Power outages were reported in parts of Kharkiv.

Update: Information is coming in that the Kharkiv Tractor plant was hit by 2-4 KABs.

I’ve noticed that Russia’s Shahed attacks have become more regular (to the point of being every single day) and much larger (probably about twice the size than they were 2 months ago).

They are also targeting Kyiv more and more often.

This might be a prelude to a larger campaign on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure before winter sets

Ukrainian MP Maryana Bezuglaya stated in her Telegram channel that she has information that Ukrainian commander-in-chief Syrskyi plans to withdraw the 72nd mechanised brigade from Vuhledar.

The 72nd brigade is well known for its successful defence of Vuhledar from front-on attacks for over 2 years, notably including the repelling of the 2023 Russian winter offensive on the town.

Some sources claimed that it is being sent to Kursk, but this is currently unconfirmed.

Reports from Russian and Ukrainian sources suggest that Russian forces have captured the villages of Dolynivka and Halytsynivka in the Ukrainsk direction.

This would mean that Russian forces have established a solid bridgehead on the southern bank of the Vovcha river and may attempt to advance down both banks of it. It would also make assault operations on Ukrainsk much easier for the Russians.

Geolocated footage confirms that Russian forces have captured the rest of Karlivka and the Ukrainian positions on "the peninsula".

Due to the quick Russian progress along the western bank of the Vovcha river, Ukrainian forces conducted a hasty withdrawal from their positions on "the peninsula" in order to avoid being cut off at the chokehold. They held a defence for a couple of days in fortifications west of the Peninsula before being pushed back to the western dachas of Karlivka by a Russian advance from the north.

As for Karlivka itself, Russian forces stormed it from the eastern dachas, capturing the medical centre and entering the main part of the village. The AFU was forced to conduct a fighting withdrawal due to a lack of ammunition. The lack of ammunition was caused by the cutting of the E50 highway which was the main supply route for the garrison stationed in Karlivka.

When Russian forces captured Memryk and advanced on Halytsynivka and Ukrainsk, Ukrainian forces had to finally withdraw south as the last remaining supply route runs through Halytsynivka. This also resulted in the capture of the Karlivka filtration station along with the nearby treelines.

Geolocated footage indicates that Russian forces have advanced from positions on the northern bank of the reservoir on the Sukhi Yaly river to the Shakhtar dachas.

Russian infantry managed to clear the dachas within a day or two and are now approaching the O0532 road in another direction. If they are able to cross the road and flatten out the frontline on both banks of the river, then it will support the advance on Katerynivka and allow for assault operations on Antonivka.

I also expect that the rest of the Ukrainian salient south of Pobieda will be closed in the near future.

Russian forces have likely advanced in the direction of Vodyane, and have reportedly come within 400m of the eastern outskirts.

It appears that my prediction that Russian forces will go for Vodyane before Vuhledar in order to prevent the AFU from maintaining partial fire control over the O0532 road was true.

Once Vodyane falls, the last of these tactical heights will fall to the Russians.

Colours for the map:
Red = confirmed Russian control
Purple = likely Russian control

Just realised that this footage is from Kharkiv. Apologies!

Reliable reports suggest that Russian forces have likely advanced and captured the village of Halytsynivka in the Ukrainsk direction. Some sources are already reporting that fighting is ongoing for Zhelanne Pershe.

The 15th operational recognition brigade of the national guard was reportedly deployed to Selydove. As this brigade was dismantled after suffering heavy losses near Robotyne, only a few hundred soldiers out of the 2,000 remaining were sent. I'm not sure what they would be considered to be a part of.

A KAB was launched at Kharkiv. An explosion was reported in the suburbs of the city.

Another explosion.

A KAB was also launched at Sumy. An explosion was reported in the suburbs of the city.

It is reported that following the withdrawal of the 72nd mechanized brigade from Vuhledar, the 110th mechanized brigade has been redeployed there.

The 110th brigade previously fought near Avdiivka in the Novokalynove - Novooleksandriivka area. After retreating from these villages + Keramik and Arkhanhelske, it was withdrawn to the rear for a short replenishment.

This reported deployment to Vuhledar is likely to plug the hole there after the 72nd brigade got withdrawn and possibly deployed to Pokrovsk to prop up the defence near the city.

Keep in mind that none of this information has been confirmed yet.

Loud explosions over Belgorod

A fire was started at an energy infrastructure facility as the result of a Ukrainian drone strike in the Konakovsky District of the Tver Region.

The Ukrainian formations in the Nevelske-Krasnohorivka salient are going to be cut off in the next few days if they don't withdraw now. They only have one remaining supply route left, significantly complicating logistics. Russian forces - who have likely captured the village of Halytsynivka - are now focusing on advancing down the eastern bank of the Vovcha river in order to cut off the road.

To do this they will need to go through Zhelanne Persha and reach Zhelanne Druhe. Reports are already coming in of battles in the first houses of Zhelanne Persha. I expect Ukraine will attempt to withdraw from this salient in the next week.