Recent reliable reports from multiple sources suggest that Russian forces have likely advanced west of Synkivka in the forests.

This advance was likely relatively easy for them due to the original spearhead to Petropavlivka which facilitated this advance and protected their eastern flank. Their western flank wasn't under much threat either as only small groupings of Ukrainian troops with their backs against the Oskil river were stationed there. It is likely - in my opinion - that this area is now in the grey zone.

+ ~4.07km² in favour of Russia.

Ukrainian sources reported that Russia has started to use decoy drones in their daily Geran drone attacks with the goal being to overload Ukrainian air defense systems.

These drones are structurally small, don't have a warhead, and their payload is a small emitter-simulator of a large air target (missile or fighter).

These drones are reportedly being used both in missile strikes and in Geran attacks, which forces Ukraine to use expensive anti-aircraft missiles against them.

The fact that they are reportedly being used in large missile strikes (presumably from Tu-95 bombers), suggests that Russia has been using them for quite a while as there have been no large missile strikes involving Tu-95 bombers in recent weeks.

The commander of the 401st Armored Brigade of the Israeli army, Col. Ehsan Daqsa, was killed earlier today during operations in Gaza after walking into an explosive trap, presumably set by the Al-Qassam brigades.

Israeli airstrikes are once again targeting the Beqqa valley in northeastern Lebanon. Beqqa is known to be a Hezbollah stronghold, although Israel has also struck civilian targets here.

Airstrikes are now targeting Baalbek, the largest city in the Beqqa area.

The moment Hamas attacked an Israeli Merkava Mk.IV tank in the northern Gaza Strip.

The improvised explosive device was made from an unexploded American Mk82 bomb, which the Israeli Air Force uses to strike the enclave.

Recent Russian aviation movements and radio transmissions suggest that there might be a large-scale missile strike on Ukraine in the next 9 hours involving Tu-95ms bombers (which can carry Kh-101 cruise missiles).

There hasn't been a missiles strike involving Kh-101 cruise missiles for 48 days.

Currently at the Engels-2 airbase, there are 6 Tu-95s, 4 of which are probably equipped with missiles.

Meanwhile at the Olenya airbase, there are 8 Tu-95s, 6 of which are equipped with missiles. That gives us a total of ~10 Tu-95s ready for use. This is a rough estimate, and it could have changed slightly over the past 1-2 weeks.

Another indication of a missile strike today is the fact that there was training conducted yesterday. Training has come one day before a real strike before.

Based on previous patterns of Russian aviation and the reports by Ukrainian monitoring channels, I estimate that there is a 45% chance of a large-scale missile strike in the next 9 hours.

I will continue to monitor the situation, and will update you if anything changes. I will also report on some of the drone activity under this post due to this risk of missiles. In the case of a missile attack, I will make a separate thread on Twitter with live map updates showing the rough locations of the missiles in near-real time. I will also cover it here on telegram.

At least 2 Tu-95s airborne. It's looking likely now.

There are still 7 Geran drones in the airspace of Ukraine. Relaunches from Kursk, Crimea or Krasnodar is possible.

6 of them are in the south, 5 of which are moving east through Zaporizhzhia Oblast, 1 is flying through Dnipro from the south.

1 is in Poltava Oblast flying north.

It turns out that the 3 Tu-95s are airborne in the far east of Russia. Most likely training.

I will continue to monitor the situation.

1 Tu-95 took off from Olenya airfield and is heading south in the direction of the launch lines.

New Geran drones were launched from Kursk Oblast in the direction of Sumy Oblast. It is unknown how many were launched, and so far only 1 has been recorded in the airspace of Ukraine.

Ukraine had a 1-minute break from Geran drones and air raid alerts...

At least 4 new Gerans were launched from Kursk Oblast in the direction of Sumy. These may coincide with potential Kh-101 missile launches.

The Tu-95 landed. Likely no strike tonight. I will continue to monitor the situation however, and will let you all know if anything changes.

Geolocated footage indicates that Russian forces have made substantial progress in and around the town of Katerynivka.

The Russians advanced in two main directions here. The first one was directly into the village. Russian forces advanced up a treeline, before moving into the southeastern buildings. Assault groups worked their way north to the intersection between Leninska street and the main road, where they were able to take up positions in the town centre.

They also advanced to the south of Katerynivka and captured the agricultural buildings, as well as a small treeline next to the reservoirs.

Ukraine responded by dropping grenades and anti-tank mines on Russian infantry and positions. At least 10 Russian soldiers were killed or wounded as a result.

I forgot to mention that I uploaded a YouTube video covering the recent events in Ukraine, The Middle East, Syria and Myanmar.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hWk6EgCplbI&t=3s