Israeli airstrikes are once again targeting the Beqqa valley in northeastern Lebanon. Beqqa is known to be a Hezbollah stronghold, although Israel has also struck civilian targets here.

Airstrikes are now targeting Baalbek, the largest city in the Beqqa area.

The moment Hamas attacked an Israeli Merkava Mk.IV tank in the northern Gaza Strip.

The improvised explosive device was made from an unexploded American Mk82 bomb, which the Israeli Air Force uses to strike the enclave.

Recent Russian aviation movements and radio transmissions suggest that there might be a large-scale missile strike on Ukraine in the next 9 hours involving Tu-95ms bombers (which can carry Kh-101 cruise missiles).

There hasn't been a missiles strike involving Kh-101 cruise missiles for 48 days.

Currently at the Engels-2 airbase, there are 6 Tu-95s, 4 of which are probably equipped with missiles.

Meanwhile at the Olenya airbase, there are 8 Tu-95s, 6 of which are equipped with missiles. That gives us a total of ~10 Tu-95s ready for use. This is a rough estimate, and it could have changed slightly over the past 1-2 weeks.

Another indication of a missile strike today is the fact that there was training conducted yesterday. Training has come one day before a real strike before.

Based on previous patterns of Russian aviation and the reports by Ukrainian monitoring channels, I estimate that there is a 45% chance of a large-scale missile strike in the next 9 hours.

I will continue to monitor the situation, and will update you if anything changes. I will also report on some of the drone activity under this post due to this risk of missiles. In the case of a missile attack, I will make a separate thread on Twitter with live map updates showing the rough locations of the missiles in near-real time. I will also cover it here on telegram.

At least 2 Tu-95s airborne. It's looking likely now.

There are still 7 Geran drones in the airspace of Ukraine. Relaunches from Kursk, Crimea or Krasnodar is possible.

6 of them are in the south, 5 of which are moving east through Zaporizhzhia Oblast, 1 is flying through Dnipro from the south.

1 is in Poltava Oblast flying north.

It turns out that the 3 Tu-95s are airborne in the far east of Russia. Most likely training.

I will continue to monitor the situation.

1 Tu-95 took off from Olenya airfield and is heading south in the direction of the launch lines.

New Geran drones were launched from Kursk Oblast in the direction of Sumy Oblast. It is unknown how many were launched, and so far only 1 has been recorded in the airspace of Ukraine.

Ukraine had a 1-minute break from Geran drones and air raid alerts...

At least 4 new Gerans were launched from Kursk Oblast in the direction of Sumy. These may coincide with potential Kh-101 missile launches.

The Tu-95 landed. Likely no strike tonight. I will continue to monitor the situation however, and will let you all know if anything changes.

Geolocated footage indicates that Russian forces have made substantial progress in and around the town of Katerynivka.

The Russians advanced in two main directions here. The first one was directly into the village. Russian forces advanced up a treeline, before moving into the southeastern buildings. Assault groups worked their way north to the intersection between Leninska street and the main road, where they were able to take up positions in the town centre.

They also advanced to the south of Katerynivka and captured the agricultural buildings, as well as a small treeline next to the reservoirs.

Ukraine responded by dropping grenades and anti-tank mines on Russian infantry and positions. At least 10 Russian soldiers were killed or wounded as a result.

I forgot to mention that I uploaded a YouTube video covering the recent events in Ukraine, The Middle East, Syria and Myanmar.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hWk6EgCplbI&t=3s

2 Tu-95s are currently flying over Astrakhan oblast of Russia, and are about to enter the Caspian sea. It is unknown whether this is a combat flight.

In my opinion, since they are going straight for the Caspian Sea rather than conducting launch maneuvers in Saratov Oblast, it is likely that this is just training.

If I had to guess, there is a 20% chance of a combat flight in the next 8 hours.

They took a U-turn, and are heading back to Astrakhan. It appears that they are just redeploying.

Explosions in Kharkiv. KAB glide bomb attacks are underway.

Israeli Officials reportedly told Hebrew Channel 12 that the retaliatory strike against Iran is ready. There are expectations that Iran will Immediately respond to the Strikes.

Geolocated footage indicates that Russian forces broke through Ukrainian positions in Selydove, and reached the city centre.

Following the restarting of offensive operations in Selydove, and the establishment of positions on the western bank of a tributary of the Solona river, Russian forces built on their momentum and moved through eastern suburbs of the city to the high-rise buildings where the main Ukrainian forces were garrisoned.

The speed of this advance and the lack of footage indicates that the advance was relatively easy for the Russians, and that the entire eastern residential area has been in a grey zone for multiple days.

One reason for this rapid advance and the lack of Ukrainian resistance was the lack of ammunition and other general supplies going into the city. The last routes out of Selydove are either under Russian control or direct fire control, which has reportedly forced the Ukrainians to resort to using drones to resupply their garrison.

Additionally, Ukrainian forces have withdrawn from the fields to the southwest of Selydove due to the risk of being encircled, although I doubt they maintained much of a presence there anyway.

Reports from multiple reliable sources suggest that Russian forces have advanced on the southern flank of Selydove and entered the village of Vyshneve.

If true, they would have used the wind breaks on either side of the railway line as cover from Ukrainian FPV drones and artillery. Additionally, the width of the windbreaks allows larger groups of infantry to move undetected and pop out at Vyshneve, unless of course Ukraine has trench fortifications in the trees.

Either way, Russian troops were likely able to capture at least one block of the village, as well as reaching the industrial train station.

This advance would also mean that one of the two remaining supply lines into Selydove has been physically cut.