug 13.
Delysium will integrate Lucy Beta with the Owlto Finance bridge on August 15, 2024.
ALEX Lab will integrate xBTC and xUSD into aBTC and sUSDT by August 15, 2024.
MakerDAO’s Grand Prix aims to onboard $1B in RWAs, with BlackRock expected to participate.
Frax Finance introduces frxBTC, a WBTC competitor.
Ethena’s proposal to add SOL as USDe backing goes live.

Macro:
PPI Inflation (Tuesday)
CPI Inflation (Wednesday)
Jobless Claims (Thursday)

Token Unlocks:
$APT $67.63m 2.40% ~ Aug 12
$SAND $53.68m 9.00% ~ Aug 14
$CYBER $5.92m 8.54% ~ Aug 14
$STRK $24.34m 3.95% ~ Aug 15
$ARB $54.28m 2.87% ~ Aug 16

Next week's market risk might come from PPI and CPI numbers, with market action driven by the US dollar, especially USD/JPY. Many are still short JPY and long on US Dollar assets, which may take some weeks or month to settle. A strong Yen could lead to more sell-offs in US stocks and crypto.

Good US data (PPI, CPI) could be bullish, while bad data weakens the dollar, strengthening the Yen, Some Token Unlocks trades worth monitoring with $SAND, 9.0%, $Cyber 8.54% of circulating supply unlocks.

July token unlocks performance:
Another third consecutive month with an average drawdown of -45% for tokens $m value unlocks

Volume book $.

The most common entities receiving token unlocks were team members and advisors, early investors, and community development funds.

August 2024 is set to release nearly $1.5 billion worth of tokens across various projects.

The most significant unlocks involve team members, advisors, strategic partners, and community development funds... add to your watchlist.

CPI Day est; 3.0%
Banks forecasts for today CPI.

Last 8 CPI releases $BTC price performance.

Week Ahead:19/08


Project Updates:
Babylon: BTC staking protocol launching on mainnet this week.
$ARB: stARB liquid staking approved, launch imminent.
$EIGEN: Permissionless token support on mainnet next week.
$NAKA: New staking model for Nakamoto Games token coming soon.
$CGPT: TapCGPT game launching on Telegram on Aug 20, 2024.
$USDC (Scroll): Darwin upgrade launching on Aug 21, 2024.
$AGI: Delysium launching Nodpad on Aug 22, 2024.
$ACA: Unlocking 4.6M ACA tokens on Aug 25, 2024.
$STRK: StarkNet v.0.13.2 releasing in August.


Token Unlocks:
$PIXEL: $7.98m (7.05%) ~ August 19
$AVAX: $198.85m (2.41%) ~ August 19
$ID: $6.69m (4.29%) ~ August 21
$AGIX: $3.01m (1.55%) ~ August 27
$AVAX: $200M worth of AVAX, with most of it going to the team.

Macro Events:
FED FOMC Minutes: Wednesday, August 21
Jobless Claims: Thursday, August 22
Manufacturing PMI: Thursday, August 22

The markets have calmed down a bit since early August but are still expecting the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 33% chance of 25 basis points in September, with nearly 100 basis points expected for the rest of 2024, and even more cuts next year.

On Friday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will speak and could either agree with the market's expectations for rate cuts or push back against them.

On the other side, investors are either flat or positioned in gold ahead of the elections due to safety risks. Currently, the odds are 50% for Harris and 50% for Trump. Given the historical average of a 23.07% bias in favor of Democratic candidates on prediction markets, we expect no volatility this month. Whether the Fed cuts rates or not might signal the next leg in the markets.

However, if you are a buyer and prefer (DCA), you should not be worried about these factors; instead, focus on buying through DCA. The market might wipe out all the excess leverage over time, and that will likely happen before any major move to the upside or downside.

Jackson Hole on Friday might provide an outlook on the Fed's policy path and any indications of rate cuts next month, but Treasury traders' bets are at historical levels, expecting rate cuts from the Fed.

JPM client survey

Since $AVAX launched, the project has unlocked $7.76 billion worth of tokens over time, with the last $219 million cliff unlock yesterday. Going forward, there are no more large cliff unlocks on $AVAX till 2029..

The token is down from a $32 billion ATH market cap to $9.40 billion now, with the token price down from an ATH of $145 to $22.

This Week Ahead:

Project Updates

$Soneium: Testnet launch & airdrop - Aug 28, 2024.
$STX: Nakamoto to ship code, activation window opens - Aug 28, 2024.
$STRK: Starknet v0.13.2 introduces block packing & parallel execution - Aug 28, 2024.
$DASH: Evolution-chain hard fork activation - Aug 28, 2024.
$ARB: Stylus Sprint program snapshot vote begins - Aug 29, 2024.
$GS: GammaSwap token launch & airdrop - Aug 30, 2024.
$INJ: Altaris mainnet upgrade for scalability - expected this week (Aug 2024).
$AERGO: Preparing for v.4.0 hard fork - expected this week (Aug 2024).

Token Unlocks:
$YGG: $6.21M unlock (3.70%) - Aug 26, 2024.
$TORN: $215.42K unlock (2.41%) - Aug 28, 2024.
$OP: $47.64M unlock (2.64%) - Aug 29, 2024.
$PRIME: $6.47M unlock (1.68%) - Aug 29, 2024.

Macro Events:
Aug 28, 2024: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speaks.
Aug 28, 2024: Nvidia Q2 report, Fed speeches.
Aug 29, 2024: Q2 GDP 2nd revision.
Aug 30, 2024: U.S. July PCE inflation data.

Chair Powell indicated something in last week's meeting. He said everything the market was looking for. Bitcoin and the crypto sector might reach new highs. 90% of raw feed around is just noise! and sub farming.