Good morning.

One of Russia’s strategic command and control frequencies has been active for a while.

The two Tu-95MS strategic bombers which redeployed from the far east to Engels-2 Airbase have flown back north to Olenya Airbase. Other movements are unconfirmed right now.

There is no activity on any combat frequencies yet. I will update when more information comes available.

Reports of Kalibr carriers exiting Novorossiysk Naval Base, Krasnodar Krai, are false.

The activity is linked to ongoing training exercises of the Black Sea Fleet in the waters south of Kerch.

Well, it seems I was right.

There is activity on a Russian combat frequency. This started around 30 minutes ago. There will most likely be a large-scale, combined Russian missile and drone attack tonight.

Assuming an attack does indeed happen (which is extremely likely), what could be used tonight?

- A minimum of 4 Tu-95MS strategic bombers will take off from Olenya Airbase at least 4 hours from now. They will launch Kh-101 cruise missiles.

- 3 surface carriers (Admiral Makarov/Essen frigates) will likely depart from Novorossiysk Naval Base, Krasnodar Krai, some time in the next 6 hours. They can launch up to 24 Kalibr cruise missiles.

- At least 4 Tu-22m3 strategic bombers could take off from Dyagilevo Airbase, Ryazan Oblast, to launch Kh-22/32 cruise missiles.

- 4-6 MiG-31K fighters could take off from Savasleika Airbase, Nizhny Novgorod Oblast, to launch Kinzhal hypersonic aeroballistic missiles.

- Iskander-M ballistic missiles / Iskander-K cruise missiles could be launched from OTRK installations in Bryansk, Kursk, Voronezh, and Rostov Oblasts.

- Kh-59/69 cruise missiles could be launched from Su-57 fighters, presumably from Kursk/Belgorod Oblast.

- Geran-2/3 drones. Launches have already taken place from at least 6 different locations.

If Tu-22m3s are used, Kyiv Oblast will probably be attacked, however its still unclear if Kyiv will be the main target. There is a high threat to energy infrastructure in the western regions of Ukraine during the night too.

Threat of Kh-59/69 cruise missile launches for Sumy Oblast. A Su-57 is airborne in Kursk Oblast. This is likely the aircraft I warned of earlier.

The Su-57 is flying near the border of Kursk and Oryol Oblasts.

A Russian Gerbera recon drone is carrying out a reconnaissance mission over northwestern Ukraine, currently flying over Volyn Oblast. Other Gerbera was active earlier in Rivne Oblast.

Northwestern Ukraine has seen an increase in Gerbera activity in recent days.

A minimum of 50 Geran-2/Gerbera drones are detected in Ukrainian airspace.

The main flight vectors are shown on the map

The Su-57 is carrying out a patrol.

The Su-57 ended up launching a cruise missile. It was detected earlier, but disappeared. Now it as been detected again, flying past northern Poltava Oblast to Kyiv Oblast.

Its flying west in the direction of Zhurivka, Kyiv Oblast.

It looks more like a Geran-4/5 jet drone. Altitude: 300-500 metres.

Correction: The Gerbera drone which I mentioned earlier was actually a Geran-2 drone.

It has impacted the "Novovolynsk" 330 kV electrical substation in Novovolynsk, Volyn Oblast. Power outages are reported in Novovolynsk and the surrounding areas, including parts of Lviv Oblast.

Coordinates: 50.7054, 24.19365

The number of Geran-2/Gerbera drones detected in Ukrainian airspace has tripled to over 150.

Iskander threat from Bryansk

Likely Russian S-300/400 air defence activity against Ukrainian UAVs

Around 100 Geran-2 drones are flying to/though Poltava Oblast, in the direction of Kremenchuk.

At least 4 Tu-95MS strategic bombers have departed from Olenya Airbase, Murmansk Oblast, flying south to their launch lines in the Engels/Volgograd/Caspian Sea area.

It is possible that these are being mixed up with Tu-22m3 strategic bombers, but this seems unlikely to me.

Estimated times for the Tu-95MS to reach their launch lines:

- Southeastern Nizhny Novgorod Oblast: ~2 hrs.
- Mokshansky District, Penza Oblast: ~2 hrs, 10 mins.
- Engels District, Saratov Oblast: ~2 hrs, 40 mins.
- Kalachyovksy District, Volograd Oblast: ~3 hrs.
- Limansky District, Astrakhan Oblast: ~3 hrs 45 mins.

Additionally, it's possible that 2-4 Tu-160M strategic bombers are airborne from Ukrainka Airbase, Amur Oblast.

Possible departures of at least 3 Tu-22m3 strategic bombers from Olenya Airbase, Murmansk Oblast.

Unconfirmed as of now.

The Tu-160M departure from Ukrainka is confirmed. At least 1 Tu-160M flew past Krasnoyarsk in the direction of the launch lines in the Volgograd/Caspian area. It is expected to reach Volgograd Oblast in around 3 hours.

The 3 Tu-22m3 departures from Olenya are also confirmed.