The usage of ATACMS by Ukraine on Bryansk Oblast, Russia, was confirmed by the Russian Ministry of Defence.

They claimed 5 out of 6 missiles were downed. Reuters on the other hand, citing anonymous US officials, claimed that Russia intercepted 2 out of 8 missiles.

Probability of a Russian missile attack on Ukraine involving Tu-95/Tu-160 bombers:

For the next 24 hours, I estimate that there is a 7% chance of this occurring.

There is currently no activity noted by Ukrainian monitor channels of preparations for Russian attacks.

The number of Tu-95 bombers stationed at Olenya airbase (the primary airbase used for take-off during attacks), has not changed. (it stands at ~16-17 Tu-95s)

Over the past 24 hours, 3 main actions by Russia were noted:

- 6 Kalibr missile-carriers of the "Varshavyanka" and
"Admiral Makarov/Esen" projects were deployed to
the waters of the Black Sea, with a total possible
salvo of up to 24 Kalibr missiles.

- 2 Training of 2 MiG-31Ks from Savasleika Airbase

- Training of several Tu-22m3 aircraft from Olenya
Airbase.

A large scale Ukrainian UAV attack on Russia is underway. From 21:00 to 23:55 local time, it is reported that the following were shot down

32 UAVs over Bryansk Oblast;
5 UAVs over Smolensk Oblast;
2 UAVs over Moscow Oblast;
1 UAV over Kursk Oblast;
1 UAV over Oryol Oblast;
1 UAV over the Rostov Oblast.

There were also UAVs shot down over Mariupol, Donetsk Oblast.

Meanwhile, a direct impact was made on a factory producing Mayonnaise (yes you read that right).

Missile in the direction of Kharkiv.

A second missile towards Kharkiv

Explosions in Kharkiv

A third missile was launched. Probably Iskander.

Explosions

Explosions were reported in Poltava. Geran-2 drone attacks were carried out.

Additionally, ~8 Gerans are flying in the direction of Kremenchuk, 3 Gerans are in the Konotop area of Sumy Oblast, heading west. 2 are circling north and south of Starokostyantyniv (Khmelnytskyi Oblast). A couple of them are also flying in the direction of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, while one is in the Korosten area of Zhytmoyr Oblast.

Btw, these drone attacks happen practically every day, I just don't report on them very often.

Ah yes, Ukraine is in such a winning position when:

> Russia's losses are replaceable. According to a NATO official, they are recruiting 30,000 men per month.

> Russia isn't hauling people off the street, beating them up and sending them to Pokrovsk (unlike Ukraine), why? because they don't need to.

> Ukrainian production is going to suffer during the winter when they have hardly any electricity

> Russia can strike all of Ukraine with missiles and drones, Ukraine can't strike all of Russia with missiles and drones (even if they could Russian air defence is much stronger)

> Ukraine is targeting things that can be replaced, eg. ammo depots, Russia is targeting things that take much longer to repair, eg. critical energy infrastructure

> The west doesn't care about Ukraine. They are using them to keep Russia occupied and as a testing ground for their weapons.

> Russia's military industrial complex is much, much larger than Ukraine's, meaning Russia has the upper hand in a war of attrition.

> Trump won the election (self-explanatory)

> Russia only has 1 more line of defence to break through until it reaches Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, which if you don't know is a massive expanse of flat fucking fields.

> Ukraine is running critically short on manpower, allowing the Russian advances to exponentially grow (look at south Donetsk for example)

I'm sorry, but this is just a fact.

This video reportedly shows heavy artillery preparation on the Refractory plant in Chasiv Yar, which the Russians are attempting to storm.

A Russian Kh-38 missile struck a makeshift bridge over the Siversky Donets river. It was apparently the main Ukrainian supply route for the Lyman direction.

Here's the video of the strike.

Israeli forces are currently attempting to encircle the Hezbollah garrison in the town of Naquora by bypassing them from the north and reaching the coast.

Heavy fighting is ongoing in the town of Chama which Israel has been trying to capture for three days now. The settlement is still in a grey zone, however.

On the eastern sector of the Lebanon front, I expanded the grey zone to include the southern part of Khiam. Israel has been attempting to capture this town for weeks, and recent reports state that fighting is ongoing in the southern buildings.

On the western axis of the Lebanon front, I expanded the grey zone to include most of the town Tayr Harfa, following footage that shows an Israeli tank advancing westwards down the main street.

It is possible that we will see a second attack vector from Aalma al Chaeb following the capture of part of the hills there, in order to encircle Hezbollah in the villages further south.

Geolocated footage indicates that Russian forces continue to advance in northern Toretsk, and have reached the Fomikha district.

After reversing Ukraine's progress in the city centre and capturing the community centre, Russian forces continued their assault operations and captured several more streets in the private sector, as well as the stadium.

As a result of this advance, they are getting very close to being able to bypass the remaining half of the city centre still under Ukrainian control and hit them from behind. Once the city centre falls, the main Ukrainian stronghold in the industrial zone will be under attack.

Ukraine responded by drone dropping three grenades on one Russian soldier, killing him.