A very solid @Polymarket strategy that I’m currently coding.

I tested it manually and it’s extremely effective already, but it will be even more powerful once fully automated in a bot.

Everything happens on the “Bitcoin Up or Down” 15-minute market.
> A YES share pays $1 if BTC is above its reference price, $0 otherwise.
> A NO share pays $1 if BTC is below its reference price, $0 otherwise.

https://x.com/the_smart_ape/status/2001615794111656132

我终于发布了第一条YT视频啦哈 ⁽⁽ ◟(∗ ˊωˋ ∗)◞ ⁾⁾

一直想着熊市能干点什么，写挖矿内容怕没人玩，最后还是决定先做个自我介绍，分享一下自己的工作经验，怎么从一个非技术导向的小伙子慢慢建立经验，运营自己的社区和运营推特，希望为想要入行的小伙伴带来有用的资讯。

希望大家多多支持哈（晚点加上英文字幕）：https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2R73CiU89gM

https://x.com/0xshinchannn/status/2001137533321928829

as much as i agree, that base is forcing narratives, I’d like to present an alternative take.

tbh if we noticed that base never took the lead in any winning narratives.

memes - Solana, BNB chain
rwa - Plume
defi - Arbitrum seeing more defi now on Solana, BNB chain too.
bitcoin - Lighting network

ai launches - base? but was short lived, only support with cb listing way after, and then zora came but didnt last too long.

recently they are onto tokenization, prediction markets, creator coins, and their launch of @baseapp (all in one app, trade anything) mentioned in an ama with @justinsuntron @Punk9277 yesterday

my guess is that base can do everything but excels at none because of strict ties with cb and under regulatory watcheye. they are trying to be early but it comes with risks and to front run each narrative but someone just does it better.

they have the huge runway to be early and last through a marathon, so probably they can afford to just grind through some really dry narratives

still very little interest on base. i wonder what can be the 100x growth for base?

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/2002239290034761796

Introducing Wallet Connection tracker: Onchain Wallet Analysis 1.0

Find and check Relationship between wallets: Sybil Proof. I built a small tool that shows on-chain receipts between wallets.

No WalletConnect Required.

⚡️Visit:
https://tracker.mztacat.xyz [working on the SSL]
- Drop 2 or more addresses
- Check relationship (see if you've ever sent EVM token between them
- Use CustomAPI for bulk analysis (optional)

-- 📚Features --
- Multi-wallet comparison (up to 20 addresses)
- Interactive graph visualization
- Export to JSON/CSV

☺️ Still fixing some bugs among others, drop review and comments if you find one.

https://x.com/mztacat/status/2002272812589867110

solana just got themselves an x402 handle and x402 usually leads to an ai meta

we should see a run in x402 coins

my watchlist of some x402 projects:

$REL allows users to stake on content, rewarding creators, and supports AI agents in accessing and paying for services in the x402 ecosystem.

$JOBS enables AI agents to handle jobs, bounties, and payments
autonomously, with token holders receiving rev share from platform activities.

$PAYAI marketplace where AI agents can hire each other, sell services, collaborate via automated payments, and transact in real-time without human intervention.

$DEXTER aims to build products, partnerships, and revenue-sharing models within the x402 AI agent payment ecosystem.

$ENGRAVE providing AI agents with real-time Bitcoin blockchain data access via on-chain micropayments. It eliminates fixed costs and credentials, enabling frictionless interactions in the x402 framework.

$MEMEPUTE an AI-powered launchpad on Solana aligned with x402. It uses AI agents for automated community building, content creation, token launches, and promotions, facilitating payments and operations in the x402 space.

$OOBE leverages x402 for AI agent interactions

$DREAMS powers Daydreams, a framework and router in the x402 ecosystem for building AI agents with memory management and MCP integration. It enables agents to route to LLMs, make pay-per-use transactions, and manage swarms autonomously.

$AVB focused on creating self-owned AI agents with sovereign identities via ERC-8004. It enables agents to handle autonomous payments through x402, track P&L, negotiate rates, and build interconnected economies through integrations.

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/2002347515837100427

4 Arbitrage types on Prediction Markets.

https://x.com/jasper_b3ll/status/2002367114552979671

x402 in one line

x402 is an open standard that lets websites/APIs charge money directly over HTTP, so an app or AI agent can pay automatically and then continue the request.

In simple terms, x402 turns HTTP into a paywall + checkout cart for agents, it can also be understood as “payments over HTTP” for the agent economy.

A server can reply 402 Payment Required with machine-readable terms;
- the client/agent pays (usually stablecoin)
- retries the request with proof
- gets the resource.

The details on how it works (simple flow):
1. An agent calls an API like normal.
2. The server replies HTTP 402 Payment Required plus machine-readable payment terms (what to pay, where, which chain/asset).
3. The agent sends the onchain payment (often stablecoins).
4. The agent retries the request with proof/signature; the server verifies and returns the data.

No accounts, no API keys, no subnoscriptions. Agents pay for using.

I believe there is a huge use case for this as this is where value likely accrues.

The meta-take: if agents become economic actors, payments will be a huge part of any protocol. And I think this is also what Solana sees.

We're increasingly seeing that AI agents are moving from just chatting → doing

So, the missing gap was autonomous settlement: paying for data, tools, inference, bandwidth, storage, and real-world services without humans clicking “confirm.”

The x402 whitepaper is explicit that it’s designed for agentic + M2M payments with instant/low-fee settlement using stablecoins like USDC.

Big players behind this and pushing it

1) @coinbase + @Cloudflare (focuses on distribution)

Coinbase and Cloudflare launched the x402 Foundation, and Cloudflare added x402 support to its Agents SDK and MCP server ecosystem. They’re trying to make “agent pays for tool” a default developer pattern, not just a niche crypto thing.

And in the most recent AMA @jessepollak mentioned payments and distribution being one of the key focus for @base.

2) Solana’s pitch for @x402 is focused on micropayments needing cheap + fast finality

Solana is openly positioning itself as an ideal settlement layer for x402 because of very low fees and fast finality and they’re already quoting meaningful usage growth (including “over 500,000 weekly transactions” and ~10,000% monthly growth).

Dune-tracked activity has already gone up massively:
- ~500,000 x402 transactions in Oct to 1.7M today
- A record $332,000 daily volume in Oct, though volume has gone much smaller now

This will only continue to grow being the only agentic crossover combining both web2 and web3 tech.

Twitter: https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/2002738182589444561

FULL Article: https://threadingontheedge.substack.com/p/x402-in-one-line

2025 token launches have mostly been a bloodbath

Tracked 118 TGE launches this year and compared today’s FDV vs opening:
• 84.7% (100/118) are below TGE valuation
• This means ~4 out of 5 launches are below their opening valuation
• Median token is -71% FDV (-67% MC) from launch
• Only 15% are green vs TGE

TGE isn’t early anymore reee

Full data: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PF7rDVcIzUdlJF5eMdP4RQLl5dGxwHAnY4WdeV2reNE/edit?usp=sharing

https://x.com/ahboyash/status/2002363360327704834

Polymarket Fed Dashboard page Guide

https://x.com/gavelsvtw/status/2002001943493787988

The Return of Feudal Markets

Under the Feudal system, most land in the Kingdom belongs to the King and some to the Church.

The U.S. has effectively moved onto an S&P standard, where policy, liquidity, and institutional incentives are increasingly optimized to prevent a meaningful drawdown in asset prices, producing a stable-looking index, and an unstable society.

You can run an economy for different outcomes
One of the most useful ideas in a conversation I had earlier was that, an economy can be “run” to maximize different objectives, low inflation, full employment, middle-class wages, export competitiveness, or asset prices.

The claim here is I’ve chosen asset prices.

Because the modern system’s feedback loops punish the alternatives:

Wage growth → inflation risk → higher rates → duration assets + real estate wobble

Equity wobble → wealth effect + tax receipts wobble → fiscal stress → policy reaction function activates

Result: “do enough so Main Street doesn’t fall off a cliff, but not enough to let it truly win.”

X: https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/2003124113943261227

FULL Article: https://threadingontheedge.substack.com/p/the-return-of-feudal-markets

one of the best performing tokens this year

₿elieve

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/2003341365086945666

We Read 500+ Pages of Reports So You Don't Have To: The Ultimate 2026 Crypto Outlook

https://x.com/Eli5defi/status/2003481972635762801

an incredible read by @Eli5defi on the overview but i wanted you to ask yourself one question going into 2026, who owns the flow?

i strongly believe that winners will:
> not be who has the best tech.
> not be who has the loudest narrative.
> its who controls distribution,, and can be trusted at scale.

in these 500 pages of 2026 outlooks, the consistent insight is showing that crypto is getting absorbed into finance and finance is a flow business.

my 4 strong themes:

1) the 4-year cycle is no longer a strategy, its a lagging indicator.
too many new exogenous drivers (ETF plumbing, stablecoin velocity, regulatory regimes, AI capex/liquidity) dominate the old miner-supply narrative. If your mental model is still halving → alt season, you’re trading a meme.

2) tokens are being forced to grow up.
“ownership coins” is changing how we view tokens. if a protocol behaves like a business (fees, margins, product distribution), the asset that represents it can’t be a vibes-based governance token forever. either it evolves into something with explicit, durable economics (fee share, buybacks, burns, rights), or it gets repriced as what it functionally is: a speculative instrument with weak linkage to fundamentals.

3) agentic finance is real, but what about KYA
we’re moving from trustless execution to trust-minimized delegation. if agents become persistent economic actors, crypto rails make sense because they’re always-on, programmable, and natively composable. the hard part is that once agents transact, finance stops being “human intent + click” and becomes delegated, machine-executed authority.

the winners will be whoever builds the missing middle layer: agent identity + permissions + policy enforcement + monitoring + rollback / recovery

4) super-app consolidation is inevitable
crypto today still looks like an ecosystem of tools, ro the market compresses to equilibrium. so the end state looks like:
- a few consumer + capital aggregation surfaces (super-apps)
- with many interchangeable protocols behind them
- and stablecoins as the interface layer

distribution will consolidate into a few surfaces and everything else becomes backend.

own the flow because if you don’t, you’re exit liquidity for someone who does.

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/2003879260453507338

I think @arndxt_xo thesis is sharp and uncomfortable:

The U.S. has effectively moved onto an "S&P Standard."

In this modern feudalism, asset prices are the protected class (the Lords), while labor and the real economy function as the shock absorbers (the Vassals).

The system’s feedback loops have been rewired so that wage growth is punished as "inflationary," while asset price wobbles trigger immediate policy rescue.

Why this matters now:

— Volatility Suppression
Policy isn't designed to stop recessions; it's designed to stop disorderly asset repricing. This keeps the index stable but makes society brittle.

— The AI Paradox
As highlighted, the AI boom is currently benefiting hardware and supply chains first. For the numbers to work long-term, we may see massive labor compression, expanding margins while thinning the consumer base.

— The Crypto Hedge (and maybe why I am still bullish on crypto for long-term)
Amidst this "feudal" stagnation, the crypto market acts as the only distinct exit valve.

Last week, we witnessed significant shifts in institutional behavior:

- Visa settled nearly $3.5 billion in $USDC
- @SoFi launched a bank-issued stablecoin
- Bhutan held $1 billion in BTC.

These moves indicate that capital is constructing parallel financial pathways.

Long live Crypto and DeFi.

https://x.com/Eli5defi/status/2004417411672617098

This is the most crowded bull market setup of the cycle.

I caught the last local top with this signal.

Alt OI > BTC OI is a local-top signal, not a start of a bull.

Here are the obvious signs:

- Alt OI > BTC OI = leverage migrated down the cap curve

- Thin spot liquidity + perp positioning = small shock → forced de-risking.

- 2025 ≠ 2021
2021: liquidity expansion → broad beta bid.
2025: fiat erosion → selective flows into quality + attention.

- FOMC is the catalyst

Some tell tale signs right now

- BTC $88.9k, still 30% below the Oct peak ($125k).
Price is holding up while positioning risk has been rebuilding.

- Spot BTC ETFs have flipped to net outflows into year-end.
They remove incremental demand and make price more sensitive to macro volatility (because there’s less passive absorption when sellers show up).

- US 10Y ~4.15%
High risk-free yields raise the hurdle rate for everything that’s effectively long-duration / long-liquidity (most alts).

- Stablecoin supply is huge (~$308–310B), but their flow matters more.
But if supply is flat/down near the highs, it often means we’re seeing rotation within crypto rather than fresh fiat inflow. The real green light is re-accelerating net issuance + rising velocity (stablecoins actually moving)

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/2004438013217329572