Global wealth to grow by 38% by 2027 - UBS and Credit Suisse forecasts
By 2027, global wealth will reach $629 trillion, a 38% increase, according to the 2023 Global Wealth Report released by Credit Suisse and UBS.
Despite a 2.4% drop in net private wealth in 2022, wealth in emerging economies, including the BRICS countries, is projected to grow by 30% by 2027.
Growth by middle-income markets will be the primary driver of global trends. The report estimates wealth per adult to reach $110,270 in 2027 and the number of millionaires to reach 86 million.
And based on 2022 data, global wealth loss was heavily concentrated in now wealthier regions such as North America and Europe, which together lost $10.9 trillion.
The United States leads the list of market losses in 2022, followed by Japan, China, Canada, and Australia.
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By 2027, global wealth will reach $629 trillion, a 38% increase, according to the 2023 Global Wealth Report released by Credit Suisse and UBS.
Despite a 2.4% drop in net private wealth in 2022, wealth in emerging economies, including the BRICS countries, is projected to grow by 30% by 2027.
Growth by middle-income markets will be the primary driver of global trends. The report estimates wealth per adult to reach $110,270 in 2027 and the number of millionaires to reach 86 million.
And based on 2022 data, global wealth loss was heavily concentrated in now wealthier regions such as North America and Europe, which together lost $10.9 trillion.
The United States leads the list of market losses in 2022, followed by Japan, China, Canada, and Australia.
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🇩🇪 50,000 companies have closed due to insufficient funds
Over the first half of the year, 50.6 thousand German companies have already gone bankrupt, Zeit Online reported.
This is about 12% more than the same period last year.
In recent years, government aid has partially contained the surge in bankruptcies caused by the pandemic and the energy crisis. But analysts expect the situation will only worsen from here.
How are those sanctions going? When are the new ones?
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Over the first half of the year, 50.6 thousand German companies have already gone bankrupt, Zeit Online reported.
This is about 12% more than the same period last year.
In recent years, government aid has partially contained the surge in bankruptcies caused by the pandemic and the energy crisis. But analysts expect the situation will only worsen from here.
How are those sanctions going? When are the new ones?
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Forwarded from Geopolitics Prime
“As countries abandon the use of the dollar, we see America's financing problems become real for the first time. The living standards will fall because inflation and import prices will rise. Is this going to happen tomorrow or we wake up? No, but it's already starting to happen. This is a gradual process and it will pick up momentum as it goes and the results become more obvious,” Dr. Paul Craig Roberts, an economist and former Reagan administration official, told the New Rules podcast, commenting on the de-dollarization process
👉 De-dollarization, decline of American industrial might, and the failures of Bidenomics: You can find the full episode on YouTube or Rumble
👉 De-dollarization, decline of American industrial might, and the failures of Bidenomics: You can find the full episode on YouTube or Rumble
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US Treasuries got dumped in June
Saudi Arabia's holdings of US Treasury bonds fell to the lowest level in more than six years.
The country sold more than $3 billion in US government debt in June, offloading the securities for a third consecutive month to bring its holdings to $108.1 billion, according to Treasury Department data. The neighboring UAE sold nearly $4 billion.
Echoing the sell-off, China dumped $11.3 billion in June, bringing it to the lowest level since mid-2009.
Japan and the UK were among the biggest buyers of what’s widely perceived as one of the safest assets to own. But their own economies are continuously pressured by a multitude of factors, and some experts believe that they can barely continue to buy at the same pace.
Falling demand for Treasuries could make it much harder for the US to continue borrowing money as it has historically done.
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Saudi Arabia's holdings of US Treasury bonds fell to the lowest level in more than six years.
The country sold more than $3 billion in US government debt in June, offloading the securities for a third consecutive month to bring its holdings to $108.1 billion, according to Treasury Department data. The neighboring UAE sold nearly $4 billion.
Echoing the sell-off, China dumped $11.3 billion in June, bringing it to the lowest level since mid-2009.
Japan and the UK were among the biggest buyers of what’s widely perceived as one of the safest assets to own. But their own economies are continuously pressured by a multitude of factors, and some experts believe that they can barely continue to buy at the same pace.
Falling demand for Treasuries could make it much harder for the US to continue borrowing money as it has historically done.
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Wheat prices are back in the spotlight
The escalation around Ukraine's ports is keeping the world on edge while wheat prices continue to rise.
After the Ukrainian port of Reni on the Danube was hit overnight, wheat futures in Chicago rose by as much as 1.4%, climbing from their lowest level since early June. Paris milling wheat also rose for the first time in three sessions.
Last week, the US Department of Agriculture raised its estimate of Russian supplies for the 2023-24 season and increased its forecast for US wheat stocks by a larger amount than analysts had expected. However, current prices are already accounting for these positives.
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The escalation around Ukraine's ports is keeping the world on edge while wheat prices continue to rise.
After the Ukrainian port of Reni on the Danube was hit overnight, wheat futures in Chicago rose by as much as 1.4%, climbing from their lowest level since early June. Paris milling wheat also rose for the first time in three sessions.
Last week, the US Department of Agriculture raised its estimate of Russian supplies for the 2023-24 season and increased its forecast for US wheat stocks by a larger amount than analysts had expected. However, current prices are already accounting for these positives.
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🇦🇷 Argentine peso to slide 70% by next year, BofA says
The worst is yet to come for the Argentine peso, already the world's weakest currency this year, according to Bank of America Corp. strategists.
The official exchange rate will weaken to 545 per dollar by the end of this year and then drop to 1,193 by the end of 2024 as the bank's strategists expect the winner of the country's presidential election to further devalue the peso starting in December.
The current government this week devalued the currency by 18% to 350 after losing a crucial primary election on Sunday. Argentine assets fell after a stronger-than-expected performance by libertarian candidate Javier Milei, who wants to shift the economy to the dollar and abolish the central bank.
And yet Bank of America strategists called the devaluation "overall positive," and noted that it is favorable that the current government is shouldering some of the burden of the necessary macroeconomic adjustment.
“It should be favorable for the IMF agreement that is pending IMF Board approval for a $7.5 billion loan disbursement,” they wrote. However, devaluation will further contribute to inflation, which is one of the main issues the country is trying to combat.
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The worst is yet to come for the Argentine peso, already the world's weakest currency this year, according to Bank of America Corp. strategists.
The official exchange rate will weaken to 545 per dollar by the end of this year and then drop to 1,193 by the end of 2024 as the bank's strategists expect the winner of the country's presidential election to further devalue the peso starting in December.
The current government this week devalued the currency by 18% to 350 after losing a crucial primary election on Sunday. Argentine assets fell after a stronger-than-expected performance by libertarian candidate Javier Milei, who wants to shift the economy to the dollar and abolish the central bank.
And yet Bank of America strategists called the devaluation "overall positive," and noted that it is favorable that the current government is shouldering some of the burden of the necessary macroeconomic adjustment.
“It should be favorable for the IMF agreement that is pending IMF Board approval for a $7.5 billion loan disbursement,” they wrote. However, devaluation will further contribute to inflation, which is one of the main issues the country is trying to combat.
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Coinbase to sell crypto futures in the US
Coinbase Global Inc. has been authorized to directly sell cryptocurrency derivatives to retail consumers in the US. According to a company spokesperson, the offering will be launched within a few weeks.
Coinbase has been working to push derivatives for some time. It applied for National Futures Association (NFA) authorization almost two years ago.
In early 2022, it bought the FairX futures exchange, which was already registered with US regulators. Renamed Coinbase Derivatives Exchange, it currently directs traders to buy futures from third parties such as brokers.
But once it receives NFA authorization, Coinbase will be able to provide these same derivatives to users directly, initially through the main Coinbase app.
The company has recently introduced derivatives overseas. In May, it announced the launch of Coinbase International Exchange, which allows institutional users located in eligible jurisdictions outside the US to trade perpetual futures. According to the website, trading volume on the international exchange totaled $2.52 billion over the past 30 days.
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Coinbase Global Inc. has been authorized to directly sell cryptocurrency derivatives to retail consumers in the US. According to a company spokesperson, the offering will be launched within a few weeks.
Coinbase has been working to push derivatives for some time. It applied for National Futures Association (NFA) authorization almost two years ago.
In early 2022, it bought the FairX futures exchange, which was already registered with US regulators. Renamed Coinbase Derivatives Exchange, it currently directs traders to buy futures from third parties such as brokers.
But once it receives NFA authorization, Coinbase will be able to provide these same derivatives to users directly, initially through the main Coinbase app.
The company has recently introduced derivatives overseas. In May, it announced the launch of Coinbase International Exchange, which allows institutional users located in eligible jurisdictions outside the US to trade perpetual futures. According to the website, trading volume on the international exchange totaled $2.52 billion over the past 30 days.
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Bank of Ireland glitch allowed overdrawn withdrawals
🤑 Now, it’s time for truly fascinating stories
Bank of Ireland’s "technical issue" allowed transfers and withdrawals beyond customer limits and made online banking unavailable, the Guardian reported. The bank's ATMs have started dispensing €1,000 to all customers with a zero balance.
🔻Customers found out about the glitch through word of mouth and social media, and queues lined up outside ATMs for the free money.
🔻Some bank offices were even taken into police custody in Dublin, Limerick, and Dundalk.
🔻Bank of Ireland has warned customers that attempted withdrawals during the error will be recorded, and the amount will be deducted from their accounts, even if it results in a negative balance.
🔻Police have reminded Irish citizens of their personal responsibility for banking transactions.
A system error also affected the bank's online application. The bug allowed up to €500 to be transferred to a Revolut Bank account from Bank of Ireland accounts with a zero balance.
The frenzy lasted for a day, and the next day Bank of Ireland fixed all the bugs and temporarily disabled some services to prevent customers from spending other people's money.
🤓 If it were your bank, what would you do?
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Bank of Ireland’s "technical issue" allowed transfers and withdrawals beyond customer limits and made online banking unavailable, the Guardian reported. The bank's ATMs have started dispensing €1,000 to all customers with a zero balance.
🔻Customers found out about the glitch through word of mouth and social media, and queues lined up outside ATMs for the free money.
🔻Some bank offices were even taken into police custody in Dublin, Limerick, and Dundalk.
🔻Bank of Ireland has warned customers that attempted withdrawals during the error will be recorded, and the amount will be deducted from their accounts, even if it results in a negative balance.
🔻Police have reminded Irish citizens of their personal responsibility for banking transactions.
A system error also affected the bank's online application. The bug allowed up to €500 to be transferred to a Revolut Bank account from Bank of Ireland accounts with a zero balance.
The frenzy lasted for a day, and the next day Bank of Ireland fixed all the bugs and temporarily disabled some services to prevent customers from spending other people's money.
🤓 If it were your bank, what would you do?
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🌾 India mulls discounted wheat imports from Russia
India is negotiating with Russia to import wheat at a discount in response to rising world prices, a rare move aimed at boosting supplies and curbing food inflation.
"The government is exploring the possibility of imports through private trade and government-to-government deals. The decision will be made cautiously," one of the sources said when asked about wheat imports from Russia.
India has not imported wheat under diplomatic deals in several years. The last significant amount of wheat was imported in 2017 when private traders supplied 5.3 million metric tons.
Wheat stocks in government warehouses on August 1 were 28.3 million tons, 20% below the 10-year average.
So the government's plan to import Russian wheat is one of the measures being considered to bring down the prices of key commodities. It also includes expanding rural programs to cushion the impact of inflation on the poor.
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India is negotiating with Russia to import wheat at a discount in response to rising world prices, a rare move aimed at boosting supplies and curbing food inflation.
"The government is exploring the possibility of imports through private trade and government-to-government deals. The decision will be made cautiously," one of the sources said when asked about wheat imports from Russia.
India has not imported wheat under diplomatic deals in several years. The last significant amount of wheat was imported in 2017 when private traders supplied 5.3 million metric tons.
Wheat stocks in government warehouses on August 1 were 28.3 million tons, 20% below the 10-year average.
So the government's plan to import Russian wheat is one of the measures being considered to bring down the prices of key commodities. It also includes expanding rural programs to cushion the impact of inflation on the poor.
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🌚 Shiba Inu team’s L2 blockchain crashed right after mainnet launch
The Shiba Inu community launched the Shibarium core network, a Layer 2 solution for scaling Ethereum, on August 16 after months of testing that involved millions of users and the creation of 21 million wallets.
The new blockchain is designed to interoperate with the Ethereum network and should provide a scalable and cost-effective platform for transactions, a Shiba Inu spokesperson said.
But almost immediately after launch, the Shibarium network "crashed," with transactions hanging on hold and about $1.7 million in user funds now temporarily blocked.
Users were advised to refrain from transactions for the moment, and the SHIB rate fell 8%.
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The Shiba Inu community launched the Shibarium core network, a Layer 2 solution for scaling Ethereum, on August 16 after months of testing that involved millions of users and the creation of 21 million wallets.
The new blockchain is designed to interoperate with the Ethereum network and should provide a scalable and cost-effective platform for transactions, a Shiba Inu spokesperson said.
But almost immediately after launch, the Shibarium network "crashed," with transactions hanging on hold and about $1.7 million in user funds now temporarily blocked.
Users were advised to refrain from transactions for the moment, and the SHIB rate fell 8%.
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US stock market overheated - BofA analysts say
Bank of America analysts report that, according to all key metrics, the current value of S&P500 companies is higher than it should be, which is a sign of a major deep correction in companies values.
Earlier, Warren Buffett and Michael Burry also beted on a near-term decline in the US stock market.
Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway previously reported record earnings for the quarter, and showed the company's share of cash on hand totaled $147 billion. Such amount may be needed to start picking up falling assets at lower prices immediately, should they start to fall.
As for Michael Burry - he recently put a $1.5 billion short bet against the US economy, just like he did in 2008.
The Big Short 2?
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Bank of America analysts report that, according to all key metrics, the current value of S&P500 companies is higher than it should be, which is a sign of a major deep correction in companies values.
Earlier, Warren Buffett and Michael Burry also beted on a near-term decline in the US stock market.
Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway previously reported record earnings for the quarter, and showed the company's share of cash on hand totaled $147 billion. Such amount may be needed to start picking up falling assets at lower prices immediately, should they start to fall.
As for Michael Burry - he recently put a $1.5 billion short bet against the US economy, just like he did in 2008.
The Big Short 2?
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Africa's major bank hits record profits amid regional economic recovery
Standard Bank Group Ltd, Africa's largest bank by assets, reported record pretax profit in the first half of 2023.
Profit attributable to ordinary shareholders rose 36% to 21.9 billion rand ($1.1 billion) in the six months ended June, driven by revenue growth in Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, Nigeria, Uganda and Zimbabwe, the company said on Thursday.
Franchise headline earnings in African regions rose 65%, accounting for 44% of the group's total earnings.
However, the bank faced challenges within its domestic market, South Africa. Inflation and interest rate pressures, along with slow reforms, poor service quality, frequent power outages, and logistical disruptions, continued to impact the bank's performance.
But even so, in Standard Bank's home market headline earnings also rose 17%.
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Standard Bank Group Ltd, Africa's largest bank by assets, reported record pretax profit in the first half of 2023.
Profit attributable to ordinary shareholders rose 36% to 21.9 billion rand ($1.1 billion) in the six months ended June, driven by revenue growth in Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, Nigeria, Uganda and Zimbabwe, the company said on Thursday.
Franchise headline earnings in African regions rose 65%, accounting for 44% of the group's total earnings.
However, the bank faced challenges within its domestic market, South Africa. Inflation and interest rate pressures, along with slow reforms, poor service quality, frequent power outages, and logistical disruptions, continued to impact the bank's performance.
But even so, in Standard Bank's home market headline earnings also rose 17%.
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Brazil imports Russian fuel like never before
According to energy analytics company Kpler Ltd., imports of Russian oil products will increase in August by 25% compared to July and will amount to about 235,000 barrels per day. This is well ahead of the US, which used to be Brazil's main fuel supplier.
Brazil began sharply ramping up purchases in February when the EU banned imports and, along with other G7 countries, imposed a price cap on Russian fuel.
“Getting discounted barrels is a financial boon” for Brazil, where the government is under constant pressure to reduce the cost of transportation fuel, said Victor Katona, lead analyst at Kpler.
“Brazil is the largest Latin American market, so Russian refiners are focused on supplies to the nation,” Katona said. “Even Brazilian companies admit that their buying of Russian diesel creates a competitive edge, so I’d expect it to continue going forward.”
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According to energy analytics company Kpler Ltd., imports of Russian oil products will increase in August by 25% compared to July and will amount to about 235,000 barrels per day. This is well ahead of the US, which used to be Brazil's main fuel supplier.
Brazil began sharply ramping up purchases in February when the EU banned imports and, along with other G7 countries, imposed a price cap on Russian fuel.
“Getting discounted barrels is a financial boon” for Brazil, where the government is under constant pressure to reduce the cost of transportation fuel, said Victor Katona, lead analyst at Kpler.
“Brazil is the largest Latin American market, so Russian refiners are focused on supplies to the nation,” Katona said. “Even Brazilian companies admit that their buying of Russian diesel creates a competitive edge, so I’d expect it to continue going forward.”
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Russia's new ways to rescue the ruble
After a key rate hike by Russia's central bank only temporarily strengthened the ruble, it became clear to officials that the measures taken were not enough.
So President Vladimir Putin held an extensive meeting on Wednesday to discuss how else to help the declining currency.
And, to all appearances, the meeting turned out to be productive, Vedomosti reported.
Apparently, some major exporters, in particular fertilizer producers, have not previously transferred all their foreign currency earnings to Russia due to complicated transfer procedures amid sanctions.
Instead, they simply took out loans for domestic operations and tax payments, which were very favorable due to the government's active support of the industry.
Therefore, the participants of the meeting agreed that now the companies would find ways and transfer the earnings to Russia, thus supporting the ruble exchange rate.
At the opening of trading on Thursday, it became clear that some companies have already managed to do this, as large currency sale transactions became clearly visible. The effect is expected to grow as more and more companies will be able to find ways to transfer large amounts of funds to the Russian jurisdiction.
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After a key rate hike by Russia's central bank only temporarily strengthened the ruble, it became clear to officials that the measures taken were not enough.
So President Vladimir Putin held an extensive meeting on Wednesday to discuss how else to help the declining currency.
And, to all appearances, the meeting turned out to be productive, Vedomosti reported.
Apparently, some major exporters, in particular fertilizer producers, have not previously transferred all their foreign currency earnings to Russia due to complicated transfer procedures amid sanctions.
Instead, they simply took out loans for domestic operations and tax payments, which were very favorable due to the government's active support of the industry.
Therefore, the participants of the meeting agreed that now the companies would find ways and transfer the earnings to Russia, thus supporting the ruble exchange rate.
At the opening of trading on Thursday, it became clear that some companies have already managed to do this, as large currency sale transactions became clearly visible. The effect is expected to grow as more and more companies will be able to find ways to transfer large amounts of funds to the Russian jurisdiction.
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Japan increased grain imports from Russia by 5680% in July 2023
Yeah, that’s not a typo, 5680%.
The data comes from trade statistics released by Japan's Ministry of Finance.
A few other key points:
▪️Exports of vehicles to Russia grew by 84%, while shipments of spare parts fell by 44.4%.
▪️In addition, exports of medical devices increased by 1123%.
▪️Overall, Japanese exports to Russia in July 2023 rose 25% to $347.85 million compared to the same period a year earlier, while imports fell 69.6% to $367.31 million.
So, sanctions aren't going to keep you fed, apparently
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Yeah, that’s not a typo, 5680%.
The data comes from trade statistics released by Japan's Ministry of Finance.
A few other key points:
▪️Exports of vehicles to Russia grew by 84%, while shipments of spare parts fell by 44.4%.
▪️In addition, exports of medical devices increased by 1123%.
▪️Overall, Japanese exports to Russia in July 2023 rose 25% to $347.85 million compared to the same period a year earlier, while imports fell 69.6% to $367.31 million.
So, sanctions aren't going to keep you fed, apparently
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China Evergrande Group has sought Chapter 15 bankruptcy protection in New York, court documents showed Thursday.
Chapter 15 bankruptcy protects the company's assets in the US while it restructures elsewhere. Evergrande's petition cites restructuring proceedings underway in Hong Kong and the Cayman Islands.
The once most valuable real estate company in the world kicked off China's real estate crisis in 2021 with a total debt of hundreds of billions of dollars.
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Bitcoin and Ethereum prices collapsed by nearly 8% and 10% within 5 minutes.
Bitcoin has dived below the $27,718 support level, meaning the flagship cryptocurrency risks being in free fall if the bulls don't come to the rescue.
The stability of the crypto market is once again under threat after long sideways trading as it faces a challenging week.
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Dutch economy officially enters recession
The Netherlands unexpectedly fell into its first recession since the pandemic due to a decline in consumer spending and exports.
GDP shrank by 0.3% in Q2 of 2023 compared to Q1 of the same year. The economic downturn was also observed in Q1, which means that the country is now officially in recession, according to data released by the Dutch Central Bureau of Statistics.
The Netherlands is currently having to contend with economic pain alongside political turmoil caused by the resignation of longtime Prime Minister Mark Rutte.
Behind the downturn in the first half of 2023 are labor shortages, weak demand from European trading partners, and a sharp rise in interest rates as the European Central Bank seeks to curb inflation.
"Stability and predictability are now needed, so we have to be careful not to disrupt the economy and also to increase taxes," Economic Affairs Minister Micky Adriaansens told the Dutch press agency ANP.
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The Netherlands unexpectedly fell into its first recession since the pandemic due to a decline in consumer spending and exports.
GDP shrank by 0.3% in Q2 of 2023 compared to Q1 of the same year. The economic downturn was also observed in Q1, which means that the country is now officially in recession, according to data released by the Dutch Central Bureau of Statistics.
The Netherlands is currently having to contend with economic pain alongside political turmoil caused by the resignation of longtime Prime Minister Mark Rutte.
Behind the downturn in the first half of 2023 are labor shortages, weak demand from European trading partners, and a sharp rise in interest rates as the European Central Bank seeks to curb inflation.
"Stability and predictability are now needed, so we have to be careful not to disrupt the economy and also to increase taxes," Economic Affairs Minister Micky Adriaansens told the Dutch press agency ANP.
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Global yields reach 15-year highs amid fears of a rate hikes
Global government bond yields continued their ascent - the US 30-year hit its highest level since 2011 and other benchmarks returned to 2008 levels - as resilient economic data refuted the view that central bank rates had peaked.
On Thursday, the five- and 10-year Treasury yields rose several basis points from their 2022 highs.
The 30-year bond yield has surged by seven basis points to reach 4.42%, significantly surpassing its recent trading levels.
The 10-year US bond yield climbed to 4.33%, up nearly eight basis points. The UK equivalent yield jumped to a 15-year high, while its German counterpart approached its highest level since 2011.
The Treasuries had led the global debt sell-off. And as the minutes of the Fed's latest meeting, released Wednesday, showed, officials remain concerned that inflation will not fall, necessitating further policy tightening.
“We do think there is a possibility that you get an additional Fed rate hike later this year to sort of make sure that there’s an insurance policy that inflation remains contained,” said Jerome Schneider, head of short-term portfolio management and financing at Pacific Investment Management Co, which has $1.8 trillion under management.
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Global government bond yields continued their ascent - the US 30-year hit its highest level since 2011 and other benchmarks returned to 2008 levels - as resilient economic data refuted the view that central bank rates had peaked.
On Thursday, the five- and 10-year Treasury yields rose several basis points from their 2022 highs.
The 30-year bond yield has surged by seven basis points to reach 4.42%, significantly surpassing its recent trading levels.
The 10-year US bond yield climbed to 4.33%, up nearly eight basis points. The UK equivalent yield jumped to a 15-year high, while its German counterpart approached its highest level since 2011.
The Treasuries had led the global debt sell-off. And as the minutes of the Fed's latest meeting, released Wednesday, showed, officials remain concerned that inflation will not fall, necessitating further policy tightening.
“We do think there is a possibility that you get an additional Fed rate hike later this year to sort of make sure that there’s an insurance policy that inflation remains contained,” said Jerome Schneider, head of short-term portfolio management and financing at Pacific Investment Management Co, which has $1.8 trillion under management.
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