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Multipolar Market
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Crypto, trade & finance news with a grain of humor

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🤡 Lower birth rates are good - Oxford professor Sarah Harper

Britain’s top demography expert has said a fall in the number of newborns in the UK is "good news" after new figures showed the number of babies has hit a 20-year low.

Prof Harper told the Telegraph: “I think it’s a good thing that the high-income, high-consuming countries of the world are reducing the number of children that they’re having. I’m quite positive about that.”

The academic said declining fertility in rich countries would help to address the “general overconsumption that we have at the moment”, which has a negative impact on the planet.

Prof Harper served on the Prime Minister’s Council for Science and Technology between 2014 and 2017. She was awarded a CBE for services to demography in 2018.

“We will see smaller populations in high-income countries going forward. It’s just going to be a trend of the 21st century and that will actually be good for general overall overconsumption that we have at the moment and our planet,” she concluded.

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🌏 Over 60 countries: what to expect from the upcoming BRICS summit

Leaders of the BRICS Five countries and partners of the organization will gather for a summit in Johannesburg on August 22. The meetings will last three days, until August 24.

According to a South African diplomatic source, more than 60 states have been invited to participate in the discussions, including African countries and countries that have applied to join the association.

The program of the meetings has not been officially presented yet, but earlier it was stated that the central topics of the summit will be the criteria for potential BRICS expansion, as well as the strengthening of local currencies within the bloc and the development of a common payment system.

Russia will be represented at the summit by Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov (he will attend the meeting in person) and President Vladimir Putin, who will participate in the summit via videoconference. Brazil will be represented by President Lula da Silva, India by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and China will be represented by its leader Xi Jinping. The President of South Africa, Cyril Ramaphosa, will serve as Chairperson.

The UN delegation has also confirmed its participation.

"UN Secretary General Guterres has gladly accepted the invitation to the BRICS summit in South Africa" - spokesman Dujarric said. "He intends to use his participation to deliver a number of important messages," he added.

Meanwhile, French leader Emmanuel Macron, who has repeatedly expressed his desire to join the forum, did not receive an invitation.

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Germany celebrates: disinflation emerging

German producer prices
fell more than expected on a year-on-year basis in July, marking the first decline in two and a half years. This decline is attributed to easing pressure on energy prices, igniting hopes for a further drop in inflation in Europe's largest economy.

According to the federal statistics office, producer prices witnessed a 6% decrease in July compared to the same month the previous year.

This is the first annualized decline in producer prices since November 2020 and the sharpest drop observed since October 2009, which was during the financial crisis.

Energy prices experienced a significant decline of 19.3% year-over-year in July, primarily due to a notable drop in electricity prices. Specifically, electricity prices plummeted by 30.0% across all consumer groups.

Excluding energy prices, producer prices increased by 2.0% when compared to the same month the previous year.

Germany's producer price index, a vital metric for measuring the change in prices of goods sold by manufacturers, is regarded as a significant indicator of inflation. In July, inflation in the country fell to 6.5%.

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😁 Some Goldman Sachs clients aren't rich enough

Goldman Sachs
is considering selling part of its wealth business, the company said Monday, as it shifts its focus back to serving ultra-wealthy clients and away from serving mass-market affluent clients.

The Wall Street bank is evaluating alternatives for its registered investment adviser (RIA) unit, called Personal Financial Management (PFM), which manages about $29 billion, it said in a statement.

"This is part of the overall restructuring of the firm, back toward its roots," said Stephen Biggar, an analyst at Argus Research.

Goldman's private wealth arm oversees $1 trillion in assets for ultra-high net worth clients.

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Türkiye rolls back costly KKM deposits

Türkiye's
central bank on Sunday began rolling back a growing and costly scheme meant to protect lira deposits from depreciation, known as KKM, in another move towards a more orthodox policy after a shift to higher interest rates.

The regulator stopped targeting conversion from foreign currency deposits to KKM lira deposits and said that banks should encourage the transition from KKM accounts to regular lira accounts, in part by dissuading companies and individuals from renewing the KKM accounts.

Turkish bank stocks plunged immediately afterward, and the lira's exchange rate against the dollar hit a record low on Monday.

Since 2021, KKM accounts have increased to about a quarter of total bank deposits, largely driven by the lira's depreciation by about 68% over the past two years.

To cover the cost of depreciating KKM, the central bank paid about 300 billion lira (more than $11 billion) in June and July when the lira fell again. This month's costs were estimated at 350 billion liras (about $13 billion).

The central bank also raised lenders' reserve requirement ratios for foreign currency deposits, which should further encourage customers to switch to regular lira accounts.

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🇮🇳 India to ban rare metals exports

The Indian government is considering imposing an export ban on lithium, beryllium, niobium and tantalum as a strategic move aimed at ensuring the country's self-sufficiency in essential minerals, Business Standard reported.

These metals are vital to India's defense, aerospace and engineering industries.

“The government is planning to introduce a ban on the export of these minerals because of their importance in powering sectors critical to national security and technological advancements,” a senior official said.

As of 2022, China accounted for 70% of global rare metals exports, United States Geological Survey (USGS) data shows. Therefore, with other actors withdrawing from this market, its role as a critical supplier will increase further.

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🏦 US banks took yet another hit

S&P Global
followed Moody's on Monday in lowering the credit ratings and outlook of several US regional banks, saying that rising funding costs and problems in the commercial real estate sector are likely to test the lenders' credit strength.

S&P cut its ratings on Associated Banc-Corp and Valley National Bancorp due to funding risks and higher reliance on brokered deposits, while UMB Financial Corp, Comerica Bank, and KeyCorp were downgraded due to large deposit outflows and prevailing higher interest rates.

KeyCorp and Comerica shares were down nearly 1% each in premarket trading.

The outlook on S&T Bank and River City Bank was downgraded to "negative" from "stable" by S&P due to higher exposure to credit risk.

The agency's action will make borrowing more expensive for a weakened banking sector that is struggling to shake off the fallout from the crisis earlier this year when the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank caused a loss of confidence and led to a run on deposits at several regional lenders.

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Multipolar Market
🔥 RUSSIA IS EUROPE'S FIRST ECONOMY Russia became one of the five largest economies in the world and the first economy in Europe - World Bank Group data. The World Bank has updated its estimate of the GDP of the world's countries at the end of 2022. According…
🇷🇺 Putin said Russia has become one of the world's top five largest economies, surpassing Germany

When you read old posts on our channel.

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Norway's economy halts after a year of growth

Norway's
economy unexpectedly stagnated after a year of growth, facing weakening consumption and showing that the fossil-fuel-rich country has also felt the blow of higher inflation and rising borrowing costs.

The mainland's GDP, which excludes Norway's offshore industry, remained unchanged from the previous three months when it grew by 0.2%, the statistics office said on Tuesday.

The Nordic country has been more resilient to the effects of declining purchasing power and increasing borrowing costs compared to most of its regional counterparts.

However, analysts say the stagnation aligns with Norges Bank's forecasts and will not prevent an anticipated key rate hike to 4.25% next month.

The krone, ranked second among the G-10 countries' major currencies this year, rose slightly after the report and was trading 0.2% higher as of 9:48 a.m. in Oslo.

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Forwarded from Geopolitics Prime
Media is too big
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🗣️ On the future of the BRICS+:

In terms of the BRICS+ economic agenda, Iran is already part of it because they are part of the international North-South Transportation Corridor, where the main, the three main actors are Russia, Iran and India, which happen to be three members of the SCO, and if Iran gets into BRICS - three BRICS members. So you see how naturally these interpolations and interactions are converging,Pepe Escobar, a geopolitical analyst and writer, told Sputnik.

🎧 Listen to more of Escobar’s analysis in our podcast New Rules

👉 Watch the full episode of our show on YouTube or Rumble
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Taiwan banished from Central America

The Central American parliament voted on Monday to remove Taiwan from permanent observer status after more than two decades and replace it with China.

The six-nation parliament, known as Parlacen, convened in the Nicaraguan capital, Managua, where local legislators proposed adding China.

Beijing is expanding its influence in Central America. Parlacen members Nicaragua, El Salvador, Honduras, Panama, and the Dominican Republic have severed diplomatic relations with Taiwan in recent years.

Guatemala, Central America's most populous country, is the only Parlacen member that still recognizes Taiwan.

Taiwan's Foreign Ministry said that in the interest of upholding "national dignity," a decision has been made to leave Parlacen immediately.

Meanwhile, Parlacen cited in a statement the United Nations' 1971 expulsion of Taiwan in favor of China. They stated that this deems Taiwan to be a "province of mainland China, which disqualifies it from participating as an independent country".

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Diesel shortage threatens the world

At any other time in history, the current state of the global diesel market would have sent some countries into a state of panic.

Globally, the price of the fuel is exorbitantly high relative to the price of the oil it is produced from, signaling a shortage that should alarm inflation-obsessed governments everywhere.

And in just a few months, winter will arrive in the Northern Hemisphere, driving up demand for heating.

Today's dwindling stocks mean that the world can't afford any sudden surprises: a supply constraint could occur at any time.

“We should be building stocks now as they usually begin drawing seasonally from September,” said Eugene Lindell, head of petroleum products at FGE. “There is a worry that stocks will not build sufficiently before October, and we will then start seeing draws from what threatens to be a low base.”

Retail diesel prices in the US have consistently risen since late July, to the point where they contributed more to inflation than gasoline in August.

Meanwhile, beginning in September, the Irving refinery in Eastern Canada, the main oil supplier to the northeastern US, will undergo extensive maintenance for seven weeks. As a result, the region will rely on marine supplies from distant lands, as it will be inaccessible via pipelines.

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The BRICS Summit: addresses

The first day of the BRICS summit, attended by representatives of more than 60 countries, ended in Johannesburg.

We will dedicate several posts over the next 3 days to the events at the summit, and start with the key points that the leaders of the bloc's member states made in their addresses.

🏦 The New Development Bank to bring reforms to global financial institutions and has already demonstrated success

🌍 There is a need to attract investment in Africa not only to export commodities but also to develop sales of finished products

🇷🇺 Russia plans to modernize industry, improve logistics, and enhance citizen welfare despite facing sanctions

💲 De-dollarization has been labeled as an irreversible process

🚢 The redirection of trade from the West through the Northern Sea Route and North-South transport routes was emphasized by Vladimir Putin

🌾 The disruption of the grain deal was blamed on the failure of Western countries, and Moscow is open to returning to the agreement if promises are fulfilled

🇨🇳 China is willing to cooperate with all parties for sustainable economic development and universal security

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🏎 Vietnamese electric car maker worth more than Ford or VW

One of Vietnam's largest automakers has caused a sensation on Wall Street by raising its market capitalization higher than industry giants such as Volkswagen and Ford.

VinFast, which makes electric cars, made its debut in New York on Tuesday after merging with special purpose (SPAC) Black Spade Acquisition Co.

Shares of the newly combined company soared 270% on the Nasdaq exchange on their first day of trading. They opened at $22, more than double the original price of $10, and closed at $37.

The surge brought VinFast's market value to more than $85 billion. That's more than Volkswagen and Ford, which are valued at €63.9 billion ($69.7 billion) and $48 billion, respectively, according to Refinitiv.

However, such an impressive rally was based on thin trading. VinFast is still 99% owned by Vietnam's richest man Pham Nhat Vuong through shares owned by his other company Vingroup and other commercial entities, according to regulatory filings.

Buy yourself a Vietnam flashback

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UN says UK should pay for slave trade

UN
International Court of Justice Judge Patrick Robinson told The Guardian that UK should pay $24 trillion to the Caribbean for the slave trade.

A leading international court judge has said that the UK will no longer be able to ignore growing demands for reparations.

This follows the key role that Robinson played in writing the Brattle Group Report on Reparations for Transatlantic Chattel Slavery, which was published in June. It concludes that the UK alone is required to pay a sum of $24tn as reparations for transatlantic slavery in 14 countries. Of that sum, about $9.6tn is due to Jamaica.

Judge Patrick Robinson, who presided over the trial of former Yugoslav President Slobodan Milošević, said that the international trend on slavery reparations is changing rapidly and called on the UK to change its current position on the issue.

“They cannot continue to ignore the greatest atrocity, signifying man’s inhumanity to man. They cannot continue to ignore it. Reparations have been paid for other wrongs and obviously far more quickly, far more speedily than reparations for what I consider the greatest atrocity and crime in the history of mankind: transatlantic chattel slavery,” Robinson said.

“I believe that the United Kingdom will not be able to resist this movement towards the payment of reparations: it is required by history and it is required by law.”

In April, the UK prime minister, Rishi Sunakrefused to apologise for the UK’s role in the slave trade or to commit to paying reparations.

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The BRICS Summit: the New Development Bank

The BRICS New Development Bank (NDB) intends to start lending in South African and Brazilian currencies to reduce dependence on the US dollar. This was announced by the head of the bank Dilma Rousseff in an interview with the Financial Times.

The NDB may start lending in South African rand, Brazilian real and, in the long term, possibly Indian rupees. The bank is already lending in Chinese yuan.

And unlike the IMF and the World Bank, the BRICS will not impose political conditions on borrowers.

It was also mentioned that it is too early to talk about a common BRICS currency. What is being discussed is broader financial inclusiveness in terms of global transactions.

At the same time, not only the BRICS, but also the Global South in general, believes that trade should be conducted in local currencies: dependence on one or two world currencies is only harmful.

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🇨🇳 China to have a secret network for chips, trade group warns

The leading association of global chip companies is warning that Huawei Technologies Co. is setting up a series of secret semiconductor factories in China, a shadow manufacturing network that will allow it to circumvent US sanctions and expand the country's technology ambitions.

Huawei, the telecommunications equipment maker at the center of tensions between the US and China, shifted into chip manufacturing last year and is receiving about $30 billion in public funding from the government and its home city of Shenzhen, according to the Washington-based Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA).

It has acquired at least two existing plants and is building at least three more, the association said.

The SIA presentation has caused alarm among member companies and the Biden administration since its publication. The US is considering imposing stricter export controls on China.

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🇮🇷 Iran to increase oil production amid warming US relations

Iran
plans to continue ramping up oil production as diplomatic efforts with the US appear to be easing pressure on the Middle Eastern nation.

According to Oil Minister Javad Owji, the Islamic Republic expects to increase production to 3.4 million barrels per day by the end of summer. This will bring Iran's production close to its production cap of 3.8 million barrels per day. The country has already increased production by about 50% over the past two years.

Owji's remarks came amid diplomatic efforts between the US and Iran. The two countries recently reached agreements under which captured Americans will be released and some frozen funds of the Islamic Republic will be transferred.

Further negotiations could enable Iran to increase its oil exports. The country shipped 2.2 million barrels of oil and condensate per day in the first 20 days of August, according to TankerTrackers.сom Inc. which provides data on oil cargo shipments, and the monthly export volume could be the highest this year.

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⚡️⚡️ Plane crashed over Russia, Yevgeny Prigozhin was reportedly on board

An Embraer 600 business jet with flight number RA-02795, which belonged to Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the Wagner Group, crashed in the Tver region, Russia on Wednesday.

The plane was flying from Moscow to St. Petersburg.

At least ten people died in the crash of the private plane, Yevgeny Prigozhin was among the passengers.

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Multipolar Market
⚡️⚡️ YEVGENY PRIGOZHIN REPORTEDLY DEAD Wagner PMC chief was out of contact after his plane crashed in the Tver region. Follow us on Telegram and Twitter
Dmitry "Wagner" Utkin was also aboard the crashed plane

According to unconfirmed information, Utkin and Prigozhin both died.

Yet it is still possible that Yevgeny Prigozhin could be on his other jet for conspiracy purposes, which reportedly turned back immediately after losing contact with the first one.

So far, all this information has not been officially confirmed.

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