The Greek embassy in Ukraine will also temporarily close today

The Italian embassy in Ukraine has announced that it will temporarily close today.

Ballistic missile in the direction of Kyiv

A second Ballistic in the direction of Kyiv. The first disappeared from the radar on the border with Chernihiv Oblast.

Also disappeared from the radar. They might be targeting air defence installations.

Geran drones were launched from Khalino airbase in Kursk Oblast. The first one has already entered northern Sumy Oblast. It's going to be a long 24 hours for Ukraine.

Ukraine just launched two missiles of an unknown type at Yeysk, Krasnodar Krai

Russian channels: “the situation with missiles is unclear”.

Traffic on the Kerch bridge was blocked. Missile dangers were also declared for Azov, Donetsk city, Mariupol and Bryansk Oblast.

I’ll continue to monitor the situation.

They disappeared from the radar.

Air raid alerts were lifted for Crimea, Azov and Yeysk. A missile threat remains in place for Donetsk city, Mariupol and Bryansk.

All air raid alerts were lifted. It was either a false alarm or the missiles were shot down.

Explosions were reported in Slovyansk, Donetsk oblast. Presumably KAB attacks.

The US embassy in Kyiv has announced that they will be resuming their services, following the temporary suspension due to the threat of a significant russian missile attack.

The moment ~12 Storm Shadow missiles impacted the village of Maryino, Kursk Oblast.

Probability of a Russian missile attack on Ukraine involving Tu-95/Tu-160 bombers:

For the next 24 hours, I estimate that there is a 45% chance of this occurring.

There was activity noted by Ukrainian monitor channels of preparations for Russian attacks.

The number of Tu-95 bombers stationed at Olenya airbase (the primary airbase used for take-off during attacks), has decreased from ~16-17 to ~11-12.

Over the past 24 hours, 3 main actions by Russia were noted:

- Redeployment of ~5 Tu-95 aircraft from Olenya airbase to Engels-2 airbase (simulated launch maneuvers of Kh-101 missiles were made while airborne)

- Training of 3 Tu-95 aircraft from Engels-2 Airbase

- Training of 1 Tu-160 aircraft from Engels-2 Airbase.

There are also still 6 Kalibr missile-carriers in the Black Sea, including:

— 1 frigate of project 11356R "Admiral Makarov";
— 1 frigate of project 11356P "Admiral Essen";
— 4 submarine missile carriers of project 636.3

This would mean that there is still a total possible salvo from the Black Sea of 23 missiles, down from 24 (1 missile was fired 2 days ago)

Disclaimer: the percentage estimate is very approximate, and based off previous patterns that I and others have observed. Do not use this as an early warning system.

I present to you: the drone carrying drone.

This is a new type of drone created by Ukraine known as “Dovbush”, that can apparently carry as many as 6 FPV drones.

It has a wingspan of 4.5 metres and a range of 40km. It is also equipped with a thermal imaging camera and has GPS + inertial guidance.

No Russian Geran-2 drones have been recorded in Ukrainian airspace for about 12 hours now. They usually are active right now. Very odd.

It could be one of those rare nights when nothing is launched though.

Unconfirmed reports of Tu-95s taking off.