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Multipolar Market
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Crypto, trade & finance news with a grain of humor

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Asia’s next step away from dollar

Vietnam
, the Philippines and Brunei will join other major Southeast Asian economies in an interconnected QR code payment system that aims to reduce reliance on the US dollar - Nikkei reported.

Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore have previously joined the same initiative.

Payments through the system will be made in local currency, meaning payments in Thailand using the Indonesian app will be directly exchanged into rupiahs and baht, bypassing the US dollar as an intermediary.

Next, the central banks will seek to link this network with other regional clusters around the world, and bring the same structure to real-time bank transfers and even central bank digital currencies eventually.

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Norway adds to the gas tensions

European gas
is getting more expensive as lower supplies from Norway increase supply risks.

Benchmark futures rose 4.1% on Monday after a nearly 9% jump late last week. Thus, gas flows from Europe's biggest supplier are at their lowest level since June 2022.

Norwegian grid operator Gassco also said that additional work had been carried out on fields supplying fuel to the Segal grid, which is connected to the UK. The duration of the capacity reduction following these works remains unclear.

Gas prices are up about 25% this month - despite high inventories and low demand.

As for Australia's possible strikes, unions will finalize a vote Monday on whether to approve a strike at an LNG plant operated by Chevron Corp.

Workers voted late last week to strike at two other Chevron plants, but the timing of the strike has not yet been determined.

Woodside Energy Group Ltd., another Australian exporter, reached an agreement with workers last week and avoided strikes, but it remains to be seen whether Chevron can do the same.

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Binance mulls 'full exit' from Russia

The world's largest crypto exchange Binance is considering a complete withdrawal from Russia due to ongoing sanctions, a spokesman for the company told the Wall Street Journal on Monday.

"All options are on the table, including a full exit," a Binance spokesperson said, commenting on the company's future in this country.

Binance has long been accused of allegedly helping Russian nationals to move money overseas.

As a result, Binance has been forced to further restrict its peer-to-peer (P2P) trading service in Russia from today, telling clients that they cannot exchange digital tokens for currency other than rubles.

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Argentina to raise wages against IMF demands

Argentina's
Economy Ministry has announced measures to increase the salaries of government employees and allocate funds to pensioners and low-income families. This move goes against the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) call to reduce the country's expenses.

Economy Minister Sergio Massa, who is also running for president, has outlined several measures including tax breaks, higher pension payments, increased funds for food programs targeting families with children, and low-interest credit lines. The plan also includes funding for export products, as stated in his social media post on Sunday.

The implementation of these new measures follows the victory of libertarian candidate Javier Milei in this month's primaries, which was unexpected for President Alberto Fernandez's "Union for the Homeland" coalition, of which Massa is a candidate. The coalition itself came in third place in the primaries.

Such costly measures could put the government in conflict with the IMF, since a condition of the aid to Fernandez’s government was that Argentina step up expenditure controls by limiting public wages and pensions.

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Russia's uranium trade is booming

Russia
supplied India with its first $13.5 million shipment of uranium for local nuclear power since 2019, according to an analysis of data from the Indian Ministry of Commerce and Industry, in June. The volume of the uranium shipment purchased by India amounted to 118 tons.

The last time Moscow supplied uranium to India was in 2019, when 1.77 thousand tons of the metal were exported for $101.6 million for the entire year.

This happens amid Bloomberg noted that Western countries are completely dependent on Russian uranium supplies. When it comes to atomic energy, Rosatom Corp. continues to be the dominant source of fuel for the world’s nuclear power stations — supplying about half of global demand for enriched uranium.

Thus, not only has Russia retained its previous uranium buyers, but it has also gained new ones.

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Eurozone money supply shrinks for first time in 13 years

The money supply within the Eurozone experienced a contraction, marking the initial occurrence since 2010. This decline was driven by a standstill in lending to the private sector and a reduction in deposits, which serves as an indication of an impending financial downturn, a concern previously highlighted by economists - FT.

Monitoring the impact of recent monetary tightening, the European Central Bank (ECB) keeps a close watch on the money supply as a key indicator.

As lending and short-term deposits dwindle, a slowdown in economic activity is anticipated, potentially leading to a reduction in inflationary pressures.

The insights from this data could play a pivotal role in guiding the ECB's discussions on whether to temporarily halt the series of interest rate hikes, a departure from the trend set in motion since July 2022.

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🇭🇺 Hungary to cut rates amid recession hitting records

Hungary
is likely to cut its key interest rate by a full percentage point as it tries to move toward ending an extraordinary monetary regime under which policymakers are trying to combat the country's longest recession since at least 1995.

Analysts say the central bank will cut the overnight interest rate to 14% on Tuesday. The move will bring the instrument, which was made the key rate in October to stem a plunge in the forint, one step away from the benchmark rate, which is expected to be kept at 13%.

Hungary's economy has contracted for four consecutive quarters as consumers and companies struggle with the highest inflation in the European Union and the highest borrowing costs, which are depressing consumption and production.

Hungary’s economy is expected to contract this year by 0.3%, according to a Bloomberg survey, confounding the government’s forecast for growth.

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🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia's changing investment plans caused reserves to fall

Saudi Arabia's
foreign reserves fell by more than $16 billion last month as the kingdom allocates less money to its central bank and funnels more into riskier assets.

The country has been shifting its investment strategy over the past few years away from keeping most of its foreign assets with the central bank as it builds up hundreds of billions of dollars in sovereign funds.

Thus, net foreign assets fell to 1.53 trillion riyals ($407 billion) after rising in May and June, the central bank said in its monthly report released on Monday.

It is the sharpest fall since the pandemic, when oil revenues plunged and the kingdom used its reserves to fund bets on rising US stocks.

Although the kingdom made huge profits last year as oil prices averaged about $100 a barrel, almost none of that went into the central bank's reserves.

Its overseas deposits fell by about $15 billion to just over $94 billion in July.

Saudi Arabia's finance ministry has said at least part of last year's surplus will be used to rebuild the central bank's reserves, but they are now about $30 billion less than they were at the start of the year.

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🇬🇧 A silver lining for the UK?

The slowest rise in food prices in almost a year drove down inflation in British stores in August, easing pressure on the Bank of England to keep raising interest rates.

The British Retail Consortium reported that store price inflation fell sharply again in August to 6.9% from 7.6% a month earlier. Food price led the decline, particularly for meat, potatoes and cooking oils.

Prices are still rising much faster than the Bank of England's 2% target, but the slowdown offers hope that the sharp pressure on households may soon pass. The figures also suggest that the marked decline in food inflation will continue.

The Bank of England is now considering how much further it needs to raise rates to contain economy-wide inflation, which is still more than three times the target level.

Markets expect the central bank to make two more final rate hikes to the maximum 5.75% level, including a quarter-point increase at the September meeting.

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🇩🇪 German manufacturing is fleeing abroad

Against the backdrop of high energy prices in the country, German companies are increasingly cutting back on investments and focusing on production abroad.

More than half of the companies surveyed say the energy transition is having a negative or very negative impact on their competitiveness, according to a report by the German Chamber of Commerce and Industry.

Among manufacturers, almost one-third are considering or already relocating production abroad - twice as many as during last year's energy crisis.

Germany's manufacturing-dominated economy has endured a prolonged period of weakness that shows no signs of abating amid falling business confidence, and it is the only major European country whose output is forecasted to contract this year.

Earlier, when Germany was still receiving gas from Russia, producers had relatively low electricity costs, but last year's crisis forced the country to reconsider its plan for future supplies. Currently, electricity prices in the country are among the highest in Europe.

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💰 Grayscale wins case against SEC, Bitcoin reacts

Bitcoin
rises 5% amid Grayscale's victory in its lawsuit against the SEC.

A US federal appeals court has ruled that the SEC's rejection of Grayscale's application for a spot Bitcoin ETF was incorrect.

Grayscale filed suit against the SEC in June 2022 after the agency rejected its application to make GBTC an ETF.

The company argued that the SEC acted arbitrarily by not applying the same approach to similar investment products and therefore violated the Administrative Procedure Act and the Securities Exchange Act of 1934.

At the trial, Grayscale presented evidence that GBTC (Grayscale Bitcoin Trust) met all of the requirements for registration as an ETF and that converting GBTC to an ETF would benefit investors and the market as a whole.

The company also pointed out that the SEC has approved several bitcoin futures ETFs that have more risks and complexities than a spot bitcoin ETF.

Grayscale commented the court's decision calling it a huge step forward for US investors and the Bitcoin ecosystem.

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Multipolar Market
X (Twitter) reportedly receives payment service license in Maryland Elon Musk's social platform has obtained a money transmitter license for providing payment services in Maryland, US. Follow us on Telegram and Twitter
💬 Twitter X Payments confirmed

Twitter
, or X as it is now known, has received the Rhode Island Currency Transmission License, which is required for cryptocurrency trading in the state.

The license may allow Twitter to provide virtual currency-related services on behalf of its users, such as the storage, transfer and exchange of digital assets.

Twitter has recently been looking to become a payments company. In the past, it has also been expanding its presence in the cryptocurrency space. It has partnered with Strike, a Bitcoin payment app, and added the display of Bitcoin and Etherium addresses in user profiles.

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🇬🇦 Another military coup, this time in Gabon

Gabon's
military has announced on television that it has canceled the results of the presidential election and dissolved state institutions, AFP reported.

"In the name of the Gabonese people <...> we have decided to defend peace by putting an end to the current regime," the military said.

Internet access was blocked and authorities suspended the broadcast of French radio station RFI and television channel France24, as rebels in Niger had previously done.

Earlier, President Ali Bongo Ondimba, 64, who has won 64.27% of the vote in the elections, thus was re-elected for a third term. He had repeatedly changed the constitution and legislation, allowing him to remain in power. He was first elected in 2009 following the death of his father, Omar Bongo Ondimba, who served as Gabon's president for more than 40 years.

Thousands of the country's residents took to the streets after the coup, and the atmosphere looks festive.

Meanwhile, and French mining company Eramet announced the suspension of operations in Gabon.

French influence is considered strong in Gabon - President Ali Bango Ondimba studied in France and was oriented towards Paris in politics.

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EU 'refuses' Russian fuel, importing it in record amounts

The EU is set to import record volumes of LNG from Russia this year, despite the bloc's target to abandon Russian fossil fuels by 2027, FT reported.

At the end of the first 7 months of this year, Belgium and Spain became the second and third largest buyers of Russian LNG after China, according to Global Witness analysis.

Overall, EU imports of supercooled gas rose 40% between January and July this year compared to the same period in 2021. This jump came from a low base, as the EU did not import significant volumes of LNG prior to the Ukraine conflict due to its reliance on Russian pipeline gas.

The Global Witness analysis is based on Kpler data, which showed that the EU is importing about 1.7% more Russian LNG than last year, when imports reached a record high.

According to the organization, the value of LNG imported from January to July at spot market prices was 5.29 billion euros (about $5.72 billion).

“It’s shocking that countries in the EU have worked so hard to wean themselves off piped Russian fossil gas only to replace it with the shipped equivalent,” said Jonathan Noronha-Gant, senior fossil fuel campaigner at Global Witness.

😁 Maybe it's time to work on something useful?

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🇬🇦 Updates on the Gabon situation

After the military seized power in Gabon, some new details have come to light. As usual, we have gathered the most interesting facts at the moment.

▪️Like Niger, Gabon is a former French colony and has a French military base on its territory. The change of power here was accompanied by anti-French slogans as well.

▪️Gabon is one of the largest oil producer (200 thousand barrels per day) and an OPEC member. Thanks to the oil sector, Gabon is one of the most economically stable states in Africa.

▪️It is also a major exporter of manganese, which is very important in metallurgy and for China, where construction is ongoing non-stop.

▪️Gabon's president has resigned but will retain all civil rights, the head of the Republican Guard has said. Speaking about the president's fate, the general said that "he is an ordinary Gabonese like everyone else." He also noted that the president did not have the rights to be elected for a third term so the army took responsibility for his removal.

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Multipolar Market
🇬🇦 Updates on the Gabon situation After the military seized power in Gabon, some new details have come to light. As usual, we have gathered the most interesting facts at the moment. ▪️Like Niger, Gabon is a former French colony and has a French military…
While everyone is focused on the coup in Gabon, let's not forget Niger.

Niger's military council has suspended the treaty on the military presence of French troops in the country, Al Hadath TV channel reported.

According to Sky News Arabia, the rebels are giving France a month to withdraw its troops from the territory of Niger.

Earlier, Paris said it was in favor of military intervention to suppress the anti-French forces that have come to power, and the Niger army has been put on full alert.

Why hasn't Macron called anyone yet?

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🇦🇺 Australia's inflation cools, allowing a pause in rate hikes

Australia's
monthly inflation gauge fell more than expected, bolstering arguments that the Reserve Bank (RBA) may extend a pause in policy tightening at next week's meeting.

A consumer price gauge rose 4.9% in July from a year earlier, while economists had expected 5.2%, data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed Wednesday. This marked the third consecutive slowdown, and the RBA predicts inflation will return to within the 2-3% target range by the end of 2025.

The cooling in prices will be welcomed by Governor Philip Lowe, who has put the central bank in data-dependent mode after raising interest rates 12 times since May 2022.

Expectations that the results would allow the RBA to keep its cool on Tuesday led the Australian dollar to widen losses, and three-year bond yields to fall, while stocks rose.

“With inflation easing globally, including in Australia, there isn't a strong argument in favor of hiking rates in September,” said Callam Pickering, economist at global job site Indeed Inc.

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The Grain Deal 2.0 emerges?

Details of an alternative to the grain deal prepared by Russia, Türkiye and Qatar have been revealed.

Russia is now considering supplying Türkiye with 1 million tons of grain to be processed and sent to countries in need, the Russian Foreign Ministry has said.

The deliveries are to be made at a preferential price "with financial support" from Qatar. After processing in Turkish companies, the grain to be sent to poor countries, mostly in Africa. The measure was proposed by Vladimir Putin as an alternative to the grain deal.

The Russian and Turkish foreign ministers will hold talks on this topic in Moscow from August 31 to September 1.

In mid-August, Bild reported that Russia, Türkiye and Qatar were preparing a new agreement to replace the grain deal in which Moscow suspended its participation on July 18.

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Poor Americans can’t afford food

A
growing share of low-income Americans don't pay rent and can't afford food, which reinforces signs of a growing financial crisis in the economy.

Among households using enhanced Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) pandemic benefits, 42% skipped meals in August and 55% ate less because they couldn't afford food. That's more than double last year's rate, according to a report released Wednesday by Propel Inc.

The data also show that households were worse off in August than they were a month earlier.

Since July, a growing share of low-income households have experienced a utility shut-off, failed to pay the previous month's utility bill, or been unable to pay rent.

More than two-thirds of respondents receiving increased SNAP benefits said they had some form of debt.

The report complements other recent data showing a decline in consumer finances and sentiment, particularly among lower-income households, as labor market demand cools, savings declines and pandemic social supports expire.

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