Techno_Fog – Telegram
Techno_Fog
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More of a stream of consciousness here.
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https://open.substack.com/pub/technofog/p/donald-trump-survives

The assassination attempt was bound to happen, given the rhetoric from the other side: that Trump is an “existential threat,” that the GOP was turning into Hezbollah, that Trump is a fascist who will open up camps and never leave office.

Mind you, those allegations are coming from the liberal mainstream – the Hezbollah comment, for example, was published in The Washington Post. More recently, the Washington Post compared Trump to Hitler.

Say those things long enough, and your supporters will start to believe it. And if they believe it they might just act on it.
Thomas Crooks… unemployed ActBlue donor for Progressive turnout? 🤔
What are the odds that after a long, drawn-out investigation, the Secret Service ends up blaming local authorities...
Special Counsel Jack Smith's Florida case against Donald Trump has been dismissed.

Judge Cannon:

"The Superseding Indictment is DISMISSED because Special Counsel Smith's appointment violates the Appointments Clause of the U.S. Constitution."
Overview - the rationale behind Judge Cannon's dismissal of Special Counsel Smith's case against Donald Trump.

The Special Counsel's arguments concerning the legality of his appointment would erode Congressional powers, give the Executive unchecked power, and erode basic separation of powers principles.

https://technofog.substack.com/p/the-trump-florida-case-dismissed
The VP Pick is in: Trump selects Ohio Senator JD Vance.
New Jersey Democrat Bob Menendez convicted on all 18 counts in sweeping bribery and corruption trial.

Menendez accepted hundreds of thousands of dollars in bribes - including cash, a luxury vehicle, and gold bars in exchange for protecting his business associates and benefiting the country of Egypt.

The charges included conspiracy to commit bribery and extortion, and conspiracy for a foreign official to act as a foreign agent.

https://nypost.com/2024/07/16/us-news/sen-bob-menendez-convicted-of-sprawling-gold-bar-bribery-scheme/
Joe Biden has dropped out.
https://technofog.substack.com/p/stolen-valor

Service is honorable. Lies about service and abandoning your battalion?

As dishonorable as it gets. Kamala and Tim Walz have a problem and it's not going away.
Just in - Trump will not face sentencing in his New York case until after the election.

Judge Juan Merchan has rescheduled sentencing for November 26. It was previously set for September 18.

Huge break.
Latest Quinnipiac University Poll -

Trump leads in Michigan (3%) and Wisconsin (2%); Trump behind 3% in Pennsylvania.

We see the Pennsylvania race closer - but Quinnipiac, to their credit, admits that Kamala's support in PA (and elsewhere) is slipping.

Key quote: "The Harris post-debate starburst dims to a glow as Harris enters the last weeks slipping slightly in the Rust Belt."

Notable - Trump wins independents in all three states.

Momentum is shifting.
It turns out that latest Trump accuser was an Obama fundraiser and a Democrat donor.

And the reporter pushing the allegations is the same reporter who pushed a 2020 October surprise "sexual assault" - again, from a Democrat.

What are the odds?

https://technofog.substack.com/p/on-that-latest-trump-accuser
Reasons for optimism -

Biden won Miami Dade County by approximately 7% in 2020.

Early voting shows Republican voters outpacing Democrats.

And Trump likely has the edge with Miami Dade independents.
Nevada -

Republicans maintain an early vote lead by 42,000 votes (4.8 percent).

Lots of unknowns, but this from a moderate/liberal Nevada pundit is important: "GOP still looking stronger than ever at this point in an election, with substantial ballot lead."

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-2024
Latest polls from Atlas Intel -

Trump leads in 6 of 7 swing states, with the largest advantages in Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina.

Still a tight race but Trump has a very real chance to carry all 7 swing states.
Democrats are admitting that “the early vote numbers are a little scary.”

The Trump campaign says “Our internal polls have President Trump leading in every single key battleground state.”

Will it be enough?

https://technofog.substack.com/p/election-2024-the-day-before
Miami Dade went to Biden +7% in 2020.

At 12:30pm EST, Republicans are up on Democrats by nearly 32,000 votes. (Not counting independents.)

Democrats in Miami Dade aren't showing up in big numbers for election day voting - Republicans lead them by ~1,500 votes.

It's only one county out of thousands, but it suggests that Kamala has a serious enthusiasm problem.
Another example from Florida - this time Broward County.

In 2020, Democrats had 274,000 votes by mail.

In 2024, it was down to 145,000.

We've seen the same in Arizona and Pennsylvania - Democrat early voting numbers are way down. Things are looking good for Republicans if Democrats don't turn it around with election day turnout.
New York Times at 9:22 EST

Leaning towards a Trump victory.

NYT has Georgia and North Carolina leaning Trump.