Yes, It seems I was right.

Tonight, Russia will probably carry out another large-scale, combined missile and drone attack on Ukraine.

Activity on Russia's strategic command and control frequencies has been recorded, and there are unconfirmed reports of 3 Tu-95MS strategic bombers redeploying from Olenya Airbase to Engels-2 Airbase (unusual, but we will see if this is true).

What will be used tonight?

- 4-6 Tu-95MS strategic bombers
- As many as 20 Iskander-M ballistic missiles.
- 0-16 Kalibr cruise missiles launched from 0-2 frigates (Admiral Essen & Makarov) at Novorossiysk Naval Base, Krasnodar Krai.
- Possibly Iskander-K cruise missiles and Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles.
- 0-6 Kinzhal hypersonic aeroballistic missiles.
- 200-400 Geran-2/Geran-3/Gerbera drones.

The highest threat remains to Kyiv Oblast, but also to Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Kharkiv Oblast, and the western regions of Ukraine. The primary target of the attack will be energy infrastructure.

Updates will follow below

Iskander threat from Crimea

Possible launch. High threat to Odesa Oblast.

This seems to be Russian S-300/400 air defence activity from Armyansk, against Ukrainian UAVs.

Nevermind. Iskander on Kryvyi Rih

Disappeared.

Explosion in Kryvyi Rih

The target of the Iskander-M ballistic missile strike on Kryvyi Rih was the "Hirnycha" 330 kV electrical substation. The missile was equipped with a cluster warhead.

Coordinates: 47.81097, 33.40069

The Ukrainian GUR published footage showing new FPV drone strikes on valuable Russian targets in Crimea.

The following was targeted:

- Pantsir S1 air defence system.
- Nebo-U radar system.
- BK-16 High-Speed Landing Craft

Current threat levels across Ukraine.

Launches of Geran-2 drones have begun from multiple locations have begun.

The first groups of drones have begun entering Sumy and Donetsk Oblasts.

Current threat levels across Ukraine.

Approximately 20 Geran-2/Gerbera drones are detected in Ukrainian airspace.

Russian FPV drones continue to attack vehicles in the city of Kramatorsk, Donetsk Oblast, as the frontline gets closer.

This video shows two attacks: one on a military van, and another on a civilian-type car.

Current threat levels across Ukraine.

At least 40 Geran-2 drones are detected in Ukrainian airspace.

Odesa City is currently under attack from Gerans.

General movements of Geran-2/Gerbera drones in Ukrainian airspace.

Approximately 60 drones are now detected.

Regarding the strategic bomber movements:

At least 2 Tu-95MS which reportedly took off from Olenya Airbase did not land at Engels-2 Airbase, which is unsurprising considering they were already equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles.

They likely either redeployed to Dyagilevo Airbase, Ryazan Oblast, or never took off at all.

Meanwhile, communications to strategic command and control in Moscow continues on multiple frequencies. Any departures from Olenya Airbase wont take place for as long as two hours.

Current threat levels across Ukraine.

At least 65 Geran-2 drones are detected in Ukrainian airspace.