Last night, a Russian Iskander-M ballistic missile launched from Kursk Oblast impacted the "Konotop" 330 kV electrical substation near the city of Konotop, Sumy Oblast.

This substation was also attacked by Geran-2 drones yesterday.

Coordinates: 51.19222, 33.16676

Correction: 4 Zircons were used to strike the substation, not 2.

Russia continues its preparations for the next combined missile and drone attack on Ukraine.

At least 3 Tu-95MS strategic bombers redeployed from Ukrainka Airbase in the far east to Olenya Airbase, Murmansk Oblast. Currently, there are ~5 Tu-95MS stationed at Olenya, all of which are equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles.

There are also ~4 Tu-95MS at Engels-2, at least 2 of which are equipped with missiles.

There remains a threat in place for the usage of Iskander-M ballistic missiles, Iskander-K cruise missiles, and Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles for the next 36 hours. This will likely be combined with the threat of missiles from strategic aviation.

Currently, the highest threat remains to Kyiv Oblast, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, and Kharkiv Oblast. Russian reconnaissance drones have been scouting out targets in Kyiv City and Kyiv, further indicating energy infrastructure in Kyiv Oblast will be the primary target of this upcoming attack.

There is a high threat in place for tomorrow night/morning. It is possible that Russia will carry out another two-stage attack, where they launch Iskander-Ms, Iskander-Ks, and other missiles, and then do another attack a few days later involving strategic aviation, but for now this seems unlikely, considering today's movements.

Considering the peace negotiations will take place tomorrow, the highest threat is in place for tonight.

Residents of Kyiv Oblast, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Kharkiv Oblast, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Lviv Oblast, and northwestern Ukraine should be extremely careful between 12am and 8am tomorrow morning.

I will provide further updates when more information becomes available, and plan to do full coverage of the attack.

Yes, It seems I was right.

Tonight, Russia will probably carry out another large-scale, combined missile and drone attack on Ukraine.

Activity on Russia's strategic command and control frequencies has been recorded, and there are unconfirmed reports of 3 Tu-95MS strategic bombers redeploying from Olenya Airbase to Engels-2 Airbase (unusual, but we will see if this is true).

What will be used tonight?

- 4-6 Tu-95MS strategic bombers
- As many as 20 Iskander-M ballistic missiles.
- 0-16 Kalibr cruise missiles launched from 0-2 frigates (Admiral Essen & Makarov) at Novorossiysk Naval Base, Krasnodar Krai.
- Possibly Iskander-K cruise missiles and Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles.
- 0-6 Kinzhal hypersonic aeroballistic missiles.
- 200-400 Geran-2/Geran-3/Gerbera drones.

The highest threat remains to Kyiv Oblast, but also to Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Kharkiv Oblast, and the western regions of Ukraine. The primary target of the attack will be energy infrastructure.

Updates will follow below

Iskander threat from Crimea

Possible launch. High threat to Odesa Oblast.

This seems to be Russian S-300/400 air defence activity from Armyansk, against Ukrainian UAVs.

Nevermind. Iskander on Kryvyi Rih

Disappeared.

Explosion in Kryvyi Rih

The target of the Iskander-M ballistic missile strike on Kryvyi Rih was the "Hirnycha" 330 kV electrical substation. The missile was equipped with a cluster warhead.

Coordinates: 47.81097, 33.40069

The Ukrainian GUR published footage showing new FPV drone strikes on valuable Russian targets in Crimea.

The following was targeted:

- Pantsir S1 air defence system.
- Nebo-U radar system.
- BK-16 High-Speed Landing Craft

Current threat levels across Ukraine.

Launches of Geran-2 drones have begun from multiple locations have begun.

The first groups of drones have begun entering Sumy and Donetsk Oblasts.

Current threat levels across Ukraine.

Approximately 20 Geran-2/Gerbera drones are detected in Ukrainian airspace.