Update on Russian preparations for the next large-scale, combined missile attack on Ukraine:

Yesterday, 1 Tu-160 strategic bombers redeployed from Ukrainka Airbase, Amur Oblast, to Engels-2 Airbase, Saratov Oblast. It is unlikely to be equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles, as another Tu-160 redeployed from Engels-2 Airbase to Ukrainka Airbase, suggesting a rotation was carried out for training purposes, as this bomber has been stationed at Engels-2 for a long time and was only ever used for training.

2 Tu-95MS and 1 Tu-160 landed at Engels-2 Airbase just now after redeploying from Ukrainka airbase and will also be equipped with Kh-101 missiles. The 2 Tu-95MS will likely make a flight to Olenya Airbase, Murmansk Oblast, in the next 36 hours.

Another IL-76MD cargo plane, along with an An-26 cargo plane landed at Rostov Airbase. The cargo consists of additional Iskander-M ballistic missiles, which will be delivered to OTRK installations near Taganrog, Rostov Oblast.

Remember, 2 Iskanders were launched from Taganrog last night at a target in Berestyn, Kharkiv Oblast. It's also possible (but unlikely in my opinion) that a portion of these Iskanders from Rostov Airbase are being delivered to OTRK installations at Millerovo Airbase, Rostov Oblast.

New deliveries of at least 150 Geran-2 drones have been made to the launch sites at Millerovo Airbase, Rostov Oblast, and Navlya Test Site, Bryansk Oblast, via rail. Accumulation of drones at launch points surrounding Ukraine that have been allocated for this upcoming attack will be over 400 now.

One "Buyan-M" Corvette was equipped with up to 8 Kalibr cruise missiles at Novorossiysk Naval Base, Krasnodar Krai. No other Kalibr carriers are known to be equipped with missiles, so if the upcoming attack occurs in the next two days, it's unlikely that Kalibrs will be used

One MiG-31K fighter carried out rare, long-range training from Savasleika Airbase, Nizhny Novgorod Oblast. An IL-76M tanker from Diaghilev Airbase, Ryazan Oblast, took part in refueling the aircraft.

Currently, there are 8 MiG-31Ks stationed at Savasleika Airbase. Their equipment status is unknown, but likely only a portion are equipped with Kinzhal missiles. The 2 MiG-31Ks at Akhtubinsk Airbase, Astrakhan Oblast, are not equipped with missiles.

Right now, there are 3 Tu-95MS at Olenya Airbase, 3 Tu-95MS at Engels-2 Airbase, and 5 Tu-160s at Engels-2 Airbase. Currently confirmed to be equipped / are being equipped with missiles are: 6 Tu-95MS and 3 Tu-160s.

The next large-scale missile attack is unlikely to take place tonight, but there is an increased threat for Wednesday night / Thursday morning, and the three nights after that.

⚡🇷🇺 Kommersant: Russia’s United Aircraft Corporation (OAK) has delivered two fifth-generation Su-57 stealth fighters to an undisclosed foreign customer. OAK CEO Vadim Badeha stated that the aircraft have already entered combat duty, are performing well, and the buyer is satisfied.

The announcement comes as Russia showcased the export version Su-57E and the upgraded Yak-130M at the Dubai Airshow 2025. This marks the first confirmed export delivery of the Su-57.

@wfwitness

Twitter just realised they almost went a whole week without breaking, so had to quickly fix that.

A car-ramming and stabbing incident has just taken place at Gush Etzion Junction in the Israeli-occupied part of the West Bank.

Three Palestinians took part in the attack and have reportedly all been killed. One woman is in critical condition and unconscious.

Four Israelis are injured. The woman in critical condition was reportedly accidentally shot by IDF security forces as they fired on the Palestinian perpetrators.

1 Tu-95MS departed from Engels-2 Airbase, Saratov Oblast, redeploying to Olenya Airbase, after it was equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles. The other bomber will take off shortly.

Autumn logistics in Ukraine.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk reports that the two suspects for blowing up the Warsaw-Dęblin were Ukrainian citizens, collaborating with Russian intelligence services. Both have reportedly flown back to Belarus.

Russian forces have captured the village of Vesele, Hulyaipole direction, Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

Pre-war population: ~35.
Total land area: ~0.18 km².

There is a possible threat of a large-scale Russian missile attack tonight. Nothing is certain, and nothing significant has been recorded, but there is an increased threat.

I will update in the morning (NZ time).

The next combined missile and drone attack will probably take place tonight. 3 frequencies are active, including two command and control signals between Engels-2 Airbase and Olenya Airbase with Moscow.

While no combat related frequency activity has been observed yet, this is because Russia has switched to winter frequencies since November 1, and due to changes in daylight hours, departures of Tu-95MS strategic bombers will take place later than previously.

Currently, there are a minimum of 6 Tu-95MS known to be equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles. 3 are stationed at Olenya Airbase in Murmansk Oblast, and interestingly, the 3 which were previously stationed at Engels-2 Airbase have been redeployed / are redeploying to Diaghilev Airbase, Ryazan Oblast.

As for the Tu-160 strategic bombers, 1 is airborne from Engels-2 Airbase, redeploying to Diaghilev airbase in a group with 2 of the Tu-95MS. 2 others stationed at Engels-2 Airbase are known to be equipped with Kh-101 missiles.

As for Kalibr-carriers, 1 "Admiral Makarov" frigate, 1 "Buyan-M" corvette, and 1 "Varshavyanka" submarine, are now equipped with Kalibr cruise missiles.

They can launch a total of 24 Kalibrs.

As for Geran-2 drones, launches have been recorded (not all confirmed) from the following launch points:

Khalino Airbase, Kursk Oblast (x3).
Millerovo Airbase, Rostov Oblast (x2)
Hvardiiske Training Ground, Crimea.
Navlua Test Site, Bryansk Oblast.
Tsumbulova Test Site, Oryol Oblast.
Shatalovo Airbase, Smolensk Oblast.
Primorsko-Akhtarsk Airbase, Krasnodar Krai.

Preparations for launches are ongoing at multiple other launch sites. A minimum of 500 Geran-2 drones is expected tonight, and Geran-3 jet drones could be launched from Navlya Test Site, Bryansk Oblast.

As for MiG-31K fighters, 4-8 are equipped with Kinzhal hypersonic aeroballistic missiles at Savasleika Airbase, Nizhny Novgorod Oblast, and are expected to be launched tonight.

Earlier, 1 Russian Iskander-M ballistic missile launched from Taganrog, Rostov Oblast, impacted a target near Shevchenkove, Kharkiv Oblast.

An Israeli airstrike targeted a vehicle in the Palestinian-populated Ain al-Hilweh Refugee Camp in Sidon, southwestern Lebanon.

According to the Lebanese Ministry of Health, at least four people were killed.

1 IL-76MD cargo plane landed at Taganrog-Central Airbase, Rostov Oblast. The cargo consists of Iskander-M ballistic missiles, which are now being transported by road to OTRK installations in the vicinity of Taganrog.

This is the third cargo plane to land in Rostov Oblast in the past two days.