There is a significant chance of Russia launching a large-scale, combined missile and drone attack on Ukraine tonight.

So far, launches of Geran-2 drones have been recorded (not confirmed) from Millerovo Airbase, Rostov Oblast, and Primorsko-Akhtarsk Airbase, Krasnodar Krai. Additional preparations for launches of Gerna-2/3 drones has been recorded from Navlya Test Site, Bryansk Oblast.

Due to recent accumulations of Geran-2 drones at Millerovo Airbase, the numbers of drones launched from here alone could reach as high as 100.

Additionally, due to recent deliveries of missiles, there is a high threat of Iskander-M ballistic missile and Iskander-K cruise missile launches from OTRK installations in Bryansk Oblast, Kursk Oblast, and Voronezh Oblast.

The current approximate locations of Russian Geran-2/Gerbera drones in Ukrainian airspace. ~6 drones are currently detected.

Possible repeated launches of Gerans from Primorsko-Akhtarsk Airbase, Krasnodar Krai.

General movements of Russian Geran-2 drones. Currently, ~3 drones are detected in Ukrainian airspace.

General movements of Russian Geran-2 drones. Currently, ~9 drones are detected in Ukrainian airspace.

Pokrovsk'e, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, is under very heavy artillery and KAB shelling right now

Explosions were heard in Sumy City from Italmas drone strikes

Sumy

A Russian FPV drone launched from a Molniya-1 mother drone is currently over Kharkiv.

Explosions in Koriukivka, Chernihiv Oblast. Gerans.

Explosions in Konotop, Sumy Oblast. The city is under attack from Russian Geran-2 drones.

Tonight, there is a high probability of a large-scale, combined Russian missile and drone attack being carried out on Ukraine. Here's what we know so far:

There are currently 7 Tu-95MS stationed at Olenya Airbase, Murmansk Oblast. 6-7 of these are equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles and are expected to take part in any combat sorties.

At Engels-2 Airbase, Murmansk Oblast, there are 2-3 Tu-160 strategic bombers equipped with Kh-101s. They are likely to take part in any combat sorties. The Tu-95MS and 1 other Tu-160 stationed there are there for training purposes.

1 frigate of the "Admiral Makarov" type, 1 frigate of the "Admiral Essen" type, and 1 submarine of the "Varshavyanka" type are equipped with Kalibr cruise missiles, and stationed at Novorossiysk Naval Base, Krasnodar Krai. They are likely going to take part in any missile attacks.

3-4 MiG-31Ks stationed at Savasleika Airbase, Nizhny Novgorod Oblast, are equipped with Kinzhal hypersonic aeroballistic missiles. They may take part in any combat sorties. The 2 other MiG-31Ks equipped with missiles stationed at Akhtubinsk Airbase, Astrakhan Oblast, are not expected to take part.

At least four Iskander OTRK installations have received deliveries of Iskander-M ballistic missiles and/or Iskander-K cruise missiles. These are in Bryansk Oblast, Kursk Oblast, Voronezh Oblast, and Rostov Oblast. Their usage tonight is possible but not confirmed.

After weeks of accumulation, there are over 500 Geran-2, Geran-3, and Gerbera drones ready to launch from 10-11 different directions surrounding Ukraine.

The chances of a missile attack taking place tonight is not 100%, but it is likely (~75%).

Will cover news to do with Gerans here as usual up until any missile attacks.

General movements of Russian Geran-2 drones. Currently, ~9 drones are detected in Ukrainian airspace.

General movements of Russian Geran-2 drones. Currently, ~16 drones are detected in Ukrainian airspace.

A Su-34 covered by a Su-35 are flying to their launch lines in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

KAB launches, possibly to Zaporizhzhia City

High threat to Zaporizhzhia City

These could be Grom-E1 rocket-powered glide-bombs. Monitoring.

The KABs are flying towards the Zaporizhzhia-Dnipropetrovsk border, southwest of Zaporizhzhia city