Russia has begun attacking Pokrovsk with FAB-250 glide bombs once again, after a few days of mostly artillery and MLRS strikes.

Several strikes were recorded in Pokrovsk city, while other impacts were reported in the city of Rodynske, further north. There are reports of injuries here.

There were also additional FAB-250 impacts reported in various nearby villages.

🇧🇫🤝🇬🇭 — Burkina Faso de factor leader Ibrahim Traore lands in Accra, Ghana to attend the inauguration of the country's new elected president Mahama.

This is the first time Traore travelled outside AES (Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso) countries since his 2022 coup.

One of the most interesting things I find about the war in Ukraine is how easy it is to predict Russias future moves in the short term.

The main things you have to do is pinpoint the most likely goals, and figure out how they will reach these goals by looking at previous patterns and the topography of the area, while also taking into account defensive positions, defensive nodes and natural features.

This process may sound complex, but once you visualize it, it becomes much more obvious.

For example, natural features such as trees are often useful for cover from FPV drones and artillery, while Russia will also want to move along the high ground where possible in order to exert fire control and maintain surveillance over the surrounding areas.

Obviously, there is more to it if you want to plot more precise routes and attack vectors, but for the most part and in most places, if you give it enough thought, it is possible to accurately predict future moves.

1 Russian Tu-95MS departed from Olenya air base in Murmansk Oblast and is flying south to Engels-2 air base in Saratov Oblast, likely to be equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles. Once this is done, it will fly back to Olenya, meaning that there will be at least 7 equipped Tu-95MS aircraft stationed there, ready for a missile strike on Ukraine.

A MiG-31K is airborne. It can carry the Kinzhal hypersonic missile.

The purpose of the flight is currently unknown.

It's returning to Savasleyka air base in Nizhny Novgorod Oblast. Just training.

Recent reports from reliable sources indicate that Russian forces continued to advance around Velyka Novosilka.

On the western flank, Russian forces made two small advances down two separate treelines, threatening the encirclement of any remaining Ukrainian positions in the small salient that formedhere.

However, the main progress was made on the eastern flank. Russian forces were able to advance with multiple assault vectors to the north and south of Novyi Komar, further strengthening their spearhead into the village, and ruling out any possibility of it being cut off by Ukrainian counterattacks.

Russian forces captured the relatively undefended northwestern approaches of Velyka Novosilka, advancing down the road, and nearby treelines, while also reaching the bridge where the O0509 highway crosses the Mokri Yaly river to the north of Novyi Komar.

+ ~7.90km² in favour of Russia.

Recent reports from reliable sources indicate that Russian forces have advanced on the eastern flank of Pokrovsk and are approaching the Pokrovsk-Kostyantynivka highway, which is a key logistics route for Ukraine.

Russian forces advanced from positions in Vozdvyzhenka along two treelines. The first lead northwest, before branching off to the southwest. The second led to a treeline intersection where a large trench fortification is. Russian infantry managed to clear it from a Ukrainian presence.

This puts Russian forces just over 2km from the highway.

+ ~2.48km² in favour of Russia.

Geolocated footage indicates that Russian forces continue to advance in the salient southwest of Kurakhove, and have approached the village of Yantarne.

Russia is continuing to incrementally advance towards Yantarne by moving along the northern bank of the Sukhi Yaly river. After they established control over the forested area, they expanded their zone of control to the north, by advancing down one treeline, and branching off onto another, although it is possible that this second treeline was captured by an assault from the western part of the forest.

There was also a small advance further north, where Russian forces marginally advanced down a treeline, capturing just over a third of it, however it's likely that they hold positions further west too.

+ ~2.25km² in favour of Russia.

Geolocated footage indicates that Russian forces have advanced in the Siversk direction.

Russia was able to complete the capture of the remaining Ukrainian strongholds in Luhansk Oblast that are south of Bilohorivka, and crossed the border into Donetsk Oblast. They advanced down one treeline, taking up new positions, before advancing down another one, reaching the end of it.

If Russia can advance further west towards Siversk, they will end up bypassing the village of Verkhnokamyanske, allowing for easier assault operations on its ruins.

+ ~6.88km² in favour of Russia.

Geolocated footage indicates that Ukrainian forces advanced in the northern Oskil bridgehead and re-entered the village of Kolisnykivka from the north.

Ukrainian forces conducted a tank raid towards the centre of the village, striking Russian positions in the houses. The location of this tank confirms that Ukraine holds positions in the northern houses of the village, indicating some form of counterattack sometime in the past month.

Ukrainian forces were also able to re-enter the forest north of Kolisnykivka, recapturing most of it, and pushing the rest into a grey zone. The main Russian positions are in the houses south of this forest, which will be used to prevent any possible future Ukrainian attacks.

However, in my opinion, this is an isolated attack as it is currently quite for Ukraine difficult to transfer equipment and manpower over the Oskil river as Russia has decreased the number of bridges that Ukraine can use, both because of their spearhead to the Oskil river which cuts the Ukrainian Oskil bridgehead in half, as well as their previous air strike campaigns against the river crossings, meaning that pontoon bridges are now the most viable option for Ukraine. However, this also makes them an easy target for Russian artillery shelling and airstrikes.

+ ~5.54km² in favour of Ukraine.

Recent reports from reliable sources indicate that Russian forces advanced in the southeastern part of the Kursk salient and completed the capture of Makhnovka.

After crossing a tributary of the Sudzha River and establishing positions in the houses on its northern bank, Russian forces went on to expand their zone of control bit by bit. They first advanced to the northwest, reaching the Sudzha river at another point, and then began attacking towards the village of Dmitriukov. Once they reached the southern outskirts of this village, they were able to push the AFU out of Makhnovka and into Zamoste.

+ ~2.62km² in favour of Russia.

Recent reports from reliable sources indicate that Russian forces advanced in the northwestern part of the Kursk salient and collapsed the western flank of the Ukrainian spearhead spearhead to Pogrebki.

Russian forces were able to advance through the fields and forests towards the western bank of the Malaya Loknya river and approached the villages there. The main village that Russia is trying to recapture is Malaya Loknya, which is a major Ukrainian stronghold and defensive node for the northern part of the Kursk salient. Once it falls, the rest of this part of Ukrainian-controlled Kursk Oblast will fall apart.

Due to this advance, any remaining Ukrainian formations in the villages of Pogrebki, Orlovka and Novaya Sorochina are at a significant risk of encirclement, although in saying that, Russia does now have fire control over the last Ukrainian-controlled road leading out of them.

+ ~14.2km² in favour of Russia.

Turkish airstrikes are being carried out on SDF positions near the Tishreen Dam in northern Syria. This coincides with attacks by SNA forces on villages north of Tishreen Dam and southeast of the city of Manbij.

🇲🇱🇧🇫⚡- Clashes broke out between the al-Qaeda affiliated, JNIM, and the Islamic State along the Fadar-Fadar front (Mali - Burkina Faso border).

Several Islamic State fighters were captured by JNIM.