Israeli forces are beginning to see their first localised successes in southern Lebanon after nearly two months of war.

Probability of a Russian missile attack on Ukraine involving Tu-95/Tu-160 bombers:

For the next 24 hours, I estimate that there is a 15% chance of this occurring.

There has been no activity noted by Ukrainian monitor channels of preparations for Russian attacks.

Over the past 24 hours, 1 main action by Russia was noted:

- Redeployment of 1 Tu-95 aircraft from Ukrainka airfield in Amur Oblast to Engels-2 airfield in Saratov Oblast.

There are also still 6 Kalibr missile-carriers in the Black Sea with a total possible salvo of up to 24 Kalibr missiles

Disclaimer: the percentage estimate is very approximate, and based off previous patterns that I and others have observed. Do not use this as an early warning system.

Hezbollah is reportedly conducting a counteroffensive in the town of Khiyam, southeastern Lebanon.

Extremely violent clashes are ongoing with unconfirmed reports of an Israeli commander losing contact with his unit, and other unconfirmed reports of multiple Israeli POWs being captured.

There will be more to come once I release an official map update for the area.

Launches of rockets from Lebanon to Haifa, Northwestern Israel.

5-6 bombs were used to completely level the 6-story building.

No evacuation orders were issued. We might be witnessing one of the deadliest mass casualty events in Lebanon since the beginning of the war.

Plus it’s 4:30am. Basically everyone was asleep in Lebanon.

Israeli warplanes continue to fly over Beirut.

A direct impact from a Hezbollah rocket next to a factory in Krayot.

A preliminary toll states that 4 people were killed and 23 others injured.

Geolocated footage indicates that Russian forces advanced in eastern Kharkiv Oblast, capturing the village of Pershotravneve and entering Kopanki.

This was previously reported around 2 weeks ago but has only just been confirmed today. After a Russian tank laid supressive fire on the eastern part of Pershotravneve, Russian infantry rushed into the village, capturing it in its entirety. Shortly afterwards, building on their momentum, the Russians advanced to, and entered Kopanki.

A Russian flag was raised over the eastern part of the village, but so far, no confirmation has been received of their full control over it. However, this advance is on the high ground and will allow Russia to advance downhill to the west, moving deeper into Kharkiv Oblast if they wish.

+ ~2.22km² in favour of Russia

Geolocated footage indicates that Russian forces have significantly advanced in the cauldron south of Kurakhove.

It appears that Ukraine has pulled out of the easternomost and most dangerous part of this cauldron, with the goal of not being encircled from the flanks. Currently, most of Ukraine's forces are on the flanks, putting up fierce resistance against the slowly advancing Russian army, but this withdrawal indicates that Ukraine knows that it can't hold out for too much longer.

After this withdrawal took place, Russian forces were able to advance from the newly captured village of Antoniva to the north of Illinka, seizing a Ukrainian stronghold. This might be to attempt an encirclement of Ukrainian formations in eastern Illinka against the Sukhi Yaly river.

+ ~28.0km² in favour of Russia

Geolocated footage indicates that Russian forces have advanced in the direction of Rozdolne, taking up new treeline positions.

Russian forces were able to significantly increae the buffer zone to the north and northwest of Shakhtarske, and are now within 2.7km of Rozdolne. Russian "turtle tanks" attempted to advance further, but were abandoned for some reason, and then struck by Ukrainian FPV drones.

It appears that the goal is to capture Rozdolne and cut one of the Ukrainian supply routes into Velyka Novosilka.

+ ~17.6km² in favour of Russia.

Geolocated footage indicates that Russian forces have advanced in the western part of the Kursk salient, recapturing the village of Darino.

After a bridgehead on the eastern bank of the Snagost river was established, with the Russians taking up positions in the centre of Darino, Russian troops continued their assault operations, pushing outwards in three main directions.

In the north, they completed the capture of a residential street, in the east they were able to seize the agricultural buildings on the outskirts, also capturing Ukrainian POWs, and in the south, they completed the capture of another residential street.

+ ~1.12km² in favour of Russia.

A recent report by Pro-Ukrainian source "Deepstate" says that Russian forces have advanced northeast of Yasna Polyana, taking up new treeline positions. They then reportedly went on to take up further positions in the treeline running east to west.

It was also reported that Russian forces created a small buffer-zone north of Maksymivka.

Newly released satellite imagery from Palmyra, Syria reveals the true scale of destruction in the city after the Israeli airstrikes 2 days ago.

Entire blocks of buildings have been levelled. The destruction has been concentrated in four main spots.

Around one third of the western district of Palmyra was destroyed, but interestingly, no civilian deaths were reported by Syrian authorities, however at least 50 SAA (Syrian Arab Army) and SAA-affiliated soldiers were killed.

It suggests that this part of the city had been turned into a military position by the SAA.