10 km away, flying to Tokari from the northeast

Approximate path

Explosion in Sumy

In the Novopavlivka direction, Russian forces continued to advance and have made important progress in and around Novopavlivka

In the east, Russian forces continued pushing north through the treelines south of Novopavlivka, capturing new positions east and west of the highway. Other assault groups continued expanding their zone of control within the town, capturing new positions in the southern and southeastern streets, approaching the town centre.

In the west, Russian forces managed to complete the capture of the fortified forests northwest of Filiya, securing the last section to the east of Ivanivka.

+ ~7.20 km² in favour of Russia.

Interactive map link: https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/1/edit?hl=en&mid=1thW9kqnDOaS2lAepLhLdzSX8Ur9Sc4k&ll

In the Omelnyk direction, Russian forces continued to advance and have captured the city of Hulyaipole.

In the southeast, following the fall of the city centre and large parts of the western streets, Russian forces advanced further west down the highway and captured the industrial zone. Other forces cleared the remaining residential streets in the northwest of the city. Additionally, Russian forces advanced beyond the city and captured treeline positions to the southwest and continued incrementally advancing through the 2022 fortifications to the south.

In the northwest, Russian forces continued to expand their bridgehead on the western bank of the Haichur River. They improved their positions in the treelines west of Dobropillya, while DRGs infiltrated past the railway line and into the treelines further west. Other assault groups began advancing north up the treelines to Kosivtseve, and entered the village, where fighting is ongoing.

+ ~12.68 km² in favour of Russia.

Interactive map link: https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/1/edit?hl=en&mid=1thW9kqnDOaS2lAepLhLdzSX8Ur9Sc4k&ll

Following the fall of Hulyaipole, I expect the next step of the Russian offensive (which initially started from Vuhledar and is "wrapping around" the southern Ukrainian defences) will be to capture the highest point of the tactical heights west of the city in the area of Zaliznychne.

The fall of Hulyaipole and most of the positions east of the Haichur River means that Russia has effectively reached the end of the unfavourable terrain they have been advancing through since Velyka Novosilka, and opens up opportunities to advance parallel with the tactical heights instead.

This can only be done once Russia establishes a large bridgehead west of the Haichur River, beyond the two tactical bridgeheads they currently hold in the area of Hulyaipole and Kosivtseve. Once this is able to encompass those tactical heights at Zaliznychne and at Ternuvate, the path to outflank the fortress city of Orikhiv from the north will open.

Another thing that I should mention is that the current movements from Stepnohirsk in the direction of the Konka River suggest that the Russians are going to attempt to outflank Orikhiv from both sides.

The terrain here for Ukraine is incredibly unfavourable, and the only thing that prevented a Russian advance into Orikhiv was the extensive fortifications between the city and the infamous village of Robotyne.

This may be part of the reason why Ukraine has brought in reinforcements to the Zaliznychne area, west of Hulyaipole - to prevent the Russians from securing the highest point of the tactical heights and beginning their outflanking maneuver from the east.

As usual, I won't comment on the Zelensky-Trump meeting. It's all theatre, there will be no peace deal.

I continue to assess that none of the sides are prepared to negotiate in good faith, even if they say otherwise publicly.

Stop falling for the same tricks over and over again!

The Ukrainian Special Operations Forces published new footage showing FP-2 drone strikes on Russian rear targets.

Strikes were carried on a Geran-2 storage facility near the city of Makiivka, Donetsk Oblast, and a repair unit for the Russian 1435th Motor Rifle Regiment near Antratsyt, Luhansk Oblast.

There is a high threat of another large-scale, combined Russian missile and drone attack on Ukraine in the next 36 hours.

This attack, if it takes place, will *likely* not include Tu-95MS or Tu-160 strategic bombers, but rather Iskander-M ballistic missiles, Iskander-K cruise missiles, Kinzhal hypersonic aeroballistic missiles, and possibly Kalibr cruise missiles. There is still a possibility of strategic aviation being used, however.

Currently, it is known that at least two MiG-31K fighters are equipped with Kinzhals at Savasleika Airbase, Nizhny Novgorod Oblast. Additionally, Iskander-M and possibly Iskander-K cruise missiles have been delivered to OTRK installations in Taganrog (Rostov Oblast), Khalino Airbase (Kursk Oblast), and other areas recently.

And, of course, an unprecedented accumulation of Geran-2 and Gerbera drones remains at the launch points surrounding Ukraine.

I feel like I should provide some context regarding my extensive coverage of Russian missile attacks, as it's always been one of the main focal points for my account.

Over the last 2 years, I've spent over 1,000 hours covering more than 100 Russian missile and drone attacks on Ukraine live. To my knowledge, I was the first ever OSINTer in the world to provide real-time updates of missile trajectories with maps. But these attacks are only a small part of this war, so why spend so much time and effort covering it?

For me, when I first started covering these attacks, I had less than 50 followers on Twitter. Doing something like this brought attention to my account as no one had seen it in public spaces before. As my reporting got significant more accurate, more and more people tuned into my live updates. This provided me with a lot of motivation to continue covering these attacks, allowing for me to get even more precise and reliable.

This motivation, combined with me finding a lot of interest in these attacks and learning about so much stuff, meant I just never stopped, despite it being such a small portion of this war's events.

More recently, I have frequently been messaged by Ukrainians and people visiting Ukraine thanking me for my coverage as it provided them with knowledge of whether it is safe or not in their respective cities. The Ukrainian Airforce is notoriously slow on updating threats and air raid alerts, which is why far less people use official outlets for this anymore.

So, a combination of these factors means that I don't intend on stopping any time soon, even if it restricts my ability to cover other areas of the war such as political developments. Obviously, real-life factors for me can reduce my ability to cover attacks, but I hope to continue as it's good for my account and good for those watching it.

A big thanks to those behind the scenes who help make this possible. You all know who you are.

3 Tu-22m3 strategic bombers have redeployed from Shaykovka Airbase, Kaluga Oblast, to Engels-2 Airbase, Saratov Oblast. Earlier, an IL-76MD cargo plane landed at Engels-2 Airbase, transporting Kh-32 cruise missiles for the Tu-22m3 bombers.

Engels-2 was the airbase which the Tu-22m3 bombers departed from during the most recent large-scale attack. Therefore, there is a significantly increased threat to Odesa Oblast for the next 36 hours.

Correction: at least one of the Tu-22m3 strategic bombers did not land at Engels-2 Airbase and flew further southwest into Volgograd Oblast.

It is currently flying past Volgograd in the direction of Novorossiysk, Krasnodar Krai, and the waters of the Black Sea.

Last night, Ukraine apparently attempted to strike Moscow with Ukrainian-made Grom-2 ballistic missiles.

Russian sources report that both missiles were shot down by air defence over Tula Oblast. They stated that missile dangers were declared in a number of regions after the missiles were shot down due to the speed at which they were flying, and apparently due to very late detections.

The Tu-22m3 appears to be carrying out a training mission in the eastern Black Sea,

New footage shows Russian drones carrying out deep strikes on Ukrainian targets.

The video shows the following being hit:

- P-19 radar
- 19Zh6 radar
- 79K6 Pelican radar
- Zoopark-3 radar
- P-18 radar
- An-26 cargo plane
- Mi-24 helicopter (apparently a decoy)
- 2 dry cargo ships

I personally don't believe there was any drone attack attempts on Putin's presidential palace.

The Russian MOD claims that they shot down 91 (!) UAVs in Novgorod Oblast flying towards the presidential palace in the region. Not a single Russian monitoring channel reported on any UAV detections in the region during the day, despite their coverage reflecting Russian MOD interception statistics on other regions.

To me, this seems like an attempt at further portraying Ukraine as unwilling to negotiate while not having to carry out any false flag themselves. This kind of activity should be expected from both sides, so as usual, don't believe everything you see at face value.

Those who blindly trust the Russian MOD are as dumb and naive as NAFOids trusting everything that comes from the Ukrainian general staff.

No large attack tonight.

The highest threat is in place for tomorrow, meaning the probability of strategic bombers being used has increased.

Nothing is definite at the moment as some unusual Russian movements have taken place.

It could also be on new years. It's just too difficult to tell right now. I will update you all when I get more concrete information.

In the Stepnohirsk direction, Russian forces continued to advance and have made new progress in two different areas.

In the west, Russian forces continued to advance north through Prymorske. They were able to consolidate in new positions in the southern part of the village, including in a number of three-story buildings. DRGs continued to operate further north in the area of the village centre, and reached its northern streets, while others infiltrated further east through the Pererva Gulley

In the east, Russian forces continued to expand their zone of control northeast of Stepnohirsk, capturing new positions in the treelines west of the gulley leading from Stepnohirsk. Other forces infiltrated further into Lukyanivske, and are engaged in fighting for the residential part of the village. Fighting also continues for the central and northern parts of Stepnohirsk, where a grey-zone remains.

+ ~4.26 km² in favour of Russia.

Interactive map link: https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/1/edit?hl=en&mid=1thW9kqnDOaS2lAepLhLdzSX8Ur9Sc4k&ll