Trade Watcher
● US market open
Weekend headlines may lead to gaps and higher volatility at the open. Oil prices moved lower, which can support risk assets, so equities may see a positive start to the week.
Weekend headlines may lead to gaps and higher volatility at the open. Oil prices moved lower, which can support risk assets, so equities may see a positive start to the week.
US stock market indices open sharply higher in their initial reaction to this weekend's events.
The S&P 500 is back above 6,900.
✅ @trading
The S&P 500 is back above 6,900.
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JUST IN: The Venezuelan government has issued an emergency decree ordering police to locate and arrest individuals involved in supporting a U.S. attack.
@trading
@trading
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JUST IN: Bitcoin has surged above $94,000, with leveraged short liquidations exceeding $200 million today. The cryptocurrency has risen nearly $6,000 since Friday night.
@trading
@trading
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TRUMP: “WE NEED GREENLAND”
Kalshi markets now price a 31% chance that the US takes control of part of Greenland after Donald Trump said the issue could be revisited for national security reasons, citing Russian and Chinese presence and claiming EU understanding.
Do you think the US will actually take Greenland?
👍 Yes | 👎 No
✅ @trading
Kalshi markets now price a 31% chance that the US takes control of part of Greenland after Donald Trump said the issue could be revisited for national security reasons, citing Russian and Chinese presence and claiming EU understanding.
Do you think the US will actually take Greenland?
👍 Yes | 👎 No
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Most of you always try to find a reason why a certain trade ended up being a loss.
You keep adapting your system based on one single trade outcome.
That’s why you struggle with finding consistency.
Even your A+ setups will lose, accept it and move on.
✅ @trading
You keep adapting your system based on one single trade outcome.
That’s why you struggle with finding consistency.
Even your A+ setups will lose, accept it and move on.
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A recently created anonymous account on Polymarket placed a $34,000 bet that China will invade Taiwan before year end.
Last week, another anonymous account placed a $34,000 bet on the capture of Nicolás Maduro before the end of January.
That bet paid out, with roughly $320,000 in profit.
Hard to call this coincidence.
✅ @trading
Last week, another anonymous account placed a $34,000 bet on the capture of Nicolás Maduro before the end of January.
That bet paid out, with roughly $320,000 in profit.
Hard to call this coincidence.
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Ray Dalio sums up 2025 and where to look in 2026
The founder of the world’s largest hedge fund, Ray Dalio, shared his take on how markets really behaved in 2025 and what matters next.
Here’s a tight TLDR.
● 2025 was about money, not stocks. Fiat currencies lost value and gold was the real top performer.
● US equities looked strong only in USD terms. Against stronger currencies and gold, they underperformed.
● Currency moves matter more than headline equity returns. Ignoring FX distorts reality.
● US stocks and bonds look expensive with low forward returns at current valuations.
● Bonds and cash lose appeal when money keeps weakening.
● Capital is rotating away from US assets toward non-US markets and gold.
● AI helped margins, but Dalio sees it as late-cycle fuel, not a clean growth reset.
● Debt, politics, geopolitics, and currency debasement remain the main drivers into 2026.
Markets in 2026 will be driven by currencies, debt dynamics, and policy pressure, not equity narratives.
Full version here: Link
✅ @trading
The founder of the world’s largest hedge fund, Ray Dalio, shared his take on how markets really behaved in 2025 and what matters next.
Here’s a tight TLDR.
● 2025 was about money, not stocks. Fiat currencies lost value and gold was the real top performer.
● US equities looked strong only in USD terms. Against stronger currencies and gold, they underperformed.
● Currency moves matter more than headline equity returns. Ignoring FX distorts reality.
● US stocks and bonds look expensive with low forward returns at current valuations.
● Bonds and cash lose appeal when money keeps weakening.
● Capital is rotating away from US assets toward non-US markets and gold.
● AI helped margins, but Dalio sees it as late-cycle fuel, not a clean growth reset.
● Debt, politics, geopolitics, and currency debasement remain the main drivers into 2026.
Markets in 2026 will be driven by currencies, debt dynamics, and policy pressure, not equity narratives.
Full version here: Link
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JUST IN: Elon Musk's xAI has secured $20 billion in its Series E funding round, surpassing the expected $15 billion. Nvidia is designated as a strategic investor to facilitate the development of the world's largest GPU clusters.
@trading
@trading
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Wealth isn't having a million dollars in the bank.
Wealth is having the skills to make that million back if the bank disappears tomorrow.
✅ @trading
Wealth is having the skills to make that million back if the bank disappears tomorrow.
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This book delivers 50 sharp trading quotes with short lessons and 20 clean visuals that focus on mindset, discipline, and patience.
The goal is simple: stop repeating the same mistakes.
It’s built to be a book you keep close.
Open any page and you get a quick reset that sharpens thinking and restores control. Even experienced traders will find reminders that tighten process and reduce emotional decisions.
Inside, you’ll learn how to:
Whether you’re new or have years of screen time, this book offers practical mindset shifts that make trading cleaner, steadier, and more professional.
Keep it on your desk.
Use it when you slip.
Progress comes faster than you expect.
Available on Amazon
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Trade Watcher
Trump: "If we don't win the midterms, I will get impeached." ✅ @trading
The odds of Democrats winning the US House of Representatives in the 2026 midterms rise to 79%, per Polymarket.
Markets think Republicans are set to lose the midterms.
✅ @trading
Markets think Republicans are set to lose the midterms.
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BREAKING: The US has attempted to seize a Russian oil tanker in the Atlantic Ocean.
Russian state media reports that a helicopter was looking to land US forces on the Russian tanker.
Flight data also shows 4 US Air Force aircrafts around the tanker.
✅ @trading
Russian state media reports that a helicopter was looking to land US forces on the Russian tanker.
Flight data also shows 4 US Air Force aircrafts around the tanker.
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Moderna $MRNA forms a Golden Cross for the first time since April 2024.
The last one sent shares soaring almost 60% over the next 6 weeks.
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The last one sent shares soaring almost 60% over the next 6 weeks.
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BREAKING: President Trump confirms he is considering using the US military to take control of Greenland, citing "national security concerns."
The odds of Trump acquiring Greenland in 2026 surge to a new high of 15%, per Polymarket.
Is the US about to acquire 2 countries in 1 year?
✅ @trading
The odds of Trump acquiring Greenland in 2026 surge to a new high of 15%, per Polymarket.
Is the US about to acquire 2 countries in 1 year?
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CNBC reports that Venezuelan oil sales to the US will continue indefinitely, with sanctions being eased. This follows comments from Donald Trump, who said Venezuela sent 30 to 50 million barrels of crude to the US within the last 12 hours.
The shipments are expected to be sold at market prices, implying more than $2B in value. At the same time, restrictions on Venezuelan exports are being gradually reduced.
The next step discussed by the market is increased involvement from large US oil companies, which could unlock higher production over time. Venezuela’s output is still far below historical levels due to years of underinvestment.
If this path continues, Venezuelan crude flows shift structurally toward the US, reshaping global energy trade.
The US effectively gains direct influence over an OPEC producer.
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If you're not working on yourself, you’re not improving your trading either.
How you act in your everyday life will reflect on the charts as well.
✅ @trading
How you act in your everyday life will reflect on the charts as well.
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A bond trader just placed the biggest Fed funds futures trade ever recorded. The block trade totaled 200,000 contracts in the January contract, confirmed as a record by CME.
This is not a small speculative bet. The position carries around $8 million of PnL for every 1 basis point move in Fed expectations, which makes it one of the most aggressive rate positions seen in years.
Moves like this do not happen randomly. Someone is expressing a very strong view on rates, or quietly exiting one.
Either way, the rates market is waking up.
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