Drone infiltration threat near Gaza

Apparently the drone was launched from Yemen, and was intercepted.

I highly doubt this was electronic warfare btw. The videos I’ve seen of EW shows the drones swaying and tilting. This seems like a targeted attack on civilians in revenge for the Russian missile attacks on Kyiv.

I’m open to speculation as usual, but in my opinion it just doesn’t fit the criteria for EW.

Following an order by Chadian authorities for a French withdrawal from Chad and the end of military cooperation on November 28, 2024, the first 120 French soldiers have left the capital N'djamena and returned to France. This comes 10 days after French fighter jets stationed in the country also left.

The French Ministry of Defence announced on their Facebook account that "At midday, 120 French soldiers took off from the military airport of N’Djamena on board an Airbus A330 Phoenix MRTT, headed for France."

The remaining ~1,000 French soldiers will have to leave before the 31st of January 2025.

This order by Chad continues to mark a shift in influence in the wider Sahel region of Africa from western post-colonial powers to countries such as Russia and China, further facilitating the shift towards a multi-polar world.

You might remember the military coups in Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger. Well, these countries are scheduled to officially withdraw from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) on January 29, 2025. The west has a decent amount of influence over ECOWAS, and the shrinking of this alliance will further decrease their sphere of influence in Africa.

On Friday, the U.S. military announced a military aid package to Egypt, worth more than $5 Billion USD.

Included in this military aid package is the sale of:

- Equipment worth $4.69 billion for 555 of the
Egyptian-operated M1A1 Abrams tanks.
- 2,183 AGM-114 Hellfire laser-guided air-to-surface
missiles worth $630 million.
- Precision-guided munitions of an unspecified type
(possibly JDAMs) worth $30 million.

According to a statement by the U.S. government, the sale "will support the foreign policy and national security of the United States by helping to improve the security of a major non-NATO ally country that continues to be an important strategic partner in the Middle East.”

Egypt has become an increasingly close partner for the U.S. in mediating ceasefire talks for the Israel-Hamas war, despite human-rights concerns involving political prisoners.

No Deepstate updates for two days now... not a good sign for Ukraine.

Geolocated footage and reliable reports indicate that Russian forces advanced in eastern Toretsk and have captured new positions in low-rise residential areas.

After establishing a buffer zone to the north and northeast of the city centre, Russian infantry was able to continue their incremental advances to the northeast, entering the Kryms'ke suburb.

Additional reports from reliable sources suggest that Russian forces likely advanced even further into Kryms'ke, taking up positions less than 200 metres from the mines - which is likely a Ukrainian stronghold.

+ ~0.48km² confirmed in favour of Russia.

Geolocated footage indicates that Russian forces advanced in the western part of Kursk Oblast and reached the eastern outskirts of Kruglen'koe.

After establishing control over most of these forest planations, Russian forces were able to advance further towards Malaya Loknya, bypassing Kruglen'koe from the east. I doubt there is much of a Ukrainian presence in Kruglen'koe, as the village only contains a few houses.

Ukraine is reportedly attempting to organise a defence on the tactical heights to the west of Malaya Loknya, covering the village, however control over Kruglenkoe will create a threat to the eastern flank of these defences.

+ ~1.56km² in favour of Russia.

Geolocated footage indicates that Russian forces advanced in the southeastern part of the Kursk salient and entered the village of Kurilovka.

After establishing control over the area around the Psel river, Russia was able to cross the Sudzha river and establish a foothold on its western bank in the eastern outskirts of Kurilovka. They were then able to build on their success and advance into the main part of Kurilovka, cutting the village into two pieces. The main part of the Ukrainian controlled territory here is probably in the northern part of the village.

Once Kurilovka falls, Russian forces will need to advance onto the tactical heights west of the settlement, as accumulating forces inside Kurilovka will be difficult due to Ukrainian fire control over it from these same heights. It's possible that this will be done by squeezing the Ukrainians out from the direction of Guevo while simultaneously attacking the heights from Kurilovka, although this will require much more manpower, which can be difficult to transfer due to the swampy terrain around the intersection of the Psel and Sudzha rivers, as well as due to the proximity with the international border where Ukraine holds the high ground.

+ ~1.79km² in favour of Russia.

What's a battle that took place in the war in Ukraine that you will never forget?

Mine is the battle of Stepove - Northwest of Avdiivka.

I think it's about time that I list my sources for territorial changes in Ukraine. This is something I should've done a long time ago.

Reliable sources (for yellow/purple polygons - if two or more agree on the same thing):

https://news.1rj.ru/str/DeepStateUA
https://news.1rj.ru/str/divgen
https://news.1rj.ru/str/zvofront
https://news.1rj.ru/str/KURAKHOVOSELIDOVOPOKROVSK
https://news.1rj.ru/str/motopatriot
https://news.1rj.ru/str/creamy_caprice (geolocated changes)

Other sources (for yellow drawn-on polygons)

https://news.1rj.ru/str/beard_tim
https://news.1rj.ru/str/frontukrua
https://news.1rj.ru/str/belarusian_silovik
https://news.1rj.ru/str/condottieros
https://news.1rj.ru/str/masnochannel
https://news.1rj.ru/str/officer_alex33
https://news.1rj.ru/str/StorMap365
https://news.1rj.ru/str/muchnoyairborne
https://news.1rj.ru/str/zvizdecmanhustu
https://news.1rj.ru/str/osetin20
https://news.1rj.ru/str/bahshiddemon
https://news.1rj.ru/str/stanislav_osman
https://news.1rj.ru/str/Suriyak_maps
https://news.1rj.ru/str/Militaryp0
https://news.1rj.ru/str/polk105
https://news.1rj.ru/str/t3mny

Hope this helps!

Btw, I don't necessarily endorse any of these sources, I just use them for news.

Recent reports by multiple reliable sources suggest that Russian forces have likely advanced in the direction of the Oskil River on the southern Oskil bridgehead and have entered the village of Lozova.

Russian forces likely advanced from two directions. The main push would've been from the north through the low-lying ground, where Russian forces were likely able to break into the northern houses of the village, taking up positions there.

The secondary push would've been from the east, where the Russians likely captured the rest of these tactical heights. This puts any remaining Ukrainian formations in the southern part of Lozova under Russian fire control and surveillance, as well as at a risk of encirclement.

Once this village falls, the Russians will need to secure the next set of tactical heights behind it, although in my opinion this will occur not by a direct attack on them from the east, but rather by an attack from the north were Russia already controls part of the heights, meaning that they won't have to conduct any potentially costly uphill battles.

Geolocated footage indicates that Ukrainian forces advanced in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast and have seized new parts of the village of Kam'yans'ke.

Following reports of renewed Ukrainian assault operations here, footage surfaced showing Russian forces shelling Ukrainian positions in the southern part of Kam'yans'ke, confirming a small Ukrainian advance.

Ukrainian forces likely advanced from their positions near the bridge on the E150 highway, and advanced west into the main part of the southern residential area, clearing houses as they went.

This could be to secure the western flank of the small Ukrainian salient to the southeast in the direction of Luhove in preparation for further limited assault operations, or it could be a one-off where they saw an opportunity and took advantage of it. I'm more inclined to believe the former, as significantly increased Ukrainian shelling on the nearby town of Vasylivka and its surroundings were reported prior to these movements.

+ ~0.46km² in favour of Ukraine

New Footage has surfaced from near the city of Tyumen in Southern Russia, which shows a train travelling west towards Ukraine, carrying even more North Korean M-1978 “Koksan” 170mm Self-Propelled Artillery Guns. However, the most interesting part of this video is that it shows what could be several Pukguksong-2 (Kn-15) Medium-Range Ballistic Missiles.

The Pukguksong-2 MRBM is a two-stage missile and has an estimated range of between 1,200 and 2,000 km. It can carry either a nuclear or conventional warhead.

Sudan has declined a Russian offer for the construction of a Russian Red Sea Naval base on Sudanese territory.

The civil war in Sudan has significantly affected the ratification process of agreements between the two nations, especially considering Russia's initial support for the rebel RSF forces through the Wagner PMC, before they switched to supporting the Sudanese government. It's possible that they saw that the RSF wasn't going to take the important coastal areas of Sudan, especially after their initial failed attack on the key Nile River military hub of Merowe in the first days of the war.

The construction of a Russian naval base on the Red Sea coast has been discussed since 2019 but was postponed in February 2024. However, according to two Sudanese Intelligence officials and four Western officials, in recent months, Russian and Iran have been in talks with the Sudanese government to build military bases in the de facto capital of Port Sudan. These talks were very important as Russia risks losing their naval and air bases in Syria following the fall of Assad's government.

One Sudanese intelligence official reported that in order to reach an agreement on the construction of a naval base, Russia even offered the local authorities a modern S-400 anti-aircraft missile system. Apparently, Sudan rejected the offer fearing it could provoke a backlash from the U.S. and other Western countries.

Despite this, fuel supplies to Sudan have resumed, with Russia exporting 2.8 million barrels of diesel and gasoline to Sudan, which accounted for approximately 47% of all of Sudan's imports. Additionally, in late November, according to the Sudanese ministry of energy, representatives of the energy ministry held talks with Russian Gazprom management to restore damaged oil infrastructure, develop oil fields, and build a new oil pipeline and refinery in Port Sudan.

One Sudanese intelligence officer stated that Russia is also providing intelligence support to the Sudanese army. This shows that Sudan is toeing a fine line between the east and west. They are accepting military assistance from Russia but are simultaneously attempting to keep on relatively good terms with the west who have repeatedly called for a ceasefire in Sudan. It also suggests that Russia is attempting to repair their relations with the Sudanese government following their initial support for the RSF.

However, the construction of a Russian naval base likely remains a contentious issue due to its importance to Russia. Justin Lynch, a researcher at the Conflict Observatory stated that "Russia needs money and a naval base on the Red Sea, and an alliance with the army means the ability to sell weapons and potentially get a facility in Port Sudan."

Viktor Murakhovsky, who is a military expert, and the editor-in-chief of the Arsenal of the Fatherland magazine said that "by deploying the first naval base since the Soviet era in Africa, Russia could control the route through the Suez Canal and ensure a permanent presence in the Indian Ocean, lost in the post-Soviet years."