There is a possible threat of a large-scale Russian missile attack tonight. Nothing is certain, and nothing significant has been recorded, but there is an increased threat.

I will update in the morning (NZ time).

The next combined missile and drone attack will probably take place tonight. 3 frequencies are active, including two command and control signals between Engels-2 Airbase and Olenya Airbase with Moscow.

While no combat related frequency activity has been observed yet, this is because Russia has switched to winter frequencies since November 1, and due to changes in daylight hours, departures of Tu-95MS strategic bombers will take place later than previously.

Currently, there are a minimum of 6 Tu-95MS known to be equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles. 3 are stationed at Olenya Airbase in Murmansk Oblast, and interestingly, the 3 which were previously stationed at Engels-2 Airbase have been redeployed / are redeploying to Diaghilev Airbase, Ryazan Oblast.

As for the Tu-160 strategic bombers, 1 is airborne from Engels-2 Airbase, redeploying to Diaghilev airbase in a group with 2 of the Tu-95MS. 2 others stationed at Engels-2 Airbase are known to be equipped with Kh-101 missiles.

As for Kalibr-carriers, 1 "Admiral Makarov" frigate, 1 "Buyan-M" corvette, and 1 "Varshavyanka" submarine, are now equipped with Kalibr cruise missiles.

They can launch a total of 24 Kalibrs.

As for Geran-2 drones, launches have been recorded (not all confirmed) from the following launch points:

Khalino Airbase, Kursk Oblast (x3).
Millerovo Airbase, Rostov Oblast (x2)
Hvardiiske Training Ground, Crimea.
Navlua Test Site, Bryansk Oblast.
Tsumbulova Test Site, Oryol Oblast.
Shatalovo Airbase, Smolensk Oblast.
Primorsko-Akhtarsk Airbase, Krasnodar Krai.

Preparations for launches are ongoing at multiple other launch sites. A minimum of 500 Geran-2 drones is expected tonight, and Geran-3 jet drones could be launched from Navlya Test Site, Bryansk Oblast.

As for MiG-31K fighters, 4-8 are equipped with Kinzhal hypersonic aeroballistic missiles at Savasleika Airbase, Nizhny Novgorod Oblast, and are expected to be launched tonight.

Earlier, 1 Russian Iskander-M ballistic missile launched from Taganrog, Rostov Oblast, impacted a target near Shevchenkove, Kharkiv Oblast.

An Israeli airstrike targeted a vehicle in the Palestinian-populated Ain al-Hilweh Refugee Camp in Sidon, southwestern Lebanon.

According to the Lebanese Ministry of Health, at least four people were killed.

1 IL-76MD cargo plane landed at Taganrog-Central Airbase, Rostov Oblast. The cargo consists of Iskander-M ballistic missiles, which are now being transported by road to OTRK installations in the vicinity of Taganrog.

This is the third cargo plane to land in Rostov Oblast in the past two days.

The IDF stated that they carried out 3 airstrikes on the Ain al-Hilweh Refugee Camp targeted a Hamas training compound.

11 people have been killed and 60 others wounded. The death toll continues to rise.

The death toll has risen to 21.

94 others have been wounded.

No Tu-95MS have departed from Olenya Airbase. Ukrainian monitors are being schizo again.

We likely wont see departures for another 2-3 hours.

Russian forces have captured the village of Hai, Pokrovsk'e direction, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.

Pre-war population: 28.
Total land area: ~0.36 km².

Russian forces have captured the village of Platonivka, northern flank of Siversk, Donetsk Oblast.

Pre-war population: ~42.
Total land area: ~0.21 km².

Russian forces have captured the village of Dvorichanske, Velykyi Burluk direction, Kharkiv Oblast.

Pre-war population: ~351.
Total land area: ~0.50 km².

According to Israeli Channel 12, the strike targeted a number of Hamas senior officials. Both Israeli Channel 12 and Lebanese media report that the attack failed, and that no officials were killed.

One more Tu-95MS redeployed from Engels-2 Airbase to Diaghilev Airbase. This brings the total number of bombers stationed at Diaghilev to 9, at least 4 of which are equipped with missiles.

Currently, ~50 Geran-2 drones are detected in Ukrainian airspace. New ones are flying in.

Drones are attacking Kharkiv and Odesa cities.