⚡️🇵🇸🇮🇱 Palestinian sources report that Sami al-Dahdouh, a commander in the Al-Quds Brigades, was killed in an dronestrike on the Tel al-Hawa neighbourhood in Gaza.

@wfwitness

Russian forces have captured the village of Zakitne, Rai-Oleksandrivka direction, Donetsk Oblast.

Pre-war population: ~573.
Total land area: ~2.89 km².

The fighting for Zakitne lasted approximately 2 months, 10 days.

Would you look at that… all of a sudden, all the “Pro-Ukraine” accounts care about the frontline situation.

There won’t be an attack tonight, but the threat to Kyiv Oblast has been extended by 48 hours.

I can’t believe so many people are falling for this obvious Ukrainian OPSEC operation.

Even if we wanted to say the first gains were in “contested areas”, a significant portion of the gains are now past even Deepstate’s claimed Russian control zone.

A short time ago, 2 Russian Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles were launched from north of Sevastopol, Crimea, and impacted the "Kyiv" 750 kV electrical substation.

Impact coordinates: 50.49441, 29.69235

Russian forces have re-established control over the city of Rodynske, Dobropillya direction, Donetsk Oblast.

Pre-war population: ~12,000.
Total land area: ~4.25 km².

The second battle for Rodynske lasted approximately 3 months, 19 days.

With Rodynske now back under Russian control, Russian forces have officially established full control over the Pokrovsk agglomeration.

The Pokrovsk Agglomeration is made up the cities of Rodynske, Pokrovsk, Myrnohrad, Novohrodivka, and the village of Hrodivka.

The fighting for this agglomeration began when Russian entered Hrodivka on August 10, 2024. That means the battles lasted for around 1 year, 6 months, and 4 days.

Last night, a Russian Iskander-M ballistic missile launched from Kursk Oblast impacted the "Konotop" 330 kV electrical substation near the city of Konotop, Sumy Oblast.

This substation was also attacked by Geran-2 drones yesterday.

Coordinates: 51.19222, 33.16676

Correction: 4 Zircons were used to strike the substation, not 2.

Russia continues its preparations for the next combined missile and drone attack on Ukraine.

At least 3 Tu-95MS strategic bombers redeployed from Ukrainka Airbase in the far east to Olenya Airbase, Murmansk Oblast. Currently, there are ~5 Tu-95MS stationed at Olenya, all of which are equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles.

There are also ~4 Tu-95MS at Engels-2, at least 2 of which are equipped with missiles.

There remains a threat in place for the usage of Iskander-M ballistic missiles, Iskander-K cruise missiles, and Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles for the next 36 hours. This will likely be combined with the threat of missiles from strategic aviation.

Currently, the highest threat remains to Kyiv Oblast, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, and Kharkiv Oblast. Russian reconnaissance drones have been scouting out targets in Kyiv City and Kyiv, further indicating energy infrastructure in Kyiv Oblast will be the primary target of this upcoming attack.

There is a high threat in place for tomorrow night/morning. It is possible that Russia will carry out another two-stage attack, where they launch Iskander-Ms, Iskander-Ks, and other missiles, and then do another attack a few days later involving strategic aviation, but for now this seems unlikely, considering today's movements.

Considering the peace negotiations will take place tomorrow, the highest threat is in place for tonight.

Residents of Kyiv Oblast, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Kharkiv Oblast, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Lviv Oblast, and northwestern Ukraine should be extremely careful between 12am and 8am tomorrow morning.

I will provide further updates when more information becomes available, and plan to do full coverage of the attack.

Yes, It seems I was right.

Tonight, Russia will probably carry out another large-scale, combined missile and drone attack on Ukraine.

Activity on Russia's strategic command and control frequencies has been recorded, and there are unconfirmed reports of 3 Tu-95MS strategic bombers redeploying from Olenya Airbase to Engels-2 Airbase (unusual, but we will see if this is true).

What will be used tonight?

- 4-6 Tu-95MS strategic bombers
- As many as 20 Iskander-M ballistic missiles.
- 0-16 Kalibr cruise missiles launched from 0-2 frigates (Admiral Essen & Makarov) at Novorossiysk Naval Base, Krasnodar Krai.
- Possibly Iskander-K cruise missiles and Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles.
- 0-6 Kinzhal hypersonic aeroballistic missiles.
- 200-400 Geran-2/Geran-3/Gerbera drones.

The highest threat remains to Kyiv Oblast, but also to Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Kharkiv Oblast, and the western regions of Ukraine. The primary target of the attack will be energy infrastructure.

Updates will follow below

Iskander threat from Crimea