🇷🇺🇺🇦- Yesterday, Russia launched large artillery strikes at Ukrainian units stationed in Sumy and Kharkov, which lasted three hours long.

🇺🇸⚡️- The House of Representatives has failed to begin an impeachment of Alejandro Mayorkas.

🇸🇦🇮🇱⚡️- The Foreign Ministry of Saudi Arabia has recommitted that there will be no diplomatic relations with Israel unless the State of Palestine is recognized at its 1967 borders.

🇺🇸⚡️- Ronna McDaniel will step down as Chairwoman of the RNC on February 24th.

🇮🇱🇸🇾⚡️- Israeli aircraft carried out an airstrike against a civilian target in Homs, Syria.

The aircraft initially enter Lebanese airspace, carrying out additional combat sorties in Lebanon.

🇺🇸⚡️- The RNC is allegedly considering appointing Kevin McCarthy as Chairman of the RNC due to his "fundraising abilities."

🇷🇺🇺🇦⚡️- 11 Tu-95 Bear are inbound to Ukraine.

🇷🇺🇺🇦⚡️- Many explosions reported in Kharkov

🇷🇺🇺🇦⚡️- Detonations in Kiev

🇷🇺🇺🇦⚡️- Missile alert across all of Ukraine

🇷🇺🇺🇦⚡️- A large barrage of cruise missiles are inbound towards Vinnytsia

🇷🇺🇺🇦⚡️- 4 Iskanders have struck Kharkov

🇷🇺🇺🇦⚡️- Explosions in Odessa

🇷🇺🇺🇦⚡️- Tu-22 Backfire bombers airborne above Bryansk. Possible launch of X-22 missiles.

🇷🇺🇺🇦⚡️- Explosions in Cherkassy and Kirovograd oblasts

🇷🇺🇺🇦⚡️- More explosions in Kiev

🇷🇺🇺🇦⚡️- Missiles inbound to Lviv in Western Ukraine

🇷🇺🇺🇦⚡️- Launches detected from Tu-95 Bear bombers over the Caspian Sea.

Additional launches of "Kalibr" ballsitic missiles reported from the Black Sea

🇷🇺🇺🇦⚡️- Launch of supersonic Onyx missiles from Crimea towards Nikolaiv

🇷🇺🇺🇦 - Russian targeted strikes have been increasing over the last few months, and there's a very clear pattern emerging, especially looking into recent history.

On February 20th, 2014, while the Ukrainian government was being overthrown in an American-backed coup, Russia began its occupation and subsequent annexation of Crimea. In this region, winter tends to end between February 20th and March 5th, creating an environment known as "peak freeze," perfect for Russia's armored doctrine and military maneuverability.

On February 24th, 2022, Russia began its special military operation into Ukraine, also occurring when peak freeze was achieved, although the operation was possibly delayed by the Beijing Olympics at the time.

From early February 2023 to May 2023, Russia successfully seized control of multiple important cities in the Donbass, including Artemivsk and Soledar, eliminating a major Ukrainian bastion in the Donbass and an important logistics hub for Ukrainian defenses routing into the Donbass.

A pattern should be noticeable at this point- Russian military operations coincide with the end of winter and the achievement of "peak freeze" in the region. We're currently approaching peak freeze, and as we've extensively written on this channel, a Russian offensive towards Kharkov is to be expected this spring. We've already witnessed light offensives in the Kharkov oblast, most notably Russia regaining a good amount of lost ground towards the city of Kupyansk, even reaching the outskirts of the city.

The repeated shellings, missile barrages, and strikes that have been taking place in Ukraine can be best described as "shaping operations," preparing the way for Russia to begin a renewed offensive towards Ukraine's 2nd largest city, and possibly cutting down the Donbass cauldron, where the bulk of Ukraine's military is stationed.

In the estimation of the Admin, military operations against Kharkov, Kupyansk, and other cities in the Kharkov oblast could begin between February 20th and March 5th, however Russia may wait until the city of Avdiivka has fallen.

🇷🇺🇺🇦⚡️- Preliminary reports of Ukrainian withdrawal from Avdiivka