Russia seems to be finalising their preparations for their next large-scale, combined missile and drone attack on Ukraine, which I reported on earlier.

This likely be the "second part" to the most recent attack, as only 3 out of 7 equipped strategic bombers were used. There is strategic aviation activity right now and movements, as well as deliveries of Iskander-M ballistic missiles and possibly Iskander-K cruise missiles to OTRK installations near Ukraine, however the specifics are being clarified. I will make a more in depth post on everything tonight/tomorrow.

In my opinion, based on what I've seen, there is a significant possibility that the attack will take place during tonight and tomorrow morning, but we will see.

Well, already, some of this information has been confirmed.

- 2-3 Tu-95MS strategic bombers are landing at Engels-2 Airbase, Saratov Oblast, after redeploying from Ukrainka Airbase in the far east. They will likely soon fly back north to Olenya which would be their departure point for the attack.

- As many as 4 MiG-31K fighters at Savasleika Airbase have been equipped with Kinzhal hypersonic aeroballsitic missiles. Another 2 may be equipped in the near future.

- 3 surface carriers were equipped with Kalibr cruise missiles at Novorossiysk Naval Base, Krasnodar Krai, some time ago. They have an estimated total salvo of 18 missiles.

- At least 4 Tu-22m3 strategic bombers have been equipped with Kh-22m3 cruise missiles at Dyagilevo Airbase, Ryazan Oblast. Additional Tu-22m3 bombers may have been equipped with missiles at Olenya Airbase, Murmansk Oblast.

- SOME Iskander-M ballistic missiles and possibly Iskander-K cruise missiles have been delivered to OTRK installations in Bryansk Oblast, Rostov Oblast, and possibly Voronezh Oblast. It is unclear if these will be used in this attack, or just for general strikes on separate targets.

- There is also a possibility of 2-4 Tu-160M strategic bombers being used from Ukrainka Airbase in the far east, but there is no reliable information on this right now.

The highest threat is to energy infrastructure in Kyiv City, Kyiv Oblast, and the western regions of Ukraine. If Tu-22m3 bombers are used, Kyiv will almost certainly be hit. Like I said, this is the second part to the last attack.

Knowing this, the most likely time for this attack is tonight and tomorrow morning, but obviously only time will tell.

At least 3 more Geran-4/5 jet drones have impacted Kanatove Airbase. Geran-2 drones are now attacking it, along with another unknown target in Kirovohrad Oblast.

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Russian Lieutenant General Vladimir Alekseev was targeted in an assassination attempt by an unknown assailant in Moscow.

He was shot several times in the back inside a residential building, and has subsequently been hospitalised. His condition is unknown. The shooter has since fled the scene, and a search is underway.

Alekseev is the first deputy head of the GRU, and the deputy of Igor Kostyukov who leads the Russian negotiating team in the UAE.

I’m fairly confident that the next large-scale, combined Russian missile and drone attack on Ukraine will take place tonight.

I’m gonna get some sleep and will update you all later.

Good morning.

One of Russia’s strategic command and control frequencies has been active for a while.

The two Tu-95MS strategic bombers which redeployed from the far east to Engels-2 Airbase have flown back north to Olenya Airbase. Other movements are unconfirmed right now.

There is no activity on any combat frequencies yet. I will update when more information comes available.

Reports of Kalibr carriers exiting Novorossiysk Naval Base, Krasnodar Krai, are false.

The activity is linked to ongoing training exercises of the Black Sea Fleet in the waters south of Kerch.

Well, it seems I was right.

There is activity on a Russian combat frequency. This started around 30 minutes ago. There will most likely be a large-scale, combined Russian missile and drone attack tonight.

Assuming an attack does indeed happen (which is extremely likely), what could be used tonight?

- A minimum of 4 Tu-95MS strategic bombers will take off from Olenya Airbase at least 4 hours from now. They will launch Kh-101 cruise missiles.

- 3 surface carriers (Admiral Makarov/Essen frigates) will likely depart from Novorossiysk Naval Base, Krasnodar Krai, some time in the next 6 hours. They can launch up to 24 Kalibr cruise missiles.

- At least 4 Tu-22m3 strategic bombers could take off from Dyagilevo Airbase, Ryazan Oblast, to launch Kh-22/32 cruise missiles.

- 4-6 MiG-31K fighters could take off from Savasleika Airbase, Nizhny Novgorod Oblast, to launch Kinzhal hypersonic aeroballistic missiles.

- Iskander-M ballistic missiles / Iskander-K cruise missiles could be launched from OTRK installations in Bryansk, Kursk, Voronezh, and Rostov Oblasts.

- Kh-59/69 cruise missiles could be launched from Su-57 fighters, presumably from Kursk/Belgorod Oblast.

- Geran-2/3 drones. Launches have already taken place from at least 6 different locations.

If Tu-22m3s are used, Kyiv Oblast will probably be attacked, however its still unclear if Kyiv will be the main target. There is a high threat to energy infrastructure in the western regions of Ukraine during the night too.

Threat of Kh-59/69 cruise missile launches for Sumy Oblast. A Su-57 is airborne in Kursk Oblast. This is likely the aircraft I warned of earlier.

The Su-57 is flying near the border of Kursk and Oryol Oblasts.

A Russian Gerbera recon drone is carrying out a reconnaissance mission over northwestern Ukraine, currently flying over Volyn Oblast. Other Gerbera was active earlier in Rivne Oblast.

Northwestern Ukraine has seen an increase in Gerbera activity in recent days.

A minimum of 50 Geran-2/Gerbera drones are detected in Ukrainian airspace.

The main flight vectors are shown on the map

The Su-57 is carrying out a patrol.

The Su-57 ended up launching a cruise missile. It was detected earlier, but disappeared. Now it as been detected again, flying past northern Poltava Oblast to Kyiv Oblast.

Its flying west in the direction of Zhurivka, Kyiv Oblast.

It looks more like a Geran-4/5 jet drone. Altitude: 300-500 metres.

Correction: The Gerbera drone which I mentioned earlier was actually a Geran-2 drone.

It has impacted the "Novovolynsk" 330 kV electrical substation in Novovolynsk, Volyn Oblast. Power outages are reported in Novovolynsk and the surrounding areas, including parts of Lviv Oblast.

Coordinates: 50.7054, 24.19365

The number of Geran-2/Gerbera drones detected in Ukrainian airspace has tripled to over 150.

Iskander threat from Bryansk