Judging by recent movements in Russia and shipments of missiles to airbases, there is an increased threat of Iskander-M ballistic missile launches from OTRK installations in Bryansk, Kursk and Voronezh Oblasts in the next 48 hours.

The installations in Bryansk Oblast (Northeast of Kliintsy and near Bryansk City, among others) are primarily used to target Kyiv Oblast. The installations near Liski, Voronezh Oblast often target Kyiv too, but can also target Pavlohrad, Dnipro, Kremenchuk and Poltava. As for the ones in Kursk Oblast, they generally target Sumy and Poltava Oblasts.

The threat of launches from installations at the Kuzimsky Tank Training Ground in Taganrog, Rostov Oblast, and elsewhere near Taganrog, as well as from the various installations in Crimea (Armyansk, Simferopol, Yevpatoriya, Dzhankoi, etc) is lesser, but also higher than usual.

As many as 600 Geran-2 drones may be launched by Russia tonight.

So far, launches have been recorded from the following areas (not all are confirmed):

Primorsko Akhtarsk Airbase, Krasnodar Krai.
Shatalovo Airbase, Smolensk Oblast.
Navlya Test Site, Bryansk Oblast.
Khalino Airbase, Kursk Oblast.
Tsumbulova Test Site, Oryol Oblast.
Cape Chauda, Crimea.
Millerovo Airbase, Rostov Oblast.
Eastern Donetsk Oblast.

The majority of drones are expected to be launched from Millerovo and Shatalovo Airbases, and repeated launches from any of these aforementioned areas is expected.

Interestingly, a new launch point in Donetsk Oblast is now being used. This is to account for significantly increasing production rates of Gerans.

Additionally, launches of Kh-101 cruise missiles from Tu-95s which are currently believed to be redeploying to accompany the drones is possible.

Over the past few days, Ukrainian officials (including Zelensky) have reported on Russian DRG activity on the approaches to Pokrovsk, however, today reports from Ukrainian telegram channels corroborate these claims.

Reports suggest that attacks on Pokrovsk are taking place from three main directions: Zvirove, Pishchane and Shevchenko. There are rumours that Russian soldiers (likely DRGs) infiltrated ~3.6km into Ukrainian-controlled territory, entering Jubilee Park, as outlined on the map.

Russian forces have recaptured the village of Popiv Yar, Kostyantynivka direction, Donetsk Oblast.

Pre-war population: ~120
Total land area: ~0.50km²

There are currently ~50 Geran-2 drones in Ukrainian airspace. The launches from Kursk, Donetsk and Millerovo did not take place.

Most Gerans are flying to Izyum (Kharkiv Oblast) from the border with Donetsk Oblast, to Zavodske (Poltava Oblast) from the north, and from Dnipropetrovsk Oblast towards Donetsk Oblast.

Russian strategic comms for Tu-95MS bombers have been activated. There will likely be a missile attack involving Kh-101 cruise missiles tonight.

3 Tu-95s are currently equipped with missiles at Olenya Airbase in Murmansk Oblast. Additional bombers may be equipped at Engels-2 Airbase in Saratov Oblast.

Its likely that 2 Tu-95s and 2 Tu-160s are also equipped with missiles at Engels-2 Airbase. MiG-31Ks are also equipped with Kinzhal hypersonic ballistic missiles at Akhtubinsk and Savasleika Airbases.

Keep in mind, there is also a heightened threat of Iskander launches tonight as I reported earlier.

5 (!) IL-76MD military transport aircraft landed at Rostov Airbase in Rostov Oblast yesterday. The cargo consists of Iskander-M ballistic missiles for OTRK installations at the Kuzemsky Tank Training Ground, and other areas around the city of Taganrog. Its unlikely that these will be used in tonight's combined missile attack on Ukraine.

3 Russian Kalibr carriers are active in the waters of the Sea of Azov. They have been present there for around a week. They are likely equipped with Kalibr cruise missiles, although it is unclear if they will be used tonight.

The total possible salvo is 24 missiles.

Tu-95MS radio activity continues to be recorded for bombers stationed at Olenya Airbase in Murmansk Oblast.

Currently there are around 90 Geran-2 drones in Ukrainian airspace.

2-3 Tu-95s have departed from Olenya Airbase, flying south towards the launch lines. I will write a little later on the expected arrival times for the bombers to each set of launch lines.

Currently 2-3 Tu-95s are flying south over the Republic of Karelia towards the city of Petrozadovsk. If they take the usual route, they will reach the launch lines in the following amount of time:

Mokshansky District, Penza Oblast - 2 hrs 25 mins.
Engels District, Saratov Oblast - 2 hrs 40 mins.
Kalachyovksy District, Volgograd Oblast - 3 hrs 5 mins.
Limansky District, Astrakhan Oblast (Caspian Sea) - 3 hrs 45 mins.

However, for the last 2 attacks from Olenya Airbase, the bombers flew a different route, changing course in Yaroslavl Oblast to fly to a new set of launch lines in/near Nizhny Novgorod Oblast. It should be much easier to determine if this happens for this attack and future attacks though.

One Russian submarine of the "Varshavyanka" project has been deployed to the waters of the Black Sea from Novorossiysk Port. The total possible salvo increases to 30 Kalibr cruise missiles.

3 Tu-95s are confirmed to be airborne. These were the only ones stationed at Olenya prior to take-off.

Radio activity for strategic bombers stationed at Engels-2 Airbase in Saratov Oblast has been recorded. Departures are expected in the next hour, although it's unclear if this activity relates to Tu-95s, Tu-160s or both.

Currently 3 Tu-95s and 2 Tu-160s are known to be stationed at Engels-2. 2 Tu-95s and as many as 2 Tu-160s at Engels-2 are known to be equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles.