1 "Varshavyanka" submarine has been deployed from Novorossiysk Naval Base to the Black Sea.

It would make sense if there were a missile attack on Ukraine tonight, excluding strategic bombers.

3-4 Tu-22m3 bombers are airborne right now, redeploying back to Belaya Airbase, Irkutsk Oblast.

Keep in mind, my probability reports are primarily based on strategic aviation movement, which is why there can be attacks excluding Kh-101 missiles even when I say they are unlikely.

I will continue to monitor.

There is activity on Russian strategic frequencies, but it is likely related to training/redeployment in western Russia.

We will see.

These movements are really weird. It isn't adding up right now.

It seems that the 4 Tu-95MS from Ukrainka Airbase were already equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles prior to arriving at Diaghilev Airbase this evening.

There are reports of aircraft in the air, but I cannot confirm this right now. It's possible that the Tu-95MS redeployed to Engels-2 airbase instead of Diaghilev.

Meanwhile, mass launches of Geran-2 drones have begun.

As for the frequency activity, they are indeed related to combat operations, but its unclear which airbase command and control in Moscow is communicating with.

Launches of Geran-2 have been reported from the following launch sites:

Tsumbulova Test Site, Oryol Oblast (x2)
Hvariiske Training Ground, Crimea (x2)
Navlya Test Site, Bryansk Oblast (x2)
Khalino Airbase, Kursk Oblast (x2)
Millerovo Airbase, Rostov Oblast (x2)
Primorsko-Akhtarsk Airbase, Krasnodar Krai (x1)

More conflicting reports on Russian strategic bomber movements and activity.

Things will become clearer later on. Any launches of Kh-101 cruise missiles wont take place for at least 7 more hours.

In my opinion, the most likely thing that happened was that 2 of the 4 Tu-95MS were already equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles.

These two landed at Engels-2 Airbase.

The other two landed at Diaghilev Airbase, Ryazan Oblast.

The 2 Tu-95MS from Diaghilev redeployed to Engels-2 Airbase to be equipped with missiles, while the two from Engels-2, redeployed to Diaghilev.

This is only a possibility right now. As I said, these movements are very unusual.

All other signs suggest that a large attack will take place tonight, but nothing is confirmed at this moment.

KAB launches to Kherson City

2+ KABs flying to Dniprovsky District.

Flying to the power plant

Explosions in Kherson. The KAB glide-bombs likely impacted the Kherson Combined Heat and Power Plant (CHP).

Large Ukrainian UAV attack expected on Russia tonight, including Crimea

General movements of Russian Geran-2 drones.

The first large groups of drones are entering Ukrainian airspace.

Currently, there are at least 55 Gerans detected in Ukrainian airspace. More are flying in.

Additionally, 2 drones have entered Moldovan airspace over Transnistria.

Additional activity on Russian strategic frequencies.

New drones are constantly being launched from Khalino Airbase, Kursk Oblast. This launch point was recently expanded to launch more drones in a short amount of time.

The drones are being launched one after another, flying in a chain format at high altitude through Ukraine to the western regions.

Meanwhile, the first drones are transiting through Kyiv Oblast towards the western regions of Ukraine, where missiles will likely attack in the morning.