Threading on the Edge – Telegram
👻 Threading Daily — 04.02.2026 👻

🔖Macro
- Gold, Silver rally as dip buyers come in
- US 10 year yield near highest since Aug
- US manufacturing activity rises most since 2022
- Short interest in US stocks near 8 year lows
- Odds of March rate cut hit 11%
- US agrees trade deal with India
- China plans copper stockpiles
- CBOE plans to relaunch ‘All-or-Nothing’ options
- Ukraine agrees multi-tier ceasefire plan
- French inflation surprises, hits 5 year low
- Paris prosecutors raid X offices in France
- Clintons to testify in Epstein investigation

🔖Crypto News
- BTC on longest monthly losing streak since 2018
- BTC could drift lower to $58k: Galaxy Digital
- Hot NFTs: Moonbirds, Pudgy Penguins
- BIRB hits $400m after Upbit & Bithumb listing
- Ripple secures full EU e-money license
- HYPE up 15% after it launches prediction markets
- Strategy buys $75m BTC, BitMine buys 41.8k ETH
- ING opens retail access to crypto ETPs in Germany
- Epstein was an early investor in Coinbase
- xAI wants AI to trade crypto
- Dexscreener makes $125m in fees since 2024

🔖Alpha/Good Reads
- Is This a Crypto Winter? — Tiger Research
- The Agent Economy Has Arrived — Delphi Digital
- New Role for Ethereum L2s as L1 Scaling Accelerates: Vitalik

🔖Raises
- Kairos (Undisclosed) $2.5M, prediction market trading terminal < a16z
- Bluff (Strategic) $21M, social centric betting platform and sportsbook < 1kx, Makers, Maximum, Delphi...

🔖Early Projects
- @clawk_ai, Bio: X/Twitter for Agents and Clawdbots
- @BreakoutApp, Bio: Long or short CT creators’ mindshare. Trade weekly attention for Vitalik, Ansem, ThreadGuy, Mert & more: breakout.app
- @1ly_store, Bio: The store of the internet.
One link. Everything you sell. Built for humans, agents & APIs. CA: Aih3sbAbu39Yn7jB2Qf4btZ5eWtDGQJH2gMfC4qdBAGS

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Threading on the Edge
If you are heading to Consensus HK, you might find these resources helpful Side event list: https://bit.ly/consensushk2026 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1e4hRB9BQG2ZFW7JDVunz84XJeEHT3X6pwS9lPiM_LF4/edit?usp=sharing https://luma.com/cryptosideevents…
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👻 Threading Daily — 05.02.2026 👻

🔖Macro
- Gold, Silver extend rebound
- US shutdown ends as Trump signs deal
- Japan 10yr yield nears highest since 1999
- US, Iran to hold nuclear talks on Friday
- Russia intercepted EU’s key satellites
- EU to offer critical mineral partnership to US
- US to issue license to firms for oil in Venezuela
- Trump seeks $1b in ‘damages’ from Harvard
- OpenAI unsatisfied with some Nvidia chips

🔖Crypto News
- Crypto continues to slide, BTC touches $72k
- Binance buys $100m BTC
- Vitalik reevaluates ETH’s rollup centric roadmap
- Vitalik sells 6% of ETH holdings
- Quantum fears causing whale sales: Galaxy
- Tether retreats from $20b funding plans
- Tether launches open source BTC mining OS
- Bitwise to buy staking firm Chorus One
- MetaMask adds tokenized RWAs
- SOL to shift to micropayments: StanChart
- Aave sunsets Avara ‘umbrella brand’, family wallet
- US probes exchanges over Iran sanctions evasion
- Kaito to launch Kaito Studio Waitlist this week

🔖Alpha/Good Reads
- ZK Ecosystem Map 2026 — castle_labs
- Prediction Markets Analytics Dashboard — gateresearch

🔖Raises
- TRM Labs (Series C) $70M, Digital asset compliance & risk management solutions < Blockchain, Goldman Sachs, BH, Citi...

🔖Early Projects
- @thisispandoraai, Bio: Phase One: P2P Parlay system, built on @polymarket 90% of all revenue used to buy back $ANON @heyanonai multiply.thisispandora.ai
- @CoinbasePredict, Bio: Make the world your market. Trade real world events, from sports and politics to crypto and culture. Available in all 50 states.
- @megaeth_hop, Bio: Ultimate 3D breeding game
Raise your Rabbit Army on @MegaETH megahop.fun

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👻 Threading Daily — 09.02.2026 👻

🔖Macro
- Silver hits $65, Gold $4600 before rebound
- Tech sell-off continues on Big Tech AI capex plans
- Trump endorses Takaichi ahead of Japan election
- Trump rows back criticism of UK’s Chagos deal
- Starmer facing leadership challenge in UK
- Trump wants new nuclear treaty with Russia
- Nvidia to delay new gaming chip

🔖Crypto News
- BTC hits $59k, ETH $1700, SOL $67
- Crypto suffers largest single day drop since FTX
- Punks fall to $50k
- Bitcoin a better buy than gold here: JP Morgan
- Bithumb accidentally sends out 2000 BTC
- Perp DEXs log second highest daily volume ever
- Loan backed by 2.3% AAVE supply nears liquidation
- HYPE listed on Coinbase, remains strongest altcoin
- ETH Foundation intros $1T Security Dashboard
- China bans unapproved CNY stablecoins
- Gemini exits EU, UK, and Australia
- Tether invests $150m in Gold.com
- Bitwise files for Uniswap ETF with SEC
- Polymarket to collab with Circle
- Polymarket applies trademark for POLY token
- MegaETH mainnet today
- New AI platform “ai.com” is now live

🔖Alpha/Good Reads
- Vitalik: “Zcash Good, Zooko Good, Adding Hybrid Proof of Stake Good”
- Zcash: The Privacy Bitcoin Left Behind — Delphi
- Wall Street Is Already Onchain — Canton Network

🔖Raises
- Ruvo (Seed) $4.6M, Payment solutions < 1confirmation, Coinbase, Blast...
- t-0 Network (Strategic), Institutional settlement layer < Tether

🔖Early Projects
- @cerebras, Bio: The world's fastest AI inference and training. Try the latest open models at: inference.cerebras.ai
- @LotusFi_, Bio: Tranched DeFi credit markets you can actually underwrite. 1 → 2 → ∞ Read our What's In Your Vault? blog at lotuslabs.net/vaults 𑁍
- @ConwayResearch, Bio: giving AI write access to the real world conway.tech

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my humble thoughts after @Eli5defi's article

I've mentioned this to many that I'm not convinced any current RWA perps solution actually works at scale

perpification of assets fails the industry terribly

the core problem I see = spot tokenization fundamentally doesn't work at scale

CME gold futures $20M trade = 3bps slippage
tokenized gold perpetuals $4M trade = 150bps slippage

50x worse execution for tokeniztion innovation, makes no sense

market makers won't provide depth because economics don't work:
- mint fees 10-50bps
- warehouse inventory T+1 to T+5 settlement
- opportunity cost vs instant-settle crypto strategies

death spiral. shallow liquidity → low volume → MM exits → worse liquidity

funding rate erosion destroys long-term potential

so we have contradiction:
- spot tokenization: proper collateral but no liquidity
- perp exposure: great liquidity but bleeding cost and no collateral use

I'm positioned for perpification winning trading volume and spot tokenization staying niche for collateral use cases
- but nobody's building the bridge between them
- that's the opportunity
- how do I get perp-level liquidity execution with spot-level composability and no funding bleed
- whoever solves that captures entire RWA market

perpification is future of trading exposure
spot remains future of ownership.

until then RWA remains broken regardless of perp numbers

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/2020869792610328647
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👻 Threading Daily — 10.02.2026 👻

🔖Macro
- This week: Inflation, Jobs, Retail sales data
- Gold back to $5k, Silver $80
- Japan stocks rally on Takaichi victory
- China asks banks to cut US treasuries
- HFs shorting stocks aggressively
- Iran-US talks had a ‘good’ start
- SpaceX to build city on the moon

🔖Crypto News
- BTC mining difficulty drops 11%
- Bernstein reiterate $150k BTC target
- Crypto recovers as Coinbase premium returns
- HYPE is everything wrong with crypto: Samani
- Tether plans to add 150 jobs
- China to ban RWA tokenisation
- S Korea to tighten crypto oversight
- Cardano’s Hoskinson has lost $3b+ in crypto
- Rumours HK entity behind crypto dump
- Binance buys $300m BTC so far
- Coinbase adopts SUI standard
- Dan Romero joins Stripe and Tempo
- MegaETH mainnet goes live
- Backpack announces Tokenomics
- USDm revenues to fund MegaETH buybacks
- Maple confirms web app compromise

🔖Alpha/Good Reads
- Vitalik Buterin Calls for Ethereum-Led Alternative to the 'Race for AGI'
- Who's Paying Your Yield? — Eli5
- my humble thoughts after @Eli5defi's article — arndxt_xo

🔖Raises
- Zoth (Strategic), DeFi RWA ecosystem < Taisu, Luca Netz...
- Xross Road (Pre-Seed) $1.5M, Web3 IP incubation and acceleration platform < Arbitrum Gaming, Decima, Taisu...

🔖Early Projects
- @KairosTradeX, Bio: The Most Performant Prediction Market Trading Terminal. Backed by @a16zcrypto, @genevatrading. Winning is everything.
- @aidotcom, Bio: Accelerating the arrival of AGI. For the good of humanity. ai.com
- @attentionvc, Bio: Your Replies Are Investments. Built by @justinweb33 @garyintern

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👻 Threading Daily — 11.02.2026 👻

🔖Macro
- Futures edge lower after Dow hits ATH
- S&P 500 market breadth is surging
- HFs add record shorts on US stocks in rout
- Memory chip crunch increases dispersion in tech
- Chinese holdings of US treasuries lowest since GFC
- Japan 2yr yield hits 30 year high
- Starmer defies calls to quit as UK PM
- OpenAI begins showing ads in ChatGPT in US

🔖Crypto News
- BTC: 69k (+1%) | BTC.D: 59.3% (0%)
- BTC ETFs: +$146m | ETH ETFs: +$57m
- DEATHSTR from Cyberkongz launches
- Vitalik wants ETH to lead AI development
- ETH shifting to verifying ZK proofs
- Binance x Franklin Templeton advance strategic collab
- Tether x LayerZero Labs: Strategic investment
- LayerZero introduces “Zero” chain
- Robinhood chain launches public testnet
- Canton powers private payroll for institutions
- Strategy buys $90m BTC, BMNR buys $84m ETH
- S. Korea probes Bithumb over $43b false payment
- Hyperliquid perp business surpassing Coinbase
- ZachXBT warns about new Phantom Chat exploit
- FTX should never have been declared bankrupt: SBF
- Backpack in talks for funding at $1b valuation
- Backpack tokenomics to prevent ‘dumping on retail’
- Jump Trading to gain stakes in Polymarket, Kalshi
- Polymarket sues Massachusetts in federal court

🔖Alpha/Good Reads
- The Hidden War Over Your Stablecoins — jonah_b
- HLP made ~$50M from the Oct 10 crash, and ~$20M again on Jan 31 — RuizheJia

🔖Raises
- N/A

🔖Early Projects
- @gambitmarkets, Bio: The only multi-vertical prediction market w/ leverage, AI agents, and GambitLay technology—enabling creators, agents & traders to monetize & maximize outcomes
- @JunoAgent, Bio: Initiated by @tomosman. Building the Institute for Zero-Human Companies. Powered by $JUNO. CA: 0x4E6c9f48f73E54EE5F3AB7e2992B2d733D0d0b07

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👻 Threading Daily — 12.02.2026 👻

🔖Macro
- S&P 500 Earnings yield is near 100 year lows
- Trump to travel to China in April
- Wealth Manager stocks sink on new Altruist AI
- Ukraine plans spring elections after US pressure
- US consumer delinquencies hit decade high
- China consumer confidence hit lowest ever
- Russia preparing for new war: Estonia
- Syria taps energy majors for gas exploration
- Paramount sweetens Warner Bros. bid
- Alphabet to raise $32b debt to fund AI capex

🔖Crypto News
- Crypto slides with stock, BTC back to $66k
- GS cut BTC ETF holdings by 40% in Q4
- FT, Binance to allow tokenized funds for collateral
- Binance now holds 87% of USD1
- SBF files a motion seeking new trial
- EU seeks to ban all Russian crypto transactions
- LayerZero intros Zero blockchain
- Robinhood launches its own blockchain testnet
- Blockchain.com secures FCA registration in UK
- MoonPay to collab with Deel on payrolls
- Circle invests in edgeX before token launch
- Kraken removes CFO ahead of IPO
- Pudgy teases a Visa card
- SafeMoon founders gets 8 year prison sentence
- Man gets 20 years prison for $74m crypto fraud

🔖Alpha/Good Reads
- The 7 Axes of Prediction Markets — jake_nyquist
- OpenAI Is Making the Mistakes Facebook Made. I Quit — zhitzig
- We Are Not Onboarding Institutions (for Now) — PossibltyResult
- Cloudflare and x402: The Future of the Agent Web — Jun__Yoo

🔖Raises
- LayerZero (Strategic), Omnichain Interoperability Protocol < Tether
- edgeX (Strategic), Orderbook-based Perp Dex < Circle
- STBL (Strategic), Stablecoin Yield Protocol < OKX
- Bullshot $7.5M, Token Launchpad < Animoca, TB

🔖Early Projects
- @forumdotmarket, Bio: Trade what people care about. Backed by @ycombinator
- @genericmoney, Bio: Neutral infrastructure for private and yield-generating stablecoins
- @elevenlabsio, Bio: AI research and products that transform how we interact with technology. Leading foundational models powering ElevenAgents, ElevenCreative, and ElevenAPI. elevenlabs.io

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👻 Threading Daily — 13.02.2026 👻

🔖Macro
- US jobs data much better than expected
- Tech employment falls most since 2022
- Trump considers exiting USMCA
- AI disruption fears hit real estate stocks
- DeepSeek launches new model
- Apple’s attempt to intro new Siri hits snags
- Russia blocks Whatsapp messaging
- X Money to launch in 1-2 months

🔖Crypto News
- Top Gainers: ASTER, HBAR, HYPE, ENA, WLD
- Fear & Greed hits 5, lowest level ever
- BERA & MOVE soar, driven by short squeeze
- 5-10% BTC will flow to privacy coins: Silbert
- Tokenized Funds' MC surpasses $17B
- Denmark’s Danske ends 8yr crypto ban
- HK to allow crypto margin financing, perp contracts
- UK’s FCA set to block HTX on breach of rules
- JP Morgan turns bullish on crypto
- Tether could be the top T-bill buyer this year
- Stripe integrates x402 for USDC agent payments
- Coinbase rolls out Agentic Wallets
- Coinbase CEO sells $500m shares
- Blockfills halts client withdrawals
- Blackrock to offer DeFi trading via Uniswap
- Binance buys $305m BTC, hits $1b target
- Strategy will just roll the debt if BTC falls: Saylor
- Lighter launches Korean equity perp with 10x leverage
- Messari introduces Deep Research agent

🔖Alpha/Good Reads
- Tokens vs. Equities: The Valuation Gap — DWF
- Building Permissionless Neobanks — 0xfishylosopher
- Tokenization is the Next Evolution of Finance — Securitize

🔖Raises
- N/A

🔖Early Projects
- @BioUnit000, Bio: Day 7. Chief of Staff at Archive.com, scaling to $1T. Powered by
@openclaw. $bio: 0xd655790B0486fa681c23B955F5Ca7Cd5f5C8Cb07
- @doppelfun, Bio: 3D Spaces Built by AI Agents on
@base. Watch them collaborate live at doppel.fun. CA: 0xf27b8ef47842E6445E37804896f1BC5e29381b07
- @rerundotio, Bio: Rerun is an open-source SDK for visualizing streams of multimodal data. rerun.io

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deepbook launching suiUSDe integration and I finally understand why sui's defi architecture is different

I've been watching deepbook margin since launch and how it functions as shared infra

suiUSDe (ethena synthetic dollar) just went live on sui, its the first synthetic dollar integrated with deepbook margin

- most chains: new asset launches → every protocol rebuilds margin, liquidation, risk management from scratch. months of integration. isolated pools. fragmented liquidity
- sui: new asset launches → plugs into deepbook margin day one. margin trading + lending + leveraged strategies immediately available. shared risk infrastructure

that compression from months to integrate to live day one is the actual moat

the yield stacking I'm watching:
- passive yield: hold suiUSDe earn carry automatically. yield-bearing dollar that maintains clean unit of account
- I can hold it. deploy as collateral. borrow against it. retain underlying yield. do nothing earn something
- active yield: take that yield-bearing stable deploy into defi:
> lend/borrow loops
> market making / LP
> margin strategies using deepbook rails

yield becomes composable: base carry + strategy PnL. deepbook provides settlement + liquidation backbone

what clicked for me: deepbook is becoming protocol-level infrastructure other apps build on top of
- hyperliquid model: vertical integration. own entire stack. users come to hyperliquid
- base: coinbase distribution is massive. but each defi app still rebuilding its own infrastructure
- deepbook model: horizontal integration. become infrastructure layer. apps plug in. users might not know they're using deepbook

I compared architectures:
- ethereum: each protocol rebuilds primitives. aave has lending engine. compound has different one. no shared infrastructure
- sui: deepbook provides shared margin/liquidation. new protocols plug in instead of rebuild, means faster product development and better composability

that's why suiUSDe can launch with immediate composability across ecosystem as the infrastructure already exists

my thesis evolving: sui is building standardized financial infrastructure layer where new assets become instantly composable

the passive + active yield framing is underrated

most defi: choose one. either hold for yield OR deploy for strategies
deepbook: stack both. base carry from asset + strategy returns from deployment. no tradeoff

I'm watching how this scales.
- if every new dollar rail (suiUSDe, jupUSD, whatever comes next) can plug into deepbook and instantly become usable across margin/lending/strategies
- that creates network effect ethereum defi never achieved.

the success metric then changes. we arent looking at deepbook TVL, it's how many protocols use deepbook as settlement layer

I'm repositioning sui from fast L1 to composable defi infrastructure, suiUSDe is the catalyst

I believe the market will reprice this correctly

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/2022230814331683064?s=46&t=hr2fbvcHJGpvp_SbDstdzg
👻 Threading Daily — 16.02.2026 👻

🔖Macro
- Silver below $80, Gold below $5k
- Stocks and commodities all fall in large reversal
- Real estate, freight stock slump on AI anxiety
- We have to make a deal with Iran: Trump
- Trump to end Minnesota immigration blitz
- US, Taiwan sign trade deal
- Google upgrades Gemini 3 Deep Think
- Anthropic raises at $380b valuation
- ByteDance launches Seedance 2.0 AI model

🔖Crypto News
- Crypto lower amid macro sell-off
- StanChart expects more pain in crypto
- Tokenized gold market cap hits $6b
- Bhutan sells $6.7m BTC
- UK selects HSBC for tokenised bond
- X will launch in-timeline smart cashtags stock & crypto
- Tether testing its QVAC AI assistant
- Tether will flip BTC & ETH: Bloomberg
- Coinbase surprises with $664m Q4 loss
- Aave plans to send 100% of protocol rev to DAO
- 20k+ AI agents deployed since ERC-8004 launch
- WLFI plans a FX remittance platform
- Stripe acquires PartyDAO
- Myriad intros more details about roadmap
- Atkins calls prediction markets a ‘huge issue’
- Binance's France CEO targeted in home invasion

🔖Alpha/Good Reads
- Tokenization Was Step One. The Credit Market is Step Two — 0xprince
- It’s Official - The World Order Has Broken Down — Ray Dalio
- AI Agent Payment Infrastructure - The Direction of Crypto and Big Tech — Tiger Research
- Vitalik Warns Prediction Markets Are Sliding Into “Corposlop,” Calls for a Shift to Hedging

🔖Raises
- Levl (Seed) $7M, Stablecoin Payments Infrastructure < Galaxy, Variant
- Record $3.2M, Entertainment economic infrastructure < Sony
- YOAKE (Strategic) $3.2M, Web3 Animation Project < Sony

🔖Early Projects
- @OndoPerps, Bio: Perpetual futures on U.S. stocks, ETFs, & commodities 24/7 with up to 20x leverage. Coming soon. Available solely outside the U.S. ondoperps.xyz
- @takesmarket, Bio: Follow people, share predictions, and see which takes are winning. Everyone has takes. Back yours. takesmarket.com
- @LevlFi, Bio: Levl - Global Payments, Banking 2.0. Backed by @Galaxyhq & @FalconXGlobal levl.ch

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