Geran drones were launched from Khalino airbase in Kursk Oblast. The first one has already entered northern Sumy Oblast. It's going to be a long 24 hours for Ukraine.

Ukraine just launched two missiles of an unknown type at Yeysk, Krasnodar Krai

Russian channels: “the situation with missiles is unclear”.

Traffic on the Kerch bridge was blocked. Missile dangers were also declared for Azov, Donetsk city, Mariupol and Bryansk Oblast.

I’ll continue to monitor the situation.

They disappeared from the radar.

Air raid alerts were lifted for Crimea, Azov and Yeysk. A missile threat remains in place for Donetsk city, Mariupol and Bryansk.

All air raid alerts were lifted. It was either a false alarm or the missiles were shot down.

Explosions were reported in Slovyansk, Donetsk oblast. Presumably KAB attacks.

The US embassy in Kyiv has announced that they will be resuming their services, following the temporary suspension due to the threat of a significant russian missile attack.

The moment ~12 Storm Shadow missiles impacted the village of Maryino, Kursk Oblast.

Probability of a Russian missile attack on Ukraine involving Tu-95/Tu-160 bombers:

For the next 24 hours, I estimate that there is a 45% chance of this occurring.

There was activity noted by Ukrainian monitor channels of preparations for Russian attacks.

The number of Tu-95 bombers stationed at Olenya airbase (the primary airbase used for take-off during attacks), has decreased from ~16-17 to ~11-12.

Over the past 24 hours, 3 main actions by Russia were noted:

- Redeployment of ~5 Tu-95 aircraft from Olenya airbase to Engels-2 airbase (simulated launch maneuvers of Kh-101 missiles were made while airborne)

- Training of 3 Tu-95 aircraft from Engels-2 Airbase

- Training of 1 Tu-160 aircraft from Engels-2 Airbase.

There are also still 6 Kalibr missile-carriers in the Black Sea, including:

— 1 frigate of project 11356R "Admiral Makarov";
— 1 frigate of project 11356P "Admiral Essen";
— 4 submarine missile carriers of project 636.3

This would mean that there is still a total possible salvo from the Black Sea of 23 missiles, down from 24 (1 missile was fired 2 days ago)

Disclaimer: the percentage estimate is very approximate, and based off previous patterns that I and others have observed. Do not use this as an early warning system.

I present to you: the drone carrying drone.

This is a new type of drone created by Ukraine known as “Dovbush”, that can apparently carry as many as 6 FPV drones.

It has a wingspan of 4.5 metres and a range of 40km. It is also equipped with a thermal imaging camera and has GPS + inertial guidance.

No Russian Geran-2 drones have been recorded in Ukrainian airspace for about 12 hours now. They usually are active right now. Very odd.

It could be one of those rare nights when nothing is launched though.

Unconfirmed reports of Tu-95s taking off.

False alarm.

Geolocated footage and reports from reliable sources suggest that Russian forces have significantly advanced in Kurakhove and reached the city centre.

Starting off with what is visually confirmed, Russia was able to advance from their positions in and around school no. 3 and seize the entirety of the eastern suburbs of Kurakhove. Russian soldiers then raised their flag over an open area next to a building, confirming their confident control of the area.

Meanwhile, reports from reliable sources state that Russian forces have continued to advance towards the city centre and occupied the large grain elevators as well as part of the residential areas.

Geolocated footage indicates that Russian forces continue to make incremental gains in the Cauldron south of Kurakhove, and have taken up new positions.

In the north, a Russian tank advanced southwards to a firing position and fired shells at Ukrainian treeline positions, before withdrawing north again. The positioning of this tank indicates that Russian forces have control over the treelines to the north. This advance was also confirmed by reliable sources two days ago.

In the south, 5 Russian tanks and armoured vehicles advanced north along the edge of the Yelyzvetivskyi forest. Ukraine fired 3 artillery shells at the vehicles but missed. The forward Russian tank laid suppressive fire on the Ukrainian positions in the forests. The positions of the vehicles indicate Russian control over the treelines to the south and southwest.

+ ~4.53km² in favour of Russia.