One of the Tu-95MS bombers flew to Diaghilev Airbase in Ryazan Oblast. The other went to Olenya as expected.

An Israeli drone strike targeted a car on the Abu Al-Aswad Road in southern Lebanon in an apparent assassination. The driver of the car was killed.

UNICEF reports that Israel has killed 45 children in Gaza over the past 48 hours.

Last night, a Russian Tu-160 redeployed from Belaya Airbase in Irkutsk Oblast to Engels-2 Airbase in Saratov Oblast. This is the 5th strategic bomber to be redeployed today, which is very unusual.

Ukrainian sources report that Russian FPV drones have begun actively striking the Dobropillya - Kramatorsk highway, over 29km from the frontline. This would mean that the drones are flying for at least 40km.

Multiple Ukrainian military vehicles have already been hit.

The Israeli Army Radio reports that a Hezbollah field commander was the target of the assassination strike earlier.

The Israeli Army Radio reports that in the coming weeks, the IDF will establish a new division on the border with Jordan called the "Gilead" Division, which will be deployed to the Wadi Araba area in southern Israel. They cited security threats in the area. An incident occurred earlier today where a man was arrested at the border after trying to infiltrate Israel from Jordan.

A Russian Tu-22M3 strategic bomber departed from Shaykovka Airbase in Kaluga Oblast. It is likely redeploying to Olenya Airbase in Murmansk Oblast after being equipped with Kh-22 cruise missiles.

We're getting to one of those times of the year again where a large Russian missile strike on Ukraine is clearly imminent. Let me break the movements down for you, but first - I will write some background information for those who don't know as much about the patterns the strategic bombers take. You can skip to the three hashtags further down in this post if you already know about this.

There are 6 Airbases which are actively used by Russia for strategic bombers. They are: Olenya, Engels-2, Diaghilev, Shaykovka, Belaya, and Ukrainsk.

Olenya (Murmansk Oblast) is used as a staging ground for Tu-95s. The bombers fly here first, before using this airbase to fly south to the launch lines in Saratov, Volgograd and Astrakhan Oblasts, where they launch the missiles to Ukraine from.

Engels-2 Airbase (Saratov Oblast) is the original airbase used for equipping the bombers, specifically Tu-95s and Tu-160s, with Kh-101 cruise missiles. They will fly here, often from Olenya, before making a return trip to Olenya. Rarely, they will use this airbase as a staging ground for a missile strike, but only if bombers also depart from Olenya and it will usually be with Tu-160s. Tu-95s and Tu-160s also regularly conduct training missions from here.

Diaghilev Airbase is usually just used for bombers which aren't going to Olenya or Engels and isn't used as a staging ground.

Shaykovka Airbase (Kaluga Oblast) is used only for Tu-22M3 bombers. Many are stationed there, most of which are out of service, however this airbase is used to equip the ones which fly there with Kh-22 cruise missiles, before they make the return trip to Olenya.

Belaya Airbase (Irkutsk Oblast) used to only be used for training missions and general service for the bombers but has more recently began being used to equip Tu-95Ms and Tu-160s with Kh-101 cruise missiles. This is where a lot of the bombers have been deploying to recently.

Ukrainsk Airbase (Amur Oblast) is used for Tu-95s and Tu-160s for training purposes, usually for young pilots. Last year some Tu-95s moved to and from here for some temporary deployment reasons, but nothing important has been observed since.

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Now for the recent developments. Significant movements of strategic bombers have been observed lately, including:

1 Tu-95MS bomber redeployed from Engels-2 to Belaya, bringing the total number of Tu-95s there to 8. It was already equipped with Kh-101 cruise

2 Tu-95MS bombers redeployed from Olenya to Engels-2. They were both equipped with Kh-101 missiles, before flying back north. One landed at Olenya and another landed at Diaghilev, although it's possible that the latter has since flown back to Olenya. Olenya airbase currently has 2 Tu-95s, Diaghilev has 3, while Engels-2 has only 3 Tu-160s. This is the first time in a long time that Engels-2 has had no Tu-95s stationed there.

2 IL-76MD military transport aircraft landed at Engels-2 over the past 24 hours, with the cargo consisting of Kh-101 cruise missiles.

At Belaya Airbase, 4 Tu-95s were equipped with Kh-101s following the flight of multiple Il-76 and multiple An-26 aircraft to the airbase. That number increased to 5 since the Tu-95MS arrived from Engels-2 last night.

1 Tu-160 redeployed from Belaya to Engels-2, possibly after being equipped with Kh-101 missiles.

1 Tu-22M3 redeployed from Olenya to Shaykovka. It has since taken off from Shaykovka and is flying over Lipetsk Oblast at the time of writing. It was likely equipped with Kh-22 cruise missiles after a An-12 cargo plane landed at Shaykovka yesterday.

Due to this large-scale activity, I will begin posting more frequently on the probabilities of an impending Russian missile strike, as well as general movement. In my opinion, it's likely that a big attack will occur in the next 10 days.

First video from the Kramatorsk - Dobropillya highway. One truck has been hit by a Russian FPV drone, confirming the report by Ukrainian sources.

Toretsk.

Russian forces are outflanking Ukraine's last positions in the northern part of the city and are pushing from the territory of the summer camp. One attack was repelled; however recent Russian reinforcements make the situation very difficult for the AFU.

Following the localised breakthrough from Druzhba to Dyliivka, Russian forces captured most of Dyliivka. The rest of the village is in the grey zone. Ukrainian FPV drones are working on the lost positions.

The last parts of Zabalka (southern Toretsk) are being cleared. The district will fall soon. The private sector in the north of the city is also almost captured. Ukrainian positions are covered by the nearby terykons.

Despite Ukrainian success northwest of Toretsk, the Russians will probably outflank these positions and force a withdrawal. The battles for the main part of the city will probably end soon.

Russian forces have recaptured the village of Dachenske, Pokrovsk direction, Donetsk Oblast.

Pre-war population: ~183

The Saraya al-Quds Brigades (Armed wing of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad) shot down an Israeli IAI "Super Heron" strategic drone over Gaza City.

The Super Heron is worth at least $5 million per unit.

Israel Hayom reports that 2 hours ago, ceasefire negotiations resumed between the Israeli and Hamas delegations in the Qatari capital of Doha. Hamas representative Mahmoud Mardawi stated in an interview with Saudi outlet Al-Arabiya that the current negotiations are taking place without preconditions, and are not based on previous Israeli proposals.

Russian forces have captured the village of Bahatyr, Komar direction, Donetsk Oblast.

Pre-war population: ~1,700.

This morning, a Russian Tu-160 redeployed from Engels-2 Airbase in Saratov Oblast to Belaya Airbase in Irkutsk Oblast.

Engels-2 now has 2 Tu-160s while Belaya has gone back up to 8 Tu-160s.

Saudi media reports that Hamas leader, Muhammad Sinwar has been assassinated in an Israeli airstrike, along the with commander of Hamas' Rafah Brigade.