Threat of long-range ballistics from Astrakhan oblast too

Ballistic missiles were launched from Astrakhan Oblast

Powerful explosions were reported in Dnipropetrovsk

A 2nd MiG-31K took off

Launch maneuvers were carried out by 6 Tu-95 aircraft

The sounds of explosions in Dnipro after 2 Kinzhals (not Iskanders) slammed into the city

Very strange movements of Russian strategic aircraft are being reported right now

2 launch maneuvers were made, meaning that we could expect 2 waves of Kh-101 missiles. There is still a chance that these were simulations though.

The launches appear to have been carried out in groups of 2 aircraft. 4 aircraft have made launch maneuvers so far, the remaining 2 are flying to the launch lines in the Caspian.

Different sources are saying different things, so it's difficult to determine where the first launches took place.

In fact it's even possible that the first "Kinzhal missiles" were actually Kh-101 cruise missiles. This has happened in the past, where launch maneuvers were not detected, or mixed up with other activity. The MiG-31Ks could've taken off and conducted launch maneuvers at the same time as to confuse Ukrainian air defence crews as they may expect Kinzhals, but instead receive Kh-101s. Then if you mix in potential tests with long-range ballistics from Astrakhan Oblast, you get a lot of confusion. I'd say this scenario is unlikely, but we will see later on once more reliable information is released.

The 2 MiG-31K's landed, presumably at Savasleika airbase. Ukrainian monitoring channels noted that a risk of more take-offs remains.

If the missile launches weren't simulated, then we can expect them to enter the airspace of Ukraine in the next 20 minutes.

The 2 Tu-95s which were flying in the direction of the Caspian Sea landed at Astrakhan Airbase. No launch maneuvers were carried out. You don't often see Tu-95s land here though.

The Ukrainian navy reported that there are 24 Russian ships in the waters of the Black Sea, of which 5 are carriers of Kalibr missiles. This means that there is a total possible salvo of 28 Kalibr missiles.

The 4 Tu-95s that were heading for Olenya airbase after conducting launch maneuvers have returned in the opposite direction and landed at Engels-2 airbase.

These movements are really weird. I personally haven't seen anything similar before.

Also It doesn't look like any missiles were launched, but let's wait a little longer.

There is an added threat of Kalibr launches from the Black Sea

Kh-101s entered Ukraine

Flying south through Chernihiv Oblast

Reports of Kalibr launches

at least 3 Kh-101s in the first group