The sources which reported this deleted their messages

Explosions in Cherkasy. Geran-2 drone attacks are underway.

New launches of Geran-2 drones from Khalino airbase in Kursk Oblast. Odd timing.

Following, Russia's usage of an ICBM/IRBM on Dnipro, Ukraine, (marking the first time in human history that one of these weapons has been used in warfare), the Pentagon announced that the US is adjusting its nuclear deterrence strategy. The reasoning for this was because nuclear adversaries - Russia and China - are becoming "more threatening."

“We now live in a world where we face multiple nuclear competitors, multiple states that are expanding, diversifying, and modernizing their nuclear arsenals, and, unfortunately, prioritizing the role of nuclear weapons in their national security strategies,” said Richard Johnson, the deputy assistant secretary of defence for nuclear policy and countering weapons of mass destruction.

He also stated that the US may need to adjust the 2022 nuclear posture review "to maintain nuclear deterrence in light of the increased nuclear capabilities of China and Russia"

So far, steps have been taken to increase the USA's capabilities, including in the field of the production of B61-13 gravity bombs, enhancing the readiness of Ohio-class submarines equipped with nuclear weapons and propulsion systems, and modernising the nuclear arsenal in general.

At the same time, Johnson said that "The report also recognises that deterrence alone will not address strategic dangers. It recognizes that arms control and that risk reduction and nuclear nonproliferation play indispensable roles as well".

Grant Schneider, vice deputy director for strategic stability at the Joint Staff, stated that "To be prepared for the 2030s, we have to modernize our nuclear forces, the nuclear command and control, and the associated infrastructure that will allow us to be flexible and adjust over time as new challenges arise, whether that's new threats or potential changes or delays in our modernisation."

He emphasised that another part of the report is the "significant intellectual and analytical work required to identify the range of scenarios and strategic circumstances that the U.S. might face alongside its allies going into the 2030s."

The French news agency "AFP", citing officials, stated that Ukraine has called for an emergency meeting of the Ukraine-NATO council following Russia's usage of an ICBM/IRBM on Dnipro. It has apparently been scheduled for November 26.

During this meeting, officials will reportedly discuss Russia's use of this new missile, and the consequences of the attack.

The head of the Sumy OVA, Volodymyr Artyukh, claimed that Russia has begun equipping their Geran-2 drones with shrapnel, and using them on Sumy Oblast.

Several explosions were reported in Dnipro after a Russian Iskander-M ballistic missile launched from Crimea struck the city.

Israeli forces are beginning to see their first localised successes in southern Lebanon after nearly two months of war.

Probability of a Russian missile attack on Ukraine involving Tu-95/Tu-160 bombers:

For the next 24 hours, I estimate that there is a 15% chance of this occurring.

There has been no activity noted by Ukrainian monitor channels of preparations for Russian attacks.

Over the past 24 hours, 1 main action by Russia was noted:

- Redeployment of 1 Tu-95 aircraft from Ukrainka airfield in Amur Oblast to Engels-2 airfield in Saratov Oblast.

There are also still 6 Kalibr missile-carriers in the Black Sea with a total possible salvo of up to 24 Kalibr missiles

Disclaimer: the percentage estimate is very approximate, and based off previous patterns that I and others have observed. Do not use this as an early warning system.

Hezbollah is reportedly conducting a counteroffensive in the town of Khiyam, southeastern Lebanon.

Extremely violent clashes are ongoing with unconfirmed reports of an Israeli commander losing contact with his unit, and other unconfirmed reports of multiple Israeli POWs being captured.

There will be more to come once I release an official map update for the area.

Launches of rockets from Lebanon to Haifa, Northwestern Israel.

5-6 bombs were used to completely level the 6-story building.

No evacuation orders were issued. We might be witnessing one of the deadliest mass casualty events in Lebanon since the beginning of the war.

Plus it’s 4:30am. Basically everyone was asleep in Lebanon.

Israeli warplanes continue to fly over Beirut.

A direct impact from a Hezbollah rocket next to a factory in Krayot.