🗞Today, China has published its industrial production data for November (see table above)
#statistics #China
#statistics #China
Morning Bites
🔗China’s crude steel output declined 11% YoY in November, broadly in-line with the 12% YoY drop in October, per NBS data. The recent production decreases were related to Beijing’s plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025 and strictly prohibit new capacity additions in 2025-26. Given the ongoing crisis in the global steelmaking industry, Beijing might introduce additional supply control similar to the measures it imposed in 2016-17, we believe. Although local crude steel supply dropped 4% YoY in 11mo25, per official data, Chinese net exports were still up 7% YoY over the period, weighing on global steel prices
🏢China's property sales decreased 18% YoY in November, after the 20% YoY decline in October; they were 55% lower than in the same month in 2021. Meanwhile, floor space starts decreased a further 28% YoY in November (-73% vs. 2021). Personal mortgage loans also dropped 35% YoY in November (-68% vs. 2021), while property completions were also down 25% YoY
#steel #property
🔗China’s crude steel output declined 11% YoY in November, broadly in-line with the 12% YoY drop in October, per NBS data. The recent production decreases were related to Beijing’s plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025 and strictly prohibit new capacity additions in 2025-26. Given the ongoing crisis in the global steelmaking industry, Beijing might introduce additional supply control similar to the measures it imposed in 2016-17, we believe. Although local crude steel supply dropped 4% YoY in 11mo25, per official data, Chinese net exports were still up 7% YoY over the period, weighing on global steel prices
🏢China's property sales decreased 18% YoY in November, after the 20% YoY decline in October; they were 55% lower than in the same month in 2021. Meanwhile, floor space starts decreased a further 28% YoY in November (-73% vs. 2021). Personal mortgage loans also dropped 35% YoY in November (-68% vs. 2021), while property completions were also down 25% YoY
#steel #property
Morning Bites (part 1)
⚒️Nornickel has released its updated view on commodities, which still forecasts the global Cu market to be balanced in 2025-27, but highlights new supply risks and low inventories. This estimate looks conservative to us, amid recent supply disruptions at major copper mines
• Nornickel also expects the Pd market to be broadly balanced in 2025-26. Meanwhile, it still forecasts a moderate deficit of 0.3mnoz (~4% of demand) on the Pt market in 2025-26
❗️In our view, the upcoming China 7 emissions standard might materially increase local autocatalyst PGM loadings, supporting Pd/Pt market fundamentals in the medium-term
• Per Nornickel, the Ni market is now set to remain in a bigger surplus of 240-275kt in 2025-26 (vs. its previous estimate of 120kt in 2025), reflecting the ongoing growth in Indonesian output
#nickel #PGMs #copper
⚒️Nornickel has released its updated view on commodities, which still forecasts the global Cu market to be balanced in 2025-27, but highlights new supply risks and low inventories. This estimate looks conservative to us, amid recent supply disruptions at major copper mines
• Nornickel also expects the Pd market to be broadly balanced in 2025-26. Meanwhile, it still forecasts a moderate deficit of 0.3mnoz (~4% of demand) on the Pt market in 2025-26
❗️In our view, the upcoming China 7 emissions standard might materially increase local autocatalyst PGM loadings, supporting Pd/Pt market fundamentals in the medium-term
• Per Nornickel, the Ni market is now set to remain in a bigger surplus of 240-275kt in 2025-26 (vs. its previous estimate of 120kt in 2025), reflecting the ongoing growth in Indonesian output
#nickel #PGMs #copper
Morning Bites (part 2)
🏗China is to regulate steel exports with a licence system from January 2026 as part of Beijing’s efforts to revive a depressed market, Reuters reports, citing a CISA statement. We remind readers that continuously soft local steel demand (amid the property sector downturn) led to abnormally high China’s steel export volumes (+25% YoY in 2024 and +7% YoY in 11mo25), weighing on global steel prices
In our view, new export control measures, aligned with new supply restrictions in China, might help to normalise the country’s outbound shipments and support global steel prices in 2026, as it gives Beijing a flexible administrative tool to slow or redirect steel exports without formally imposing quotas or tariffs
#steel
🏗China is to regulate steel exports with a licence system from January 2026 as part of Beijing’s efforts to revive a depressed market, Reuters reports, citing a CISA statement. We remind readers that continuously soft local steel demand (amid the property sector downturn) led to abnormally high China’s steel export volumes (+25% YoY in 2024 and +7% YoY in 11mo25), weighing on global steel prices
In our view, new export control measures, aligned with new supply restrictions in China, might help to normalise the country’s outbound shipments and support global steel prices in 2026, as it gives Beijing a flexible administrative tool to slow or redirect steel exports without formally imposing quotas or tariffs
#steel
Morning Bites
🚗 The European Commission has proposed easing the 2035 ban on the sale of new ICE-containing cars, shifting the target from vehicles having zero emissions to a 90% reduction in CO₂ from 2021 levels, Reuters reports. This proposal still requires approval by the EU Parliament and member states, but could effectively leave room for further production of local hybrid (PHEV/HEV/REEV) cars
In our view, the proposal reflects ongoing debates on softening or stretching the transition timeline, rather than a reversal toward ICEs. The full ban is unlikely to be cancelled, with a delay or more flexible approach seeming more realistic
Although the EU accounts for ~20% of global Pd and Pt autocatalyst demand, we do not expect a material effect on market fundamentals in the near term. However, the policy retreat is overall positive for sentiment on PGMs, we believe
#PGMs
🚗 The European Commission has proposed easing the 2035 ban on the sale of new ICE-containing cars, shifting the target from vehicles having zero emissions to a 90% reduction in CO₂ from 2021 levels, Reuters reports. This proposal still requires approval by the EU Parliament and member states, but could effectively leave room for further production of local hybrid (PHEV/HEV/REEV) cars
In our view, the proposal reflects ongoing debates on softening or stretching the transition timeline, rather than a reversal toward ICEs. The full ban is unlikely to be cancelled, with a delay or more flexible approach seeming more realistic
Although the EU accounts for ~20% of global Pd and Pt autocatalyst demand, we do not expect a material effect on market fundamentals in the near term. However, the policy retreat is overall positive for sentiment on PGMs, we believe
#PGMs
Morning Bites
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production in early-December was 1.87mnt, up 2.8% from the previous ten days, but 7.7% lower YoY. Local steel inventories also gained 3.3% over the period, and were 4.0% higher YoY
CISA data shows that, YTD through 10 December, local production slid 0.7% YoY; however, the official NBS data showed the country's steel output down 4.0% YoY in 11mo25, while Chinese net export volumes (which grew 25% YoY in 2024 and 7% YoY in 11mo25) remain elevated
To recap, in late October, China held a plenum meeting regarding its 2026-30 strategic industries plan (details to be released in March 2026). Given the ongoing crisis on the global steel market, Beijing might introduce additional strict supply-control measures similar to the 2016-17 reform (when >100mnt of steelmaking capacities was removed). The new reform, if announced, might trigger a recovery in global steel prices in 2026, we believe
China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply
#steel
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production in early-December was 1.87mnt, up 2.8% from the previous ten days, but 7.7% lower YoY. Local steel inventories also gained 3.3% over the period, and were 4.0% higher YoY
CISA data shows that, YTD through 10 December, local production slid 0.7% YoY; however, the official NBS data showed the country's steel output down 4.0% YoY in 11mo25, while Chinese net export volumes (which grew 25% YoY in 2024 and 7% YoY in 11mo25) remain elevated
To recap, in late October, China held a plenum meeting regarding its 2026-30 strategic industries plan (details to be released in March 2026). Given the ongoing crisis on the global steel market, Beijing might introduce additional strict supply-control measures similar to the 2016-17 reform (when >100mnt of steelmaking capacities was removed). The new reform, if announced, might trigger a recovery in global steel prices in 2026, we believe
China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply
#steel
Morning Bites
💎US jewellery sales inched down 1% YoY in September, after the revised +5% YoY in August, IDEX reports, citing local Department of Commerce data. Despite the new US import tariffs on India’s goods (raised to 50% since late August), there was no material effect on September's sales and any impact would likely be gradual, according to the agency
We maintain our cautious view on the medium-term prospects for a recovery in the global diamond market, given the risks to supply discipline related to Anglo American's planned sale of De Beers (which is currently disrupting the price-over-volume strategy), as well as concerns about a global trade war
#diamonds
💎US jewellery sales inched down 1% YoY in September, after the revised +5% YoY in August, IDEX reports, citing local Department of Commerce data. Despite the new US import tariffs on India’s goods (raised to 50% since late August), there was no material effect on September's sales and any impact would likely be gradual, according to the agency
We maintain our cautious view on the medium-term prospects for a recovery in the global diamond market, given the risks to supply discipline related to Anglo American's planned sale of De Beers (which is currently disrupting the price-over-volume strategy), as well as concerns about a global trade war
#diamonds
Morning Bites
🇨🇳Total car sales in China increased 3% YoY in November (vs. +9% YoY in October)
📌China’s new cataIyst containing (ICE+hybrids) car sales slid 6% YoY in November (vs. flat YoY in October). In our view, the news suggesting support for EVs might be excluded from China’s 2026-30 strategic industries plan (as recently reported by Reuters), as well as the potentially higher PGM loadings into local autocatalysts after 2026 (due to the upcoming China 7 emissions standard), are likely to bolster Pd/Pt market fundamentals in the medium term. To recap, the Chinese automotive sector accounts for 20% and 17% of global Pd and Pt demand, respectively
📌New EV sales in China jumped 21% YoY in November, vs. the +20% YoY in October. Specifically, local BEV sales (64% of total EV registrations) gained 29% YoY, while PHEVs added 8% YoY
#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
🇨🇳Total car sales in China increased 3% YoY in November (vs. +9% YoY in October)
📌China’s new cataIyst containing (ICE+hybrids) car sales slid 6% YoY in November (vs. flat YoY in October). In our view, the news suggesting support for EVs might be excluded from China’s 2026-30 strategic industries plan (as recently reported by Reuters), as well as the potentially higher PGM loadings into local autocatalysts after 2026 (due to the upcoming China 7 emissions standard), are likely to bolster Pd/Pt market fundamentals in the medium term. To recap, the Chinese automotive sector accounts for 20% and 17% of global Pd and Pt demand, respectively
📌New EV sales in China jumped 21% YoY in November, vs. the +20% YoY in October. Specifically, local BEV sales (64% of total EV registrations) gained 29% YoY, while PHEVs added 8% YoY
#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
Morning Bites
🥉Global mined copper production decreased 3.4% YoY in October, vs. the revised decline of 2.1% YoY in September, the International Copper Study Group reports. For 10mo25, however, the figure was still up 1.9% YoY, mainly driven by growth in Peru (+3% YoY) and the DRC (+7% YoY). In our view, the negative production dynamics might persist in the coming months, given the recent accidents and production disruptions at major mines: Grasberg (~3.5% of global supply in 2024), El Teniente (~2.0%) and Kakula (~1.5%)
Meanwhile, apparent consumption dynamics remained positive, up 5.5% YoY in 10mo25, mainly driven by China (+7.5% YoY)
We maintain our bullish view on copper, amid both short- and long-term supply issues, growing global demand for renewables and surging investments in China’s grid infrastructure (~8% of global Cu demand, on our numbers)
#copper
🥉Global mined copper production decreased 3.4% YoY in October, vs. the revised decline of 2.1% YoY in September, the International Copper Study Group reports. For 10mo25, however, the figure was still up 1.9% YoY, mainly driven by growth in Peru (+3% YoY) and the DRC (+7% YoY). In our view, the negative production dynamics might persist in the coming months, given the recent accidents and production disruptions at major mines: Grasberg (~3.5% of global supply in 2024), El Teniente (~2.0%) and Kakula (~1.5%)
Meanwhile, apparent consumption dynamics remained positive, up 5.5% YoY in 10mo25, mainly driven by China (+7.5% YoY)
We maintain our bullish view on copper, amid both short- and long-term supply issues, growing global demand for renewables and surging investments in China’s grid infrastructure (~8% of global Cu demand, on our numbers)
#copper
Morning Bites
🔗Global crude steel output declined 5% YoY in November to 140mnt, after the 6% drop YoY in October, according to World Steel Association (WSA) data. China’s production (50% of global crude steel supply) decreased 11% YoY (down 4% YoY in 11mo25), while world ex-China output rose 2% YoY, per WSA estimates. Specifically, the WSA data show that Russian and EU supply dropped 7% YoY and 4% YoY, respectively, last month. Meanwhile, US production increased 9% YoY and Indian output (~10% of global steel supply) also gained 11% YoY (up 10% YoY in 11mo25)
To recap, in late-October, China held a plenum meeting regarding its 2026-30 strategic industries plan (to be released in March 2026). Given the ongoing crisis on the global steel market, Beijing might introduce additional strict supply-control measures, similar to the 2016-17 reform (when >100mnt steelmaking capacities were removed), we think. A new reform, if announced, could trigger a recovery in global steel prices in 2026
#steel
🔗Global crude steel output declined 5% YoY in November to 140mnt, after the 6% drop YoY in October, according to World Steel Association (WSA) data. China’s production (50% of global crude steel supply) decreased 11% YoY (down 4% YoY in 11mo25), while world ex-China output rose 2% YoY, per WSA estimates. Specifically, the WSA data show that Russian and EU supply dropped 7% YoY and 4% YoY, respectively, last month. Meanwhile, US production increased 9% YoY and Indian output (~10% of global steel supply) also gained 11% YoY (up 10% YoY in 11mo25)
To recap, in late-October, China held a plenum meeting regarding its 2026-30 strategic industries plan (to be released in March 2026). Given the ongoing crisis on the global steel market, Beijing might introduce additional strict supply-control measures, similar to the 2016-17 reform (when >100mnt steelmaking capacities were removed), we think. A new reform, if announced, could trigger a recovery in global steel prices in 2026
#steel
Morning Bites (part 1)
🏭Global primary aluminium output inched up 0.5% YoY in November, in line with October, according to the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) data. Chinese production (60% of global Al output) also increased; it was up 1.1% YoY last month. Overall, the strong consumption dynamics in Asia (including grid), as well as the ongoing monetary easing cycle in the EU, US and China, are likely to provide further support to Al prices, which we forecast to average USD 3,000/t in 2026F
We also note that there is limited potential for additional supply growth in China, as local Al output is capped at 45mnt (China produced 43.4mnt in 2024, and 44.2mnt in 11mo25 (annualised), per the IAI data)
#aluminium
🏭Global primary aluminium output inched up 0.5% YoY in November, in line with October, according to the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) data. Chinese production (60% of global Al output) also increased; it was up 1.1% YoY last month. Overall, the strong consumption dynamics in Asia (including grid), as well as the ongoing monetary easing cycle in the EU, US and China, are likely to provide further support to Al prices, which we forecast to average USD 3,000/t in 2026F
We also note that there is limited potential for additional supply growth in China, as local Al output is capped at 45mnt (China produced 43.4mnt in 2024, and 44.2mnt in 11mo25 (annualised), per the IAI data)
#aluminium
Morning Bites (part 2)
🚘EU + UK passenger car registrations inched up 1% YoY in November, vs. the 5% YoY gain in October, per the ACEA data. Specifically, local catalyst-containing car sales fell 5%, which was offset by the strong perfomance from BEVs (+35% YoY) last month. However, the overall figure was still 12% lower than the pre-Covid level (November 2019)
We reiterate our view that the ongoing monetary easing cycle in key global economies, the recently announced cancellation of EV-support programmes in the US (from late-September 2025), as well as potentially higher PGM autocatalyst loadings in China in the coming years (due to planned China 7 emissions standard) might bolster Pd/Pt market fundamentals in the medium term
In 2024, the EU+UK accounted for some 23% and 26% of world autocatalyst Pd and Pt demand, respectively
#cars
🚘EU + UK passenger car registrations inched up 1% YoY in November, vs. the 5% YoY gain in October, per the ACEA data. Specifically, local catalyst-containing car sales fell 5%, which was offset by the strong perfomance from BEVs (+35% YoY) last month. However, the overall figure was still 12% lower than the pre-Covid level (November 2019)
We reiterate our view that the ongoing monetary easing cycle in key global economies, the recently announced cancellation of EV-support programmes in the US (from late-September 2025), as well as potentially higher PGM autocatalyst loadings in China in the coming years (due to planned China 7 emissions standard) might bolster Pd/Pt market fundamentals in the medium term
In 2024, the EU+UK accounted for some 23% and 26% of world autocatalyst Pd and Pt demand, respectively
#cars
Morning Bites
📈Russia’s gold output increased 5.6% YoY in November, decelerating from the +7.4% YoY in October, per the Rosstat data. Overall, the country’s gold production in 11mo25 was up 5.7% YoY. Russia accounts for some 10% of the world's mined gold supply
Although, at spot, gold continues to trade above what we see as its long-term fundamentally reasonable level, we think the precious metal’s price will remain high in 1H26, given the strong inflows into global central banks and ETFs, in addition to concerns over global trade
#gold
📈Russia’s gold output increased 5.6% YoY in November, decelerating from the +7.4% YoY in October, per the Rosstat data. Overall, the country’s gold production in 11mo25 was up 5.7% YoY. Russia accounts for some 10% of the world's mined gold supply
Although, at spot, gold continues to trade above what we see as its long-term fundamentally reasonable level, we think the precious metal’s price will remain high in 1H26, given the strong inflows into global central banks and ETFs, in addition to concerns over global trade
#gold
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Morning Bites
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production in mid-December was 1.85mnt, down 1.3% from the previous ten days and also 6.7% lower YoY. Meanwhile, local steel inventories gained 8.5% over the period, and were 9.4% higher YoY
According to the CISA data, YTD through 20 December local production slid 0.9% YoY. However, the official NBS data showed the country's steel output down 4.0% YoY in 11mo25, while Chinese net export volumes (which grew 25% YoY in 2024 and 7% YoY in 11mo25) remain high
To recap, in late October, China held a plenum meeting regarding its 2026-30 strategic industries plan (details to be released in March 2026). Given the ongoing crisis on the global steel market, Beijing might introduce additional strict supply-control measures similar to the 2016-17 reform (when >100mnt of steelmaking capacities was removed). The new reform, if announced, might trigger a recovery in global steel prices in 2026, we believe
China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply
#steel
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production in mid-December was 1.85mnt, down 1.3% from the previous ten days and also 6.7% lower YoY. Meanwhile, local steel inventories gained 8.5% over the period, and were 9.4% higher YoY
According to the CISA data, YTD through 20 December local production slid 0.9% YoY. However, the official NBS data showed the country's steel output down 4.0% YoY in 11mo25, while Chinese net export volumes (which grew 25% YoY in 2024 and 7% YoY in 11mo25) remain high
To recap, in late October, China held a plenum meeting regarding its 2026-30 strategic industries plan (details to be released in March 2026). Given the ongoing crisis on the global steel market, Beijing might introduce additional strict supply-control measures similar to the 2016-17 reform (when >100mnt of steelmaking capacities was removed). The new reform, if announced, might trigger a recovery in global steel prices in 2026, we believe
China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply
#steel
Dear Metals Wire subscribers,
Thank you for being with us throughout 2025. We wish you a very happy New Year, and hope that 2026 glistens for you both at work and at home
We shall return in 2026, and look forward to sharing our analysis of metals & mining commodities, as well as our views on breaking industry news
All the very best,
The Metals Wire Team
Thank you for being with us throughout 2025. We wish you a very happy New Year, and hope that 2026 glistens for you both at work and at home
We shall return in 2026, and look forward to sharing our analysis of metals & mining commodities, as well as our views on breaking industry news
All the very best,
The Metals Wire Team
❤10