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Multipolar Market
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Crypto, trade & finance news with a grain of humor

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Türkiye risks facing US retaliation while helping Russia

The ghost fleet of Turkish ships helps Russia to circumvent sanctions, as reported by the WSJ.

Turkish companies have bought dozens of tankers carrying Russian oil, thus allowing Moscow to trade successfully. This fleet now numbers hundreds of vessels around the world, many owned by companies in Greece, India, UAE, and Türkiye.

Many of them circumvent Western sanctions by operating outside normal industry standards, often refusing to insure with P&I Clubs, which are global networks that insure approximately 90% of the world's merchant shipping. Some use a parallel Russian insurance system that was created after the outbreak of the Ukrainian conflict.

And the US authorities are planning to take measures against Türkiye because of its actions, which Washington regards as helping Moscow bypass international sanctions, according to the WSJ, citing a source.

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X (Twitter) reportedly receives payment service license in Maryland

Elon Musk's social platform has obtained a money transmitter license for providing payment services in Maryland, US.

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Czech Republic takes a risk and buys Russian oil

The Czech Republic is buying 1.1 billion crowns (about 52 million dollars) worth of oil for emergency needs for reserve storage from the Cypriot company Normeston Trading, which, however, is linked to Russia, SZ reported.

According to Pavel Shvagr, head of the State Material Reserves Department, there was no other way, but it’s fine, since the company's owners are not on the EU sanctions list.

But the reporters discovered another problem. According to European Union sanctions rules, neither the supplier of such a large government order nor the subcontractor should represent the Russian Federation. However, the Cypriot company had committed to supply the Czech Republic with REBCO crude oil, which is produced only in Russia.

Under this contract, the Cypriot company will receive 52 million dollars from the Czech budget.

Violating international sanctions in the Czech Republic is a criminal offense that can result in a prison sentence of up to eight years. However, it is unclear at this point whether Czech security authorities undertake an investigation into the aforementioned matters.

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Multipolar Market
Germany risks becoming 'Sick Man of Europe' again Germany's economy – Europe's largest – is struggling to grow, suggesting the country, long seen as the region's motor of expansion is currently a brake on its outlook, Bloomberg reported. The International…
The sick man of Europe - now it’s out

British magazine The Economist wondered if Germany's economy is sick. The artwork is also impressive, we might add.

The symptoms, according to the magazine, are as follows:

▪️ Europe's largest economy has gone from growth leader to laggard - may be the only major economy to shrink in 2023. Germany will also grow slower than America, Britain, France, and Spain over the next five years, according to the IMF.

▪️ Germany has begun to be seen as an unsuitable place to live. Four out of five respondents felt this way.

▪️ Trains are now so badly delayed that Switzerland has banned latecomers from entering its territory. Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, who was stranded abroad for the second time this summer due to a malfunction of her outdated service plane, canceled a trip to Australia.

▪️ Bureaucracy flourishes - obtaining a license to operate a business takes 120 days - twice as long as the OECD average.

▪️ The industry is no longer a cash cow, the auto industry is already losing to China.

▪️ The country has huge problems with energy - there are no nuclear power plants, cheap gas from Russia has been abandoned, and the industry is very energy-intensive.

▪️ The population is aging, the shortage of teachers has become chronic, and getting a visa is easier for refugees than for professionals.


The magazine recalls that in 1999, Germany was in a bad shape too. Yet a series of reforms in the early 2000s ushered in a golden age.

What it doesn't mention is that Gerhard Schröder, the man who would later call Vladimir Putin his friend, was in charge at the time. His reforms led to impressive results not without the help of cheap Russian resources.

How r u doin herr Kanzler?

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😁 Domestic company worth more than GDP of an EU state

The popularity of weight-loss drugs among Americans has helped Danish company Novo Nordisk, which makes them, grow its market value to $413 billion, more than its home country's GDP of about $406 billion.

And according to the Wall Street Journal, this phenomenon is taking its toll on Denmark's economy. It manifests itself in the form of lower interest rates and a stronger currency, the report said.

The sales of these drugs in the US have driven Novo Nordisk's market value to become the second most valuable company in Europe after luxury goods maker LVMH.

The weight-loss drug is expected to generate sales of about $6 billion, with FactSet analysts predicting that figure to grow to $15 billion a year in 2027.

According to the WSJ, the large influx of currency has caused the Danish krone to strengthen against the euro.

The Danish central bank is therefore forced to keep interest rates lower than those set by the European Central Bank to prevent the currency from strengthening too much.

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Texas power prices surge 6000%

Spot electricity prices in Texas rose more than 60 fold, approaching the $5,000 limit, as the state's power grid is facing the tightest power supply conditions all summer.

The intense heat continues to scorch Texas, causing demand for electricity to skyrocket and homes and businesses to turn on their air conditioners.

Despite the fact that electricity consumption has reached record highs about a dozen times since the beginning of June, the Texas power grid has for the most part shown no signs of operational stress yet.

The main reason for this is the increase in solar generation capacity compared to last summer, and evening increases in wind generation often offset daytime declines in solar generation.

The most stressful conditions on the grid often occur after sunset, when electricity demand is still high and solar power is off.

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Multipolar Market
🇲🇦 Morocco applies to join BRICS The statement was made by South African Foreign Minister Naledi Pandor during a press conference on the latest preparations for the 15th BRICS Summit to be held in South Africa from August 22 to 24. The summit is likely to…
Morocco denies plans to join BRICS due to tense relations with South Africa

Morocco denied media reports on Saturday that the country was considering attending the BRICS summit in South Africa and possibly joining the club of emerging economies, citing strained relations with the hosting country.

"Morocco… ruled out, from the outset, any favorable reaction to the South African invitation," a Moroccan Foreign Ministry official said in a statement.

The official reaffirmed the North African nation's commitment to maintaining "substantial and promising bilateral relations" with Brazil, Russia, India and China but insisted that it "never formally applied for membership of the BRICS group."

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Iranian assets unfrozen, transferred to Switzerland

Iranian
assets that had been frozen in South Korea were transferred to Switzerland's central bank last week for exchange and transfer to Iran, South Korean media reported on Monday.

The Swiss National Bank plans to exchange its $6 billion holdings in won into dollars and then into euros on the foreign exchange market, Yonhap Infomax reported, citing an unnamed source in the currency market.

A South Korean finance ministry spokesman declined to confirm the report, citing the legal and diplomatic sensitivity of the issue.

Iran and the United States recently reached an agreement under which five US citizens detained in Iran will be released and Iranian assets in South Korea will be unfrozen and sent to an account in Qatar that Iran can access.

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi said last week that the released assets would be used to boost domestic production.

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EU's gas prices soar amid possible strike in Australia

European natural gas prices have jumped as workers maintaining a key export project in Australia prepare for a strike over pay and conditions that could significantly reduce global supplies as winter approaches.

Disruptions in Australia could affect 10% of global liquefied natural gas exports, while the continent is still recovering from last year's energy crisis, when reduced supplies from Russia made it very vulnerable to changes in a tight global market.

Labor unions warned over the weekend that a strike could begin as early as September 2 unless a pay agreement is reached with the plant operator, leading benchmark gas futures to soar 18% on Monday.

According to Saul Kavonik, an energy analyst at Credit Suisse Group AG, there is still a chance for the dispute to be settled, as the participants are likely to realize the seriousness of the possible consequences.

A previous dispute affecting Shell Plc's Prelude facility in Australia a year ago lasted 76 days, with unions estimating production losses of $1 billion.

"Everyone involved has learned the lessons from Prelude last year and doesn’t want to see that repeated," Kavonik said.

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Global oil demand hits a record high

Global oil demand
reaches an all time high, driven by heavy summer air travel, increased use of oil in power generation, and growing petrochemical activity in China, the International Energy Agency (IEA) says.

Global oil demand is expected to increase by 2.2 million barrels per day (mb/d) to 102.2 mb/d in 2023, with China accounting for more than 70% of the growth.

However, as the post-pandemic rebound has exhausted itself and volatile economic conditions, tightening efficiency standards, and the emergence of new electric vehicles negatively impact consumption, growth is forecasted to slow to 1 mb/d in 2024.

Global oil supply plunged by 910 kb/d to 100.9 mb/d in July. A sharp reduction in Saudi production in July saw output from the OPEC+ bloc fall 1.2 mb/d to 50.7 mb/d, while non-OPEC+ volumes rose 310 kb/d to 50.2 mb/d.

OPEC+ is now producing as much oil per day as it did in 2009, but global demand has grown by 20% since then.

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EU sets new record for company bankruptcies

The number of company bankruptcies in EU countries in the Q2 of 2023 has reached the highest level since 2015, when they started collecting data, Yeni Şafak reported, citing Eurostat.

The largest number of bankruptcies was filed by companies in accommodation and catering services - 23.9%, transportation and storage - 15.2%, education, health care and social security - 10.1%.

The countries with the highest increase in the number of bankruptcy filings compared to the previous quarter were Hungary (40.8%), Latvia (24.8%), Estonia (24.6%).

Overall, the number of bankrupt companies in the EU countries has been growing over the last six quarters.

At the same time, the number of new companies in the second quarter of the year decreased by 0.6% compared to the Q1.

The increase in bankruptcies across the EU is due the energy crisis in Europe and the high cost of living caused by rising inflation and, above all, higher food prices.

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🤡 Lower birth rates are good - Oxford professor Sarah Harper

Britain’s top demography expert has said a fall in the number of newborns in the UK is "good news" after new figures showed the number of babies has hit a 20-year low.

Prof Harper told the Telegraph: “I think it’s a good thing that the high-income, high-consuming countries of the world are reducing the number of children that they’re having. I’m quite positive about that.”

The academic said declining fertility in rich countries would help to address the “general overconsumption that we have at the moment”, which has a negative impact on the planet.

Prof Harper served on the Prime Minister’s Council for Science and Technology between 2014 and 2017. She was awarded a CBE for services to demography in 2018.

“We will see smaller populations in high-income countries going forward. It’s just going to be a trend of the 21st century and that will actually be good for general overall overconsumption that we have at the moment and our planet,” she concluded.

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🌏 Over 60 countries: what to expect from the upcoming BRICS summit

Leaders of the BRICS Five countries and partners of the organization will gather for a summit in Johannesburg on August 22. The meetings will last three days, until August 24.

According to a South African diplomatic source, more than 60 states have been invited to participate in the discussions, including African countries and countries that have applied to join the association.

The program of the meetings has not been officially presented yet, but earlier it was stated that the central topics of the summit will be the criteria for potential BRICS expansion, as well as the strengthening of local currencies within the bloc and the development of a common payment system.

Russia will be represented at the summit by Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov (he will attend the meeting in person) and President Vladimir Putin, who will participate in the summit via videoconference. Brazil will be represented by President Lula da Silva, India by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and China will be represented by its leader Xi Jinping. The President of South Africa, Cyril Ramaphosa, will serve as Chairperson.

The UN delegation has also confirmed its participation.

"UN Secretary General Guterres has gladly accepted the invitation to the BRICS summit in South Africa" - spokesman Dujarric said. "He intends to use his participation to deliver a number of important messages," he added.

Meanwhile, French leader Emmanuel Macron, who has repeatedly expressed his desire to join the forum, did not receive an invitation.

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Germany celebrates: disinflation emerging

German producer prices
fell more than expected on a year-on-year basis in July, marking the first decline in two and a half years. This decline is attributed to easing pressure on energy prices, igniting hopes for a further drop in inflation in Europe's largest economy.

According to the federal statistics office, producer prices witnessed a 6% decrease in July compared to the same month the previous year.

This is the first annualized decline in producer prices since November 2020 and the sharpest drop observed since October 2009, which was during the financial crisis.

Energy prices experienced a significant decline of 19.3% year-over-year in July, primarily due to a notable drop in electricity prices. Specifically, electricity prices plummeted by 30.0% across all consumer groups.

Excluding energy prices, producer prices increased by 2.0% when compared to the same month the previous year.

Germany's producer price index, a vital metric for measuring the change in prices of goods sold by manufacturers, is regarded as a significant indicator of inflation. In July, inflation in the country fell to 6.5%.

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😁 Some Goldman Sachs clients aren't rich enough

Goldman Sachs
is considering selling part of its wealth business, the company said Monday, as it shifts its focus back to serving ultra-wealthy clients and away from serving mass-market affluent clients.

The Wall Street bank is evaluating alternatives for its registered investment adviser (RIA) unit, called Personal Financial Management (PFM), which manages about $29 billion, it said in a statement.

"This is part of the overall restructuring of the firm, back toward its roots," said Stephen Biggar, an analyst at Argus Research.

Goldman's private wealth arm oversees $1 trillion in assets for ultra-high net worth clients.

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Türkiye rolls back costly KKM deposits

Türkiye's
central bank on Sunday began rolling back a growing and costly scheme meant to protect lira deposits from depreciation, known as KKM, in another move towards a more orthodox policy after a shift to higher interest rates.

The regulator stopped targeting conversion from foreign currency deposits to KKM lira deposits and said that banks should encourage the transition from KKM accounts to regular lira accounts, in part by dissuading companies and individuals from renewing the KKM accounts.

Turkish bank stocks plunged immediately afterward, and the lira's exchange rate against the dollar hit a record low on Monday.

Since 2021, KKM accounts have increased to about a quarter of total bank deposits, largely driven by the lira's depreciation by about 68% over the past two years.

To cover the cost of depreciating KKM, the central bank paid about 300 billion lira (more than $11 billion) in June and July when the lira fell again. This month's costs were estimated at 350 billion liras (about $13 billion).

The central bank also raised lenders' reserve requirement ratios for foreign currency deposits, which should further encourage customers to switch to regular lira accounts.

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🇮🇳 India to ban rare metals exports

The Indian government is considering imposing an export ban on lithium, beryllium, niobium and tantalum as a strategic move aimed at ensuring the country's self-sufficiency in essential minerals, Business Standard reported.

These metals are vital to India's defense, aerospace and engineering industries.

“The government is planning to introduce a ban on the export of these minerals because of their importance in powering sectors critical to national security and technological advancements,” a senior official said.

As of 2022, China accounted for 70% of global rare metals exports, United States Geological Survey (USGS) data shows. Therefore, with other actors withdrawing from this market, its role as a critical supplier will increase further.

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🏦 US banks took yet another hit

S&P Global
followed Moody's on Monday in lowering the credit ratings and outlook of several US regional banks, saying that rising funding costs and problems in the commercial real estate sector are likely to test the lenders' credit strength.

S&P cut its ratings on Associated Banc-Corp and Valley National Bancorp due to funding risks and higher reliance on brokered deposits, while UMB Financial Corp, Comerica Bank, and KeyCorp were downgraded due to large deposit outflows and prevailing higher interest rates.

KeyCorp and Comerica shares were down nearly 1% each in premarket trading.

The outlook on S&T Bank and River City Bank was downgraded to "negative" from "stable" by S&P due to higher exposure to credit risk.

The agency's action will make borrowing more expensive for a weakened banking sector that is struggling to shake off the fallout from the crisis earlier this year when the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank caused a loss of confidence and led to a run on deposits at several regional lenders.

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Multipolar Market
🔥 RUSSIA IS EUROPE'S FIRST ECONOMY Russia became one of the five largest economies in the world and the first economy in Europe - World Bank Group data. The World Bank has updated its estimate of the GDP of the world's countries at the end of 2022. According…
🇷🇺 Putin said Russia has become one of the world's top five largest economies, surpassing Germany

When you read old posts on our channel.

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Norway's economy halts after a year of growth

Norway's
economy unexpectedly stagnated after a year of growth, facing weakening consumption and showing that the fossil-fuel-rich country has also felt the blow of higher inflation and rising borrowing costs.

The mainland's GDP, which excludes Norway's offshore industry, remained unchanged from the previous three months when it grew by 0.2%, the statistics office said on Tuesday.

The Nordic country has been more resilient to the effects of declining purchasing power and increasing borrowing costs compared to most of its regional counterparts.

However, analysts say the stagnation aligns with Norges Bank's forecasts and will not prevent an anticipated key rate hike to 4.25% next month.

The krone, ranked second among the G-10 countries' major currencies this year, rose slightly after the report and was trading 0.2% higher as of 9:48 a.m. in Oslo.

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Forwarded from Geopolitics Prime
Media is too big
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🗣️ On the future of the BRICS+:

In terms of the BRICS+ economic agenda, Iran is already part of it because they are part of the international North-South Transportation Corridor, where the main, the three main actors are Russia, Iran and India, which happen to be three members of the SCO, and if Iran gets into BRICS - three BRICS members. So you see how naturally these interpolations and interactions are converging,Pepe Escobar, a geopolitical analyst and writer, told Sputnik.

🎧 Listen to more of Escobar’s analysis in our podcast New Rules

👉 Watch the full episode of our show on YouTube or Rumble
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