As usual with these peace plans, I won't really cover them.

This new 20-point plan proposed by Zelensky is based entirely on idealism and only serves as a way to label Russia as unwilling to negotiate. They know Russia won't accept this; the same way Russia knows Ukraine won't accept their demands. It's all informational and is one of the reasons why I constantly say this war will be fought to its conclusion.

Russia is the stronger side and is the side which is currently winning. Attritional warfare doesn't care about morals, your feelings, or what's "right" and "wrong". The stronger side wins and the weaker side loses. It might suck, and it might be a horrible thing to accept for many, but that's just the reality of how this works.

It either side is truly trying to achieve a lasting peace, any realistic agreements need to take into account the battlefield reality, not what either side "deserves" to have. The actual reality on the ground is what influences negotiations, not what people claim is right or wrong morally.

Merry Christmas everyone!

It's now the 25th of December for me in New Zealand, which is quite insane. To those who celebrate it, I hope you have a great time with your family on this holiday occasion.

I'm looking forward to 2026 which I hope will be another great year of reporting for me. Thank you all for following and supporting, it means the world :)

Unlike last year, no large-scale missile attack on Ukraine is expected this Christmas.

However, preparations for the next series of strikes are ongoing:

The 4 MiG-31K fighters which took part in the most recent attack redeployed from Lipetsk-2 Airbase, Lipetsk Oblast to Savasleika Airbase, Nizhny Novgorod Oblast. They will be equipped with Kinzhal hypersonic aeroballistic missiles there.

Part of southwestern Ryazan Oblast’s airspace in the area of the MiG-31K launch lines is currently closed, which means there is a threat of Kinzhal launches for the near future.

The Tu-95MS and Tu-160 strategic bombers which took part in the most recent attack are in the process of being equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles at Engels-2 Airbase and then redeploying to the far east.

There is still an unprecedented accumulation of Geran-2 drones at launch sites surrounding Ukraine, and a large number of Iskander-M ballistic missiles and Iskander-K cruise missiles that are ready be used.

3 Tu-22m3 strategic bombers carried out a scheduled training flight over the eastern Black Sea from Shaykovka Airbase, Kaluga Oblast.

3 Tu-22m3 strategic bombers carried out a scheduled training flight from Olenya Airbase, Murmansk Oblast with the help of an Il-78M tanker for refueling.

This evening, a single Kh-59 cruise missile likely launched from a Su-34 struck the Cherkasy combined heat and power plant. A large fire subsequently broke out.

Possible launches of storm shadow cruise missiles from Kryvyi Rih, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, in the direction of Russian-controlled Kherson Oblast.

4 missiles are detected flying from Nova Kakhovka on a southeastern course.

One of the missiles over Kherson Oblast

S-300 activity from Melitopol, Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

The missiles are flying in the direction of the Sea of Azov.

The Kerch Bridge has been temporarily closed.

Sirens in:

Rostov Oblast
Crimea
Zaporizhzhia Oblast
Kherson Oblast
Krasnodar Krai
Sevastopol

As many as 2 interceptions may have taken place.

2-4 Storm Shadows are now over the Sea of Azov, ~100 km from the Kerch Bridge.

S-400 launches from Taganrog, Rostov Oblast.

~2 more storm shadows are flying past Debaltseve, Luhansk Oblast to Rostov Oblast.

2 missiles in Luhansk Oblast changed course to the south/southeast, flying past Rovenky to Rostov-on-Don

2-4 missiles are flying to Temyruk, Krasnodar Krai. The port there was under attack from UAVs earlier. Russian air defence is working from Krasnodar Krai.

2 missiles changed course to the east, flying past Novocherkassk, Rostov Oblast.